Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astellas-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091:1" rel="noopener">Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)</a> reported 27% YoY revenue growth in Q1FY27. Core operating profit increased to ¥221.4B, up 56% YoY driven by cost optimization through sustainable margin transformation program.</li>
<li>Strategic brands (Padcev, Izervay, Veozah, Vyloy, Xospata), which recorded underlying growth of 43% YoY and contributed 25% of revenue, drove overall revenue growth.</li>
<li>Astellas reiterated FY27 guidance where they expect FY27 revenue to be ¥2,220B (up 3.8% YoY), core operating profit of ¥620B (up 11.6% YoY) and core profit of ¥460B (+8.4% YoY).</li>
</ul>



Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) reported 27% YoY revenue growth in Q1FY27. Core operating profit increased to ¥221.4B, up 56% YoY driven by cost optimization through sustainable margin transformation program.
Strategic brands (Padcev, Izervay, Veozah, Vyloy, Xospata), which recorded underlying growth of 43% YoY and contributed 25% of revenue, drove overall revenue growth.
Astellas reiterated FY27 guidance where they expect FY27 revenue to be ¥2,220B (up 3.8% YoY), core operating profit of ¥620B (up 11.6% YoY) and core profit of ¥460B (+8.4% YoY).


Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Growth Momentum Intact in Q1; FY27 Guidance Reiterated

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-pharma-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1935:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP)</a> revenue was up 20% YoY to ¥129.5B in Q1FY27 on the back of continued strong sales in North America (up 35% YoY to ¥94.3B).</li>
<li>Orgovyx (revenue jumped 58% YoY to ¥51.6B) witnessed solid patient growth in medicare patients while Gemtesa (revenue rose 42% to ¥30.2B) improved market share through clinical differentiation.</li>
<li>Company reiterated FY27 guidance. Core drugs will hold fort and eventually Enzomenib &amp; Amchepry is expected to follow suit in near to medium term.</li>
</ul>



Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) revenue was up 20% YoY to ¥129.5B in Q1FY27 on the back of continued strong sales in North America (up 35% YoY to ¥94.3B).
Orgovyx (revenue jumped 58% YoY to ¥51.6B) witnessed solid patient growth in medicare patients while Gemtesa (revenue rose 42% to ¥30.2B) improved market share through clinical differentiation.
Company reiterated FY27 guidance. Core drugs will hold fort and eventually Enzomenib &amp; Amchepry is expected to follow suit in near to medium term.


Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): North America Continue To Be Robust in Q1FY27, Enzomenib Progressing Well

<ul>
<li>Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) announced positive topline results for Phase 3 study comparing zasocitinib (TAK-279), an investigational, highly selective oral TYK2 inhibitor, to deucravacitinib in adults with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis.</li>
<li>Takeda also presented additional results from two pivotal studies, showing oveporexton (TAK-861), an OX2R-selective agonist, improved daily functioning as well as cognitive and sleep-related symptoms associated with narcolepsy type 1.</li>
<li>Takeda’s pipeline is positioned to support both the near-term and long-term sustained growth of the company.</li>
</ul>


Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) announced positive topline results for Phase 3 study comparing zasocitinib (TAK-279), an investigational, highly selective oral TYK2 inhibitor, to deucravacitinib in adults with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis.
Takeda also presented additional results from two pivotal studies, showing oveporexton (TAK-861), an OX2R-selective agonist, improved daily functioning as well as cognitive and sleep-related symptoms associated with narcolepsy type 1.
Takeda’s pipeline is positioned to support both the near-term and long-term sustained growth of the company.


Takeda Pharmaceutical: Zasocitinib, Oveprexton Positive Results Shows Takeda’s Pipeline Strength

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• THE POST-COVID ROTATION •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/191/288/original/2021-02-28_08-38-14.png?1614469105" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="191288"></figure><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/191/290/original/2021-02-28_08-57-32.png?1614470265" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="191290"></figure></section></section><section class="figure"><div style="text-align: center;" class="content-caption"> Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><p><strong>THE 2021 ROTATION ACCELERATES</strong> - As we noted in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-the-post-covid-rotation-from-growth-to-value-begins-02-05-results-revisions-update" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47877" rel="noopener">The Post-COVID Rotation from Growth to Value Begins</a>, the Japanese equity market has been led by overvalued and overvalued for most of the last year overbought high-quality growth companies in the <strong>Technology Hardware</strong>, <strong>Electrical Equipment</strong>, <strong>Internet</strong>, and <strong>Healthcare</strong> Sectors. These companies were deemed to be 'COVID-resistant' and were consistently well-bid regardless of price. The stocks leading this 'charge' were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 (2413 JP),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monotaro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15441:1" rel="noopener">MonotaRO (3064 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugai-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1" rel="noopener">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec (6594 JP)</a>, while the only cyclical Sector that has seen a major recovery was Energy. Meanwhile, shares in domestically-orientated Sectors and companies heavily exposed to COVID-related delines in business activity languished despite valuations reaching ten or twenty-year lows. </p><p><strong>PEAKED?</strong> - Over the last twenty trading days during which TOPIX reached 1,974.99. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> breached 30,000, many of these market leaders have seen a significant correction, while the market has rotated into domestic, cyclical, and financial Sectors - as illustrated by our Sector Relative Price Score timelines in the chart above. In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> Section below, we will review the current market technicals after Friday's 4% N225 decline and look at the leading stocks on both 'sides' of this rotation trade.</p>

