Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> reported 2QFY03/2023 results last week. Reported revenue increased 18.6% YoY to JPY1.0trn (vs consensus JPY962bn) while OP increased 7.2% YoY to JPY104.4bn (vs consensus JPY119bn).</li>
<li>Growth in sales was driven by Takeda’s blockbuster drug Entyvio (+36.6% YoY), Takhzyro (+75.8%) and immunoglobulin products (HYQVIA in particular).</li>
<li>The company also has raised its peak sales estimate for Entyvio to US$7.5-9.0bn (from US$5.5-6.5bn) driven by further market growth and market share expansion.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) reported 2QFY03/2023 results last week. Reported revenue increased 18.6% YoY to JPY1.0trn (vs consensus JPY962bn) while OP increased 7.2% YoY to JPY104.4bn (vs consensus JPY119bn).
Growth in sales was driven by Takeda’s blockbuster drug Entyvio (+36.6% YoY), Takhzyro (+75.8%) and immunoglobulin products (HYQVIA in particular).
The company also has raised its peak sales estimate for Entyvio to US$7.5-9.0bn (from US$5.5-6.5bn) driven by further market growth and market share expansion.


Takeda: Thrilling Journey Ahead with a Dengue Vaccine Launch and New Approvals

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaken-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18819:1" rel="noopener">Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP)</a> is reporting declining revenue from its three largest selling products, due to NHI price revision. These products together contribute more than 60% of total revenue.</li>
<li>The company’s newly launched products are growing at a rapid pace. However, the fastest growing product Ecclock contribute just 2% of total revenue.</li>
<li>Kaken guided for just 1% y/y revenue growth and 12% y/y decline in operating profit in FY23. Due to pipeline expansion, R&amp;D expenses are likely to remain elevated.</li>
</ul>



Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP) is reporting declining revenue from its three largest selling products, due to NHI price revision. These products together contribute more than 60% of total revenue.
The company’s newly launched products are growing at a rapid pace. However, the fastest growing product Ecclock contribute just 2% of total revenue.
Kaken guided for just 1% y/y revenue growth and 12% y/y decline in operating profit in FY23. Due to pipeline expansion, R&amp;D expenses are likely to remain elevated.


Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): Falling Revenue of Top-Selling Drugs Limit Near-Term Growth Prospect

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a>  reported 1QFY03/23 results yesterday. Reported revenue grew 2.4% YoY to JPY972.5bn (vs consensus JPY929.6bn) while OP decreased 39.4% YoY to JPY150.5bn (vs consensus JPY173.1bn).</li>
<li>Decline in OP was due to one-time gain from the sale of Japan diabetes portfolio of JPY131.4bn in 1Q last year, however, excluding this, OP increased 28.4% YoY in 1QFY03/2023.</li>
<li>Takeda’s share price dropped 1.5% at the end of today’s trading as investor sentiment has changed post earnings as some of the company’s key drugs have started experiencing generic erosion.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)  reported 1QFY03/23 results yesterday. Reported revenue grew 2.4% YoY to JPY972.5bn (vs consensus JPY929.6bn) while OP decreased 39.4% YoY to JPY150.5bn (vs consensus JPY173.1bn).
Decline in OP was due to one-time gain from the sale of Japan diabetes portfolio of JPY131.4bn in 1Q last year, however, excluding this, OP increased 28.4% YoY in 1QFY03/2023.
Takeda’s share price dropped 1.5% at the end of today’s trading as investor sentiment has changed post earnings as some of the company’s key drugs have started experiencing generic erosion.


Takeda 1Q: Top Line Beat Consensus – Development Pipeline Continues to Progress

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP)</a> has raised revenue guidance for H1FY23 by 6%, due to continued strong performance of its four global brands, which contribute more than 35% of total revenue.</li>
<li>However, the company has cut operating and net profit guidance for H1FY23, mainly due to one-off charge related to elimination of unrealized gains on inventories caused by yen depreciation.</li>
<li>Otsuka received positive CHMP opinion for lupus nephritis drug, Lupkynis. This will pave the way for gaining marketing approval of the drug in Europe.</li>
</ul>



Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) has raised revenue guidance for H1FY23 by 6%, due to continued strong performance of its four global brands, which contribute more than 35% of total revenue.
However, the company has cut operating and net profit guidance for H1FY23, mainly due to one-off charge related to elimination of unrealized gains on inventories caused by yen depreciation.
Otsuka received positive CHMP opinion for lupus nephritis drug, Lupkynis. This will pave the way for gaining marketing approval of the drug in Europe.


Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Revenue Guidance Raise and New Products Line-Up Enhance Conviction

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The TOPIX Free-Float Rebalance for July will be executed tomorrow at the close. </li>
<li>There should be about US$3.5bn to trade one-way with 150+ names down-weighted, 36 names up-weighted, and one inclusion - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari Inc (4385 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>The trade has performed well so far, and excess volume appears limited in most cases. It appears uncrowded.</li>
</ul>


The TOPIX Free-Float Rebalance for July will be executed tomorrow at the close. 
There should be about US$3.5bn to trade one-way with 150+ names down-weighted, 36 names up-weighted, and one inclusion - Mercari Inc (4385 JP).
The trade has performed well so far, and excess volume appears limited in most cases. It appears uncrowded.


TOPIX July Rebalance: Good Performance, Low Progression, Should Trade Right Way

Japan

Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells pharmaceuticals products. The Company develops drugs in the fields of cancer, infectious diseases, bone, blood, and circulatory systems. Chugai Pharmaceutical also conducts research studies on drugs with private and public medical research institutions globally.

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Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JT)

Takeda: Thrilling Journey Ahead with a Dengue Vaccine Launch and New Approvals

After more-than a decade research, Takeda is all-set to launch its dengue vaccine which will be the industry’s first immunisation against Dengue...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): Falling Revenue of Top-Selling Drugs Limit Near-Term Growth Prospect

Kaken’s top selling drugs are reporting declining revenue. Fast growing new product contribute just 2% of revenue and is yet to gather momentum to...

Tina Banerjee

Takeda 1Q: Top Line Beat Consensus – Development Pipeline Continues to Progress

Takeda's reported revenue for 1QFY03/23 grew 2.4% YoY and beat consensus by a huge 46% while OP fell below consensus. Takeda continues to push...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Revenue Guidance Raise and New Products Line-Up Enhance Conviction

Otsuka has raised H1FY23 revenue guidance. However, profits will be negatively impacted by one-off charges. Guidance raise and new product line-up...

Tina Banerjee

TOPIX July Rebalance: Good Performance, Low Progression, Should Trade Right Way

The JULY TOPIX FFW Rebalance is tomorrow (28 July) at the close. It is $3.5bn one-way and the top 10 sells are all quite large. Excellent LOC...

Travis Lundy

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