Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage / MercadoLibre Achieves Full Investment Grade Status with S&amp;P Upgrade / Pemex Eyes US$8bn from Mixed Contracts</li>
<li>Initiating Coverage on Gerdau: IG Credit with US Exposure, Limited Spread Upside / Fitch Affirms Gerdau at BBB with Stable Outlook on Strong Fundamentals</li>
<li>Vista 2Q25: Results Reinforce Overweight, But Cash Burn and Liquidity Weaken Buffer / US Reinforces Argentina’s Appeal in YPF Expropriation Case</li>
</ul>


U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage / MercadoLibre Achieves Full Investment Grade Status with S&amp;P Upgrade / Pemex Eyes US$8bn from Mixed Contracts
Initiating Coverage on Gerdau: IG Credit with US Exposure, Limited Spread Upside / Fitch Affirms Gerdau at BBB with Stable Outlook on Strong Fundamentals
Vista 2Q25: Results Reinforce Overweight, But Cash Burn and Liquidity Weaken Buffer / US Reinforces Argentina’s Appeal in YPF Expropriation Case


<ul>
<li>Brazilian Credits in Our Coverage Show Resilience, as U.S. Tariffs Likely to Have a Modest Impact Despite Limited Macro Policy Flexibility</li>
<li>Suzano is most exposed to U.S. tariffs, but global scale, cost leadership, and FX tailwinds help cushion the impact. Gerdau could benefit from tighter U.S. supply conditions in the US. </li>
<li>CSN has just 4% U.S. exposure, with limited risk unless quotas tighten. Minerva’s 5% is manageable, supported by a diversified export base that enables flexible rerouting.</li>
</ul>


Brazilian Credits in Our Coverage Show Resilience, as U.S. Tariffs Likely to Have a Modest Impact Despite Limited Macro Policy Flexibility
Suzano is most exposed to U.S. tariffs, but global scale, cost leadership, and FX tailwinds help cushion the impact. Gerdau could benefit from tighter U.S. supply conditions in the US. 
CSN has just 4% U.S. exposure, with limited risk unless quotas tighten. Minerva’s 5% is manageable, supported by a diversified export base that enables flexible rerouting.


U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/nameson-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Nameson Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Sunny Optical Technology Group</a></li><li><a href='/entities/genting-bhd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Genting Bhd</a></li><li><a href='/entities/shui-on-land-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Shui On Land</a></li><li><a href='/entities/health-and-happiness-h-h-int' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Health And Happiness (H&H)</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Nameson HoldingsSunny Optical Technology GroupGenting BhdShui On LandHealth And Happiness (H&H)and more...

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We assess CSN's ESG as "Adequate", in line with its "Adequate" Environmental score. The company has a "Strong" score for the Social pillar, but a "Weak" Governance score. Controversies are "Immaterial" and Disclosure is "Strong".

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).  We assess CSN's ESG as "Adequate", in line with its "Adequate" Environmental score. The company has a "Strong" score for the Social pillar, but a "Weak" Governance score. Controversies are "Immaterial" and Disclosure is "Strong".  

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/tata-motors-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Tata Motors Ltd</a></li><li><a href='/entities/anton-oilfield-services-gp' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Anton Oilfield</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-south-city-holdings' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China South City</a></li><li><a href='/entities/panda-green-energy-group-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Panda Green</a></li><li><a href='/entities/gcl-new-energy-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Gcl New Energy Holdings</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Tata Motors LtdAnton OilfieldChina South CityPanda GreenGcl New Energy Holdingsand more...

Brazil

Companhia Siderurgica Nacional S.A. (CSN) manufactures iron and steel in Brazil. The Company operates mines, an integrated steel mill, service centers, ports, and railroads.  CSN manufactures and distributes hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and galvanized steel products to the automobile, auto parts, civil construction, electrical equipment, and packaging industries.

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Cia Siderurgica Nacional Sa (CSNA3 BZ)

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

US tariffs impact Brazilian companies, MercadoLibre achieves investment grade, Pemex eyes $8bn, Gerdau coverage initiated, Vista 2Q25 results, US...

Leandro Gubler

U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage

Brazilian companies like Suzano, Gerdau, CSN, and Minerva show resilience against U.S. tariffs, with limited impact due to global scale, cost...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly Wrap - 21 Jul 2023

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

CSN - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We assess CSN's ESG as "Adequate",...

Lucror Analytics

Weekly Wrap - 26 Nov 2021

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

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EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​US tariffs impact Brazilian companies, MercadoLibre achieves investment grade, Pemex eyes $8bn, Gerdau coverage initiated, Vista 2Q25 results, US...

Leandro Gubler

U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage

​Brazilian companies like Suzano, Gerdau, CSN, and Minerva show resilience against U.S. tariffs, with limited impact due to global scale, cost...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly Wrap - 21 Jul 2023

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

CSN - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We assess CSN's ESG as "Adequate",...

Lucror Analytics

Weekly Wrap - 26 Nov 2021

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

US tariffs impact Brazilian companies, MercadoLibre achieves investment grade, Pemex eyes $8bn, Gerdau coverage initiated, Vista 2Q25 results, US...

Brazilian companies like Suzano, Gerdau, CSN, and Minerva show resilience against U.S. tariffs, with limited impact due to global scale, cost...