Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

Initiating Coverage on SUZANO: Headline Risk Limits Upside Potential

Initiating Coverage on YPF: Outperform Opportunity Amid Macro and Shale Expansion

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>Suzano’s 3Q25 results were soft but broadly in line, with pulp volumes and prices weighing on margins. Healthier pricing and cost discipline should support gradual margin recovery.</li>
<li>We upgrade the 2031 notes to Overweight after spreads widened 21 bps, creating more attractive relative value versus LatAm BBB peers and Suzano’s own curve.</li>
<li>We expect improving pulp prices, Ribas cost efficiencies, and disciplined capital allocation to strengthen margins, liquidity, and deleveraging capacity over the next 9–12 months.</li>
</ul>


Suzano’s 3Q25 results were soft but broadly in line, with pulp volumes and prices weighing on margins. Healthier pricing and cost discipline should support gradual margin recovery.
We upgrade the 2031 notes to Overweight after spreads widened 21 bps, creating more attractive relative value versus LatAm BBB peers and Suzano’s own curve.
We expect improving pulp prices, Ribas cost efficiencies, and disciplined capital allocation to strengthen margins, liquidity, and deleveraging capacity over the next 9–12 months.


Suzano 3Q25: Results Soft but Broadly In Line with Expectations