• THE POST-COVID ROTATION • Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsTHE 2021 ROTATION ACCELERATES - As we noted in The Post-COVID Rotation from Growth to Value Begins, the Japanese equity market has been led by overvalued and overvalued for most of the last year overbought high-quality growth companies in the Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Internet, and Healthcare Sectors. These companies were deemed to be 'COVID-resistant' and were consistently well-bid regardless of price. The stocks leading this 'charge' were M3 (2413 JP),Lasertec (6920 JP), MonotaRO (3064 JP), Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP), and Nidec (6594 JP), while the only cyclical Sector that has seen a major recovery was Energy. Meanwhile, shares in domestically-orientated Sectors and companies heavily exposed to COVID-related delines in business activity languished despite valuations reaching ten or twenty-year lows. PEAKED? - Over the last twenty trading days during which TOPIX reached 1,974.99. The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) breached 30,000, many of these market leaders have seen a significant correction, while the market has rotated into domestic, cyclical, and financial Sectors - as illustrated by our Sector Relative Price Score timelines in the chart above. In the DETAIL Section below, we will review the current market technicals after Friday's 4% N225 decline and look at the leading stocks on both 'sides' of this rotation trade.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Post-COVID Rotation Accelerates

Japan

Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells pharmaceuticals products. The Company develops drugs in the fields of cancer, infectious diseases, bone, blood, and circulatory systems. Chugai Pharmaceutical also conducts research studies on drugs with private and public medical research institutions globally.

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Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JT)

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Growth Momentum Intact in Q1; FY27 Guidance Reiterated

Astellas Pharma sees strong revenue growth in Q1FY27, driven by strategic brands and cost optimization, reiterates FY27 guidance with positive...

Tina Banerjee

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): North America Continue To Be Robust in Q1FY27, Enzomenib Progressing Well

Sumitomo Pharma's Q1FY27 revenue rose 20% YoY to ¥129.5B, driven by strong sales in North America. Orgovyx and Gemtesa saw significant revenue...

Tina Banerjee

Takeda Pharmaceutical: Zasocitinib, Oveprexton Positive Results Shows Takeda’s Pipeline Strength

Takeda Pharmaceutical reports positive Phase 3 results for zasocitinib and oveporexton, showcasing potential for sustained growth and pipeline...

Tina Banerjee

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Post-COVID Rotation Accelerates

Over the last 20 trading days during which TOPIX reached 1,974.99, many market leaders have seen a significant correction, and there has been a...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Growth Momentum Intact in Q1; FY27 Guidance Reiterated

​Astellas Pharma sees strong revenue growth in Q1FY27, driven by strategic brands and cost optimization, reiterates FY27 guidance with positive...

Tina Banerjee

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): North America Continue To Be Robust in Q1FY27, Enzomenib Progressing Well

​Sumitomo Pharma's Q1FY27 revenue rose 20% YoY to ¥129.5B, driven by strong sales in North America. Orgovyx and Gemtesa saw significant revenue...

Tina Banerjee

Takeda Pharmaceutical: Zasocitinib, Oveprexton Positive Results Shows Takeda’s Pipeline Strength

​Takeda Pharmaceutical reports positive Phase 3 results for zasocitinib and oveporexton, showcasing potential for sustained growth and pipeline...

Tina Banerjee

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Post-COVID Rotation Accelerates

Over the last 20 trading days during which TOPIX reached 1,974.99, many market leaders have seen a significant correction, and there has been a...

Campbell Gunn

Astellas Pharma sees strong revenue growth in Q1FY27, driven by strategic brands and cost optimization, reiterates FY27 guidance with positive...

Sumitomo Pharma's Q1FY27 revenue rose 20% YoY to ¥129.5B, driven by strong sales in North America. Orgovyx and Gemtesa saw significant revenue...

Takeda Pharmaceutical reports positive Phase 3 results for zasocitinib and oveporexton, showcasing potential for sustained growth and pipeline...