Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>Brazilian Credits in Our Coverage Show Resilience, as U.S. Tariffs Likely to Have a Modest Impact Despite Limited Macro Policy Flexibility</li>
<li>Suzano is most exposed to U.S. tariffs, but global scale, cost leadership, and FX tailwinds help cushion the impact. Gerdau could benefit from tighter U.S. supply conditions in the US. </li>
<li>CSN has just 4% U.S. exposure, with limited risk unless quotas tighten. Minerva’s 5% is manageable, supported by a diversified export base that enables flexible rerouting.</li>
</ul>


Brazilian Credits in Our Coverage Show Resilience, as U.S. Tariffs Likely to Have a Modest Impact Despite Limited Macro Policy Flexibility
Suzano is most exposed to U.S. tariffs, but global scale, cost leadership, and FX tailwinds help cushion the impact. Gerdau could benefit from tighter U.S. supply conditions in the US. 
CSN has just 4% U.S. exposure, with limited risk unless quotas tighten. Minerva’s 5% is manageable, supported by a diversified export base that enables flexible rerouting.


U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage