HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The market's assumption of no special dividends in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a>'s upcoming FY24 result is conservative, and this does not fit into its usual pattern. </li>
<li>Should it pay special DPS, the dividend yield may reach an attractive 10.7%. With its net cash position, CTF can financially maintain the average 135.6% payout ratio. </li>
<li>A return to its historical average dividend yield of 7.4% means that CTF's share price will need to go up by 45% from the current level.</li>
</ul>


The market's assumption of no special dividends in Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)'s upcoming FY24 result is conservative, and this does not fit into its usual pattern. 
Should it pay special DPS, the dividend yield may reach an attractive 10.7%. With its net cash position, CTF can financially maintain the average 135.6% payout ratio. 
A return to its historical average dividend yield of 7.4% means that CTF's share price will need to go up by 45% from the current level.


Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): What if Special Dividends Are Declared?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is an increasing likelihood that the duty-free quota of mainland tourists visiting Hong Kong will rise to Rmb30,000 from Rmb5,000. This will benefit many retail-related sectors.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luk-fook-holdings-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19054:1" rel="noopener">Luk Fook Holdings (590 HK)</a> is the best play among jewellery retailers given it has 65% of revenue from Hong Kong. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sa-sa-international-hldgs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20143:1" rel="noopener">Sa Sa International (178 HK)</a> is the cosmetics play.</li>
<li>Property investors including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:51:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Holdings (4 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hysan-development-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14169:1" rel="noopener">Hysan Development Co (14 HK)</a> will gain from the shopping malls in major tourist areas in Hong Kong.</li>
</ul>


There is an increasing likelihood that the duty-free quota of mainland tourists visiting Hong Kong will rise to Rmb30,000 from Rmb5,000. This will benefit many retail-related sectors.

Luk Fook Holdings (590 HK) is the best play among jewellery retailers given it has 65% of revenue from Hong Kong. Sa Sa International (178 HK) is the cosmetics play.
Property investors including Wharf Holdings (4 HK) and Hysan Development Co (14 HK) will gain from the shopping malls in major tourist areas in Hong Kong.


Increasing HK Duty Free Quota: The Beneficaries

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

Guangdong Chj Industry Co A / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Guangdong Chj Industry Co A (002345 CH) (CHJ) submitted an application to list H-shares on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>Despite higher valuation multiples, the company has been able to successfully generate higher sales and profits in the past several years. </li>
<li>The high and rising global gold prices have created a strong loyal customers and investor base that could positively impact this IPO on the HK Stock Exchange. </li>
</ul>


Guangdong Chj Industry Co A (002345 CH) (CHJ) submitted an application to list H-shares on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Despite higher valuation multiples, the company has been able to successfully generate higher sales and profits in the past several years. 
The high and rising global gold prices have created a strong loyal customers and investor base that could positively impact this IPO on the HK Stock Exchange. 


Guangdong CHJ Industry Files Preliminary IPO Prospectus in Hong Kong

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> is one of the best-performing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> constituents YTD, but it is time to take some money off the table.</li>
<li>At 5%, its 12-month forward dividend yield is about the lowest in the last five years, implying limited share price upside. Valuations have run ahead of earnings momentum.</li>
<li>The recent recovery in Hong Kong jewellery retail sales is partly due to the low base effect. Additionally, a higher gold price will weigh on demand for gold products. </li>
</ul>



Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) is one of the best-performing Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) constituents YTD, but it is time to take some money off the table.
At 5%, its 12-month forward dividend yield is about the lowest in the last five years, implying limited share price upside. Valuations have run ahead of earnings momentum.
The recent recovery in Hong Kong jewellery retail sales is partly due to the low base effect. Additionally, a higher gold price will weigh on demand for gold products. 


Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Lot Has Been Priced In

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhou-liu-fu-jewellery-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43706:1" rel="noopener">Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery (6168 HK)</a>'s 1H25 results are healthy, but there are challenges, including weak revenue growth and higher R&amp;D costs.  </li>
<li>Growth is almost entirely driven by online sales, but its plan to expand offline stores rapidly may erode net profit in the near term. </li>
<li>The stock has become the most expensive one in the sector, based on its PERs of 22.4x CY25F and 21.4x CY26F. Its 3-year EPS CAGR of 6.8% is uninspiring.</li>
</ul>



Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery (6168 HK)'s 1H25 results are healthy, but there are challenges, including weak revenue growth and higher R&amp;D costs.  
Growth is almost entirely driven by online sales, but its plan to expand offline stores rapidly may erode net profit in the near term. 
The stock has become the most expensive one in the sector, based on its PERs of 22.4x CY25F and 21.4x CY26F. Its 3-year EPS CAGR of 6.8% is uninspiring.


Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK): 1H25 Is Fine, but Still......

Hong Kong

Chow Sang Sang Holdings International Limited manufactures and retails gold and gem-set jewelry products.  The Company also retails watches, wholesales precious metals, invests in real estate, provides securities and commodity brokerage services, and trades in gold bullion.

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Chow Sang Sang Hldg (116 HK)

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): What if Special Dividends Are Declared?

The market's assumption of no special dividends for CTF's FY24 result may be off - potential for an attractive 10.7% yield. The share price could...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Increasing HK Duty Free Quota: The Beneficaries

Potential increase in duty-free quota for mainland visitors to Hong Kong to benefit retail sectors, with Luk Fook as the top jewellery play, Sa Sa...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Guangdong CHJ Industry Files Preliminary IPO Prospectus in Hong Kong

Guangdong Chj Industry Co A (002345 CH) (CHJ) submitted an application to list H-shares on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Douglas Kim

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Lot Has Been Priced In

CTF is a top-performing HSI constituent YTD, but with low dividend yield and high valuations, it may be time to sell. Recovery in HK jewellery...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK): 1H25 Is Fine, but Still......

Zhou Liu Fu has a healthy 1H25, but faces challenges with weak revenue growth and higher R&D costs. Expansion of offline stores may impact net...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): What if Special Dividends Are Declared?

​The market's assumption of no special dividends for CTF's FY24 result may be off - potential for an attractive 10.7% yield. The share price could...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Increasing HK Duty Free Quota: The Beneficaries

​Potential increase in duty-free quota for mainland visitors to Hong Kong to benefit retail sectors, with Luk Fook as the top jewellery play, Sa Sa...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Guangdong CHJ Industry Files Preliminary IPO Prospectus in Hong Kong

Guangdong Chj Industry Co A (002345 CH) (CHJ) submitted an application to list H-shares on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Douglas Kim

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Lot Has Been Priced In

CTF is a top-performing HSI constituent YTD, but with low dividend yield and high valuations, it may be time to sell. Recovery in HK jewellery...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK): 1H25 Is Fine, but Still......

​Zhou Liu Fu has a healthy 1H25, but faces challenges with weak revenue growth and higher R&D costs. Expansion of offline stores may impact net...

Osbert Tang, CFA

The market's assumption of no special dividends for CTF's FY24 result may be off - potential for an attractive 10.7% yield. The share price could...

Potential increase in duty-free quota for mainland visitors to Hong Kong to benefit retail sectors, with Luk Fook as the top jewellery play, Sa Sa...

Zhou Liu Fu has a healthy 1H25, but faces challenges with weak revenue growth and higher R&D costs. Expansion of offline stores may impact net...