Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

Suzano 3Q25: Results Soft but Broadly In Line with Expectations

U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage

Initiating Coverage on SUZANO: Headline Risk Limits Upside Potential

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Operational Momentum: Strong volume recovery and cost efficiencies drove 4Q25 EBITDA above consensus, signaling a pivot toward healthy free cash flow generation despite cyclical commodity pricing headwinds.</li>
<li>
Deleveraging Focus: Strategic capex reduction of 20% in 2026 and improved pulp pricing visibility support the goal to reduce net debt to $11 billion, reinforcing balance sheet resilience.</li>
<li>
Selective Value: While overall spreads appear fair, the 2031 and 2032 bonds offer superior risk-adjusted carry and convexity compared to the expensive, rate-sensitive long end of the curve.</li>
</ul>



Operational Momentum: Strong volume recovery and cost efficiencies drove 4Q25 EBITDA above consensus, signaling a pivot toward healthy free cash flow generation despite cyclical commodity pricing headwinds.

Deleveraging Focus: Strategic capex reduction of 20% in 2026 and improved pulp pricing visibility support the goal to reduce net debt to $11 billion, reinforcing balance sheet resilience.

Selective Value: While overall spreads appear fair, the 2031 and 2032 bonds offer superior risk-adjusted carry and convexity compared to the expensive, rate-sensitive long end of the curve.


Suzano 4Q25: Volume Recovery Supports Healthy Cash Generation