HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Mismatch between blood products supply and demand is intensifying, but there’s little way to increase production capacity in short time, which offers a good time to invest blood products companies. </li>
<li>Investors should not be too greedy in front of every rally and rebound, but the proportion of medical expenditure and pension expenditure in China's GDP would still increase.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc-cc0c90b7-e854-4ba3-929b-914be1bd0d89" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32181:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH)</a> intends to IPO in Swiss. We think share price of CanSino would bounce back. It’s time to keep an eye on CanSino again. </li>
</ul>


Mismatch between blood products supply and demand is intensifying, but there’s little way to increase production capacity in short time, which offers a good time to invest blood products companies. 
Investors should not be too greedy in front of every rally and rebound, but the proportion of medical expenditure and pension expenditure in China's GDP would still increase.

CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH) intends to IPO in Swiss. We think share price of CanSino would bounce back. It’s time to keep an eye on CanSino again. 


China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.3)- CanSino, Blood Products Shortage, Don't Be Greedy in Front of Rally

Equity Capital Markets

Changchun BCHT Biotechnology C / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Single product structure is the biggest risk of BCHT. Varicella vaccine is hard to drive BCHT’s performance growth in the future and the sales of influenza vaccine are not ideal. </li>
<li>There’re concerns about the protection rate of attenuated zoster vaccine,which won't be officially sold until 2023H2/2024. It’s not sure whether the situation can be reversed by attenuated zoster vaccine alone.</li>
<li>BCHT is inferior to CanSino in terms of pipeline quality and R&amp;D capability. The investment value of BCHT is not high. We think its valuation should be lower than CanSino.</li>
</ul>


Single product structure is the biggest risk of BCHT. Varicella vaccine is hard to drive BCHT’s performance growth in the future and the sales of influenza vaccine are not ideal. 
There’re concerns about the protection rate of attenuated zoster vaccine,which won't be officially sold until 2023H2/2024. It’s not sure whether the situation can be reversed by attenuated zoster vaccine alone.
BCHT is inferior to CanSino in terms of pipeline quality and R&amp;D capability. The investment value of BCHT is not high. We think its valuation should be lower than CanSino.


Pre-IPO Changchun BCHT Biotechnology - The Risk of Single-Product Dependence and Uncertain Outlook

CanSino Biologics  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27739:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics Inc (6185 HK)</a> disclosed plans to publicly list in Switzerland, but the story of the fourth dose of COVID-19 vaccine is difficult to boost its stock price/valuation. </li>
<li>According to CanSino’s management,MCV4’s commercialization faced some challenges, which means 2022 annual performance may not be good. 2021 would probably be a high point of CanSino’s performance in recent years.</li>
<li>Share price could pullback when 2022 annual report is released, which offers a better opportunity if investors want to go long, considering CanSino's long-term investment value analyzed in prior insights. </li>
</ul>



CanSino Biologics Inc (6185 HK) disclosed plans to publicly list in Switzerland, but the story of the fourth dose of COVID-19 vaccine is difficult to boost its stock price/valuation. 
According to CanSino’s management,MCV4’s commercialization faced some challenges, which means 2022 annual performance may not be good. 2021 would probably be a high point of CanSino’s performance in recent years.
Share price could pullback when 2022 annual report is released, which offers a better opportunity if investors want to go long, considering CanSino's long-term investment value analyzed in prior insights. 


Pre-IPO CanSino Biologics - 2022 Annual Results May Be Ugly as MCV4 Commercialization Hit a Snag

<ul>
<li>The fake news about China reopen and the COVID-19 vaccine business are the major driving force for the rally of CanSino’s share price. However, such rally would not last long.</li>
<li>CanSino didn’t perform well in Q3 and 2022 would be a difficult year for CanSino. The major turning point of CanSino performance still lies in MCV4, not COVID-19 vaccines. </li>
<li>CanSino's H-share valuation has become more reasonable,but the downside risk in HKEX is hard to predict. Investors could consider offload and secure the gains. There’s better opportunity to long ahead.</li>
</ul>


The fake news about China reopen and the COVID-19 vaccine business are the major driving force for the rally of CanSino’s share price. However, such rally would not last long.
CanSino didn’t perform well in Q3 and 2022 would be a difficult year for CanSino. The major turning point of CanSino performance still lies in MCV4, not COVID-19 vaccines. 
CanSino's H-share valuation has become more reasonable,but the downside risk in HKEX is hard to predict. Investors could consider offload and secure the gains. There’s better opportunity to long ahead.


CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) - Time to Offload; the Rally May Not Last Long

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Due to the lack of competitiveness, Zhifei’s self-developed products cannot contribute solid performance to make up for the shrinking revenue of HPV vaccines when more competing products gradually launched.</li>
<li>The real potential of HPV vaccine market in China is not as big as imagined. So, the companies involved have the problem of inflated market values.</li>
<li>Due to low demand of COVID-19 vaccine/negative impact of pandemic on HPV vaccination, Zhifei's revenue YoY growth could be 10%-20%; Net profit YoY growth could be negative in 2022.</li>
</ul>


Due to the lack of competitiveness, Zhifei’s self-developed products cannot contribute solid performance to make up for the shrinking revenue of HPV vaccines when more competing products gradually launched.
The real potential of HPV vaccine market in China is not as big as imagined. So, the companies involved have the problem of inflated market values.
Due to low demand of COVID-19 vaccine/negative impact of pandemic on HPV vaccination, Zhifei's revenue YoY growth could be 10%-20%; Net profit YoY growth could be negative in 2022.


Zhifei Biological Products (300122.CH) - More Downside Ahead, with Untenable Logic in HPV Vaccine

China

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Company Ltd. researches, manufactures, and sells vaccines and biological products including prevention products, blood products, diagnostic reagents, and therapeutic agents.

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122 CH)

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Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122 CH)

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.3)- CanSino, Blood Products Shortage, Don't Be Greedy in Front of Rally

Contradiction between blood products supply and demand is intensifying. Cansino plans to IPO in Swiss -We see upside potential in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Changchun BCHT Biotechnology - The Risk of Single-Product Dependence and Uncertain Outlook

BCHT plans to IPO in Swiss. The risk of its over-reliance on a single product remains unresolved.The outlook of new attenuated zoster vaccine may...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO CanSino Biologics - 2022 Annual Results May Be Ugly as MCV4 Commercialization Hit a Snag

CanSino plans to IPO in Switzerland. MCV4 commercialization obstruction will aggravate 2022 performance pressure after the dividend of COVID-19...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) - Time to Offload; the Rally May Not Last Long

The fake news about China reopen and COVID-19 vaccine business are major driving force for the rally of CanSino’s share price, but such rally would...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zhifei Biological Products (300122.CH) - More Downside Ahead, with Untenable Logic in HPV Vaccine

Zhifei’s HPV vaccine will face real risk as competing products launch from 2024. The real potential of China HPV vaccine market is much lower than...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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