Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Eisai is eyeing for Leqembi global revenue of ¥250–280B in FY28. Kaken Pharmaceutical inlicensed dermatology drug candidate from Alumis. Kaken’s onychomycosis drug got approval in Italy.</li>
<li>Mochida Pharmaceutical has applied for marketing approval of Actembra biosimilar in Japan. Shionogi has filed for indication expansion of Xocova for post-exposure prophylaxis of COVID-19 in Japan.</li>
<li>SK Bioscience got approval for Phase 3 clinical trial of 21-valent pneumococcal vaccine in European countries. PharmaEssential obtained approval for Phase 3 clinical trial of Ropeginterferon alfa-2b in China.</li>
</ul>


Eisai is eyeing for Leqembi global revenue of ¥250–280B in FY28. Kaken Pharmaceutical inlicensed dermatology drug candidate from Alumis. Kaken’s onychomycosis drug got approval in Italy.
Mochida Pharmaceutical has applied for marketing approval of Actembra biosimilar in Japan. Shionogi has filed for indication expansion of Xocova for post-exposure prophylaxis of COVID-19 in Japan.
SK Bioscience got approval for Phase 3 clinical trial of 21-valent pneumococcal vaccine in European countries. PharmaEssential obtained approval for Phase 3 clinical trial of Ropeginterferon alfa-2b in China.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Mar 30)- Eisai, Kaken, Mochida, Shionogi, SK Bioscience, PharmaEssentia

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In a big surprise, there is only one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> in March with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logistics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11909:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The non-inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is a big surprise given that the stock was ranked among the top 75 stocks by liquidity. There could be selling near-term.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> has been added at a 0.5 PAF and that will increase to 1 in September. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> could be capped yet again in September.</li>
</ul>


In a big surprise, there is only one change for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in March with BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) replacing Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP). 
The non-inclusion of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a big surprise given that the stock was ranked among the top 75 stocks by liquidity. There could be selling near-term.

BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) has been added at a 0.5 PAF and that will increase to 1 in September. Fast Retailing (9983 JP) could be capped yet again in September.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Baycurrent (6532) Replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301); Kokusai Elec👎

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.</li>
<li>Near-Term we wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.</li>
<li>This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.
Near-Term we wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.
This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.


Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astellas-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091:1" rel="noopener">Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)</a> reported a 22% YoY (6% from favourable Fx rates) revenue growth to ¥1,453B in 9MFY25. The U.S. market continue to be key, contributing 46% of revenue.</li>
<li>Operating profit rose 44% YoY to ¥297.5B, with operating margin expanding 310bps to 20.5%. Core profit increased 35% YoY to ¥223B, with margins improving 150bps to 15.4% in 9MFY25.</li>
<li>Guidance revised upward, with revenue now expected at ¥1,900B on robust XTANDI performance and favorable forex movement.</li>
</ul>



Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) reported a 22% YoY (6% from favourable Fx rates) revenue growth to ¥1,453B in 9MFY25. The U.S. market continue to be key, contributing 46% of revenue.
Operating profit rose 44% YoY to ¥297.5B, with operating margin expanding 310bps to 20.5%. Core profit increased 35% YoY to ¥223B, with margins improving 150bps to 15.4% in 9MFY25.
Guidance revised upward, with revenue now expected at ¥1,900B on robust XTANDI performance and favorable forex movement.


Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): 9MFY25 Result- Strategic Brands Strong; Margins Expand; Guidance Raised

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-pharma-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1935:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP)</a> reported 25% YoY revenue growth during 9MFY25, driven by North America.</li>
<li>Restructuring and streamlining efforts help curb expenses and post a core operating profit of ¥21B during 9MFY25 compared to an operating loss of ¥96B in same period last year.</li>
<li>Sumitomo is now expecting FY25 revenue to be ¥381B, up by ¥43B from the previous forecast and a core net profit of ¥16B.</li>
</ul>



Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) reported 25% YoY revenue growth during 9MFY25, driven by North America.
Restructuring and streamlining efforts help curb expenses and post a core operating profit of ¥21B during 9MFY25 compared to an operating loss of ¥96B in same period last year.
Sumitomo is now expecting FY25 revenue to be ¥381B, up by ¥43B from the previous forecast and a core net profit of ¥16B.


Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Robust 9MFY25 Revenues; Back in Black; Guidance Revised

Japan

Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells pharmaceuticals products. The Company develops drugs in the fields of cancer, infectious diseases, bone, blood, and circulatory systems. Chugai Pharmaceutical also conducts research studies on drugs with private and public medical research institutions globally.

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Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JT)

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Mar 30)- Eisai, Kaken, Mochida, Shionogi, SK Bioscience, PharmaEssentia

Eisai outlined Leqembi sales target. Kaken inlicensed drug candidate. Mochida filed for Actembra biosimilar. Shionogi applied for label expansion...

Tina Banerjee

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Baycurrent (6532) Replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301); Kokusai Elec👎

Baycurrent replaces Mitsubishi Logistics in the NKY at the close 31 March. Kokusai Electric misses out and Fast Retailing is capped. One-way...

Brian Freitas

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany $DAX $EWG and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI above $116. $SPX...

Vermilion Research

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): 9MFY25 Result- Strategic Brands Strong; Margins Expand; Guidance Raised

Astellas Pharma reports strong revenue growth and profit increase in 9MFY25, with U.S. market being the key contributor. Guidance revised upward...

Tina Banerjee

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Robust 9MFY25 Revenues; Back in Black; Guidance Revised

Sumitomo Pharma sees 25% revenue growth, with restructuring efforts leading to a turnaround in operating profit for 9MFY25. Updated forecast...

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Mar 30)- Eisai, Kaken, Mochida, Shionogi, SK Bioscience, PharmaEssentia

Eisai outlined Leqembi sales target. Kaken inlicensed drug candidate. Mochida filed for Actembra biosimilar. Shionogi applied for label expansion...

Tina Banerjee

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Baycurrent (6532) Replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301); Kokusai Elec👎

Baycurrent replaces Mitsubishi Logistics in the NKY at the close 31 March. Kokusai Electric misses out and Fast Retailing is capped. One-way...

Brian Freitas

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany $DAX $EWG and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI above $116. $SPX...

Vermilion Research

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): 9MFY25 Result- Strategic Brands Strong; Margins Expand; Guidance Raised

​Astellas Pharma reports strong revenue growth and profit increase in 9MFY25, with U.S. market being the key contributor. Guidance revised upward...

Tina Banerjee

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Robust 9MFY25 Revenues; Back in Black; Guidance Revised

​Sumitomo Pharma sees 25% revenue growth, with restructuring efforts leading to a turnaround in operating profit for 9MFY25. Updated forecast...

Tina Banerjee

Astellas Pharma reports strong revenue growth and profit increase in 9MFY25, with U.S. market being the key contributor. Guidance revised upward...

Sumitomo Pharma sees 25% revenue growth, with restructuring efforts leading to a turnaround in operating profit for 9MFY25. Updated forecast...