Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.</li>
<li>Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.</li>
<li>Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.
Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.
Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials


Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apm-human-services-internation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34808:1" rel="noopener">APM Human Services Internation (APM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qantm-intellectual-property" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24317:1" rel="noopener">Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/probiotec-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12047:1" rel="noopener">Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a>, Silver Lake.
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/roland-dg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10653:1" rel="noopener">Roland DG Corp (6789 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinda-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:475:1" rel="noopener">Vinda International (3331 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snow-peak-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7218:1" rel="noopener">Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: APM Human Services Internation (APM AU), Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU), Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), Silver Lake.

Lowest spreads: Roland DG Corp (6789 JP), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Vinda International (3331 HK), Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (18 Mar) - Roland DG, JSR, YSK, CIMC Vehicles, Alumina, QV Equities, Qantm

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apm-human-services-internation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34808:1" rel="noopener">APM Human Services Internation (APM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/probiotec-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12047:1" rel="noopener">Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genetron-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28435:1" rel="noopener">Genetron Holdings Ltd (GTH US)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28012:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/payroll-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33434:1" rel="noopener">Payroll (4489 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welbe-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31118:1" rel="noopener">Welbe Inc (6556 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: APM Human Services Internation (APM AU), Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Genetron Holdings Ltd (GTH US). 
Lowest spreads: Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Payroll (4489 JP), Welbe Inc (6556 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (11 Mar) - Shinko, JSR, Azure, Genex, OreCorp, Hollysys, CPMC, Vinda

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apm-human-services-internation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34808:1" rel="noopener">APM Human Services Internation (APM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/probiotec-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12047:1" rel="noopener">Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>, China TCM.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaizu-suisankagaku-industry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20044:1" rel="noopener">Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP)</a>.       </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: APM Human Services Internation (APM AU), Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU), Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), JSR Corp (4185 JP), China TCM.
Lowest spreads: Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP).       


Merger Arb Mondays (04 Mar) - JSR, Shinko, Outsourcing, APM, Alumina, Adbri, Azure, CSR, Probiotec

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Apart from being mildly EPS accretive, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s buyback is a means to get crossholders out, therefore, it may not have much direct market impact. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cie-de-saint-gobain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21547:1" rel="noopener">Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)</a> firms a decade-high-plus Offer price for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a> - this is done.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Group (4755 JP)</a> announced it would propose an amendment to its Articles at the AGM (28 March) to issue "Bond-Type Class Shares." First reaction: You wot, mate?</li>
</ul>


Apart from being mildly EPS accretive, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s buyback is a means to get crossholders out, therefore, it may not have much direct market impact. 

Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) firms a decade-high-plus Offer price for CSR Ltd (CSR AU) - this is done.

Rakuten Group (4755 JP) announced it would propose an amendment to its Articles at the AGM (28 March) to issue "Bond-Type Class Shares." First reaction: You wot, mate?


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CSR, Rakuten, HK Property, Aeon/TSURUHA/Welcia

France

Compagnie de Saint-Gobain manufactures glass products, high-performance materials, and construction materials.  The Company produces flat glass, insulation, and glass containers, high-performance ceramics, plastics, and abrasives, and building materials such as roofing, wall facings, mortars, and ductile cast iron pipe.  Saint-Gobain also retails building materials.

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Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI; Downgrading India to Market; Market Dynamics Healthy; Treat Pullbacks as Buying Opportunities; Buys in global...

Vermilion Research

Merger Arb Mondays (18 Mar) - Roland DG, JSR, YSK, CIMC Vehicles, Alumina, QV Equities, Qantm

This week, the highest gross spreads are APM (29.0%), Qantm IP (19.1%), Genex Power (12.2%), Probiotec (9.4%), Alumina (8.5%), Silver Lake (7.1%),...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (11 Mar) - Shinko, JSR, Azure, Genex, OreCorp, Hollysys, CPMC, Vinda

This week, the highest gross spreads are APM (18.7%), Probiotec (10.9%), Genex Power (10.0%), China TCM (6.5%), Genetron (5.7%), Alumina (5.3%),...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (04 Mar) - JSR, Shinko, Outsourcing, APM, Alumina, Adbri, Azure, CSR, Probiotec

This week, the highest gross spreads are APM (19.8%), Probiotec (10.2%), Alumina (10.1%), Shinko Electric (7.9%), JSR (7.4%), China TCM (5.7%),...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CSR, Rakuten, HK Property, Aeon/TSURUHA/Welcia

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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