Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our post mortem of 2019 recommendations shows that we have had some successes; good bull calls were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gentera-sab-de-cv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27889:1" rel="noopener">Gentera SAB De CV (GENTERA* MM EQUITY)</a> in Mexico, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicredit-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21234:1" rel="noopener">UniCredit SpA (UCG IM)</a> in Italy, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credicorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25963:1" rel="noopener">Credicorp Ltd (BAP US)</a> in Peru, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xp-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28619:1" rel="noopener">XP Inc (XP US)</a> in Brazil and, to a lesser degree, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-do-brasil-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24564:1" rel="noopener">Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-inter-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28162:1" rel="noopener">Banco Inter SA (BIDI11 BZ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itausa-investimentos-itau-pr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24513:1" rel="noopener">Itausa-Investimentos Itau-Pr (ITSA4 BZ)</a>
</li>
<li>On the bearish side, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cielo-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24750:1" rel="noopener">Cielo SA (CIEL3 BZ)</a> worked well to October 2019 , also <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itau-corpbanca" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27602:1" rel="noopener">Itau CorpBanca (ITAUCORP CI)</a> and, in 4Q 2019, the bear call on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/b3-sa-brasil-bolsa-balcao" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24580:1" rel="noopener">B3 Sa - Brasil Bolsa Balcao (B3SA3 BZ) </a>is bearing fruit</li>
<li>Less successful calls include the bear stances on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grupo-financiero-banorte-o" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24780:1" rel="noopener">Grupo Financiero Banorte-O (GFNORTEO MM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercadolibre-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27954:1" rel="noopener">MercadoLibre Inc (MELI US)</a> and the bull positions on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ripley-corp-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28022:1" rel="noopener">Ripley Corp SA (RIPLEY CI), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/el-puerto-de-liverpool-sab-de" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27611:1" rel="noopener">El Puerto de Liverpool SAB de (LIVEPOLC MM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-santander-chile-a1d94c50-bd10-465a-a389-8383b9836732" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28621:1" rel="noopener">Banco Santander Chile (BSAC US)</a> </li>
<li>We believe that the rotation into value in 2H 2019 should continue into at least 1Q 2020, benefiting European and Emerging Market banks and financials amongst other sectors</li>
<li>In the value category, for 2020, we continue to like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-do-brasil-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24564:1" rel="noopener">Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicredit-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21234:1" rel="noopener">UniCredit SpA (UCG IM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cielo-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24750:1" rel="noopener">Cielo SA (CIEL3 BZ)</a> now a bull call since October</li>
<li>In the fintech growth space, we would also highlight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-inter-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28162:1" rel="noopener">Banco Inter SA (BIDI11 BZ)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credicorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25963:1" rel="noopener">Credicorp Ltd (BAP US)</a> has further to go, in our view, and so it remains a positive recommendation for 2020</li>
<li>Names to watch, for any potential catalysts for change, include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grupo-financiero-banorte-o" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24780:1" rel="noopener">Grupo Financiero Banorte-O (GFNORTEO MM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itau-corpbanca" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27602:1" rel="noopener">Itau CorpBanca (ITAUCORP CI)</a> </li>
<li>Risks include worsening sentiment towards equity markets, and a swing to a more "risk off" investment climate driven by global GDP growth concerns, increased US-China trade tensions and any increase in political tension in Latin America and Southern Europe</li>
</ul>


Our post mortem of 2019 recommendations shows that we have had some successes; good bull calls were Gentera SAB De CV (GENTERA* MM EQUITY) in Mexico, UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) in Italy, Credicorp Ltd (BAP US) in Peru, XP Inc (XP US) in Brazil and, to a lesser degree, Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ),Banco Inter SA (BIDI11 BZ) and Itausa-Investimentos Itau-Pr (ITSA4 BZ)

On the bearish side, Cielo SA (CIEL3 BZ) worked well to October 2019 , also Itau CorpBanca (ITAUCORP CI) and, in 4Q 2019, the bear call on B3 Sa - Brasil Bolsa Balcao (B3SA3 BZ) is bearing fruit
Less successful calls include the bear stances on Grupo Financiero Banorte-O (GFNORTEO MM) and MercadoLibre Inc (MELI US) and the bull positions on Ripley Corp SA (RIPLEY CI), El Puerto de Liverpool SAB de (LIVEPOLC MM) and Banco Santander Chile (BSAC US) 
We believe that the rotation into value in 2H 2019 should continue into at least 1Q 2020, benefiting European and Emerging Market banks and financials amongst other sectors
In the value category, for 2020, we continue to like Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ) , UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) and Cielo SA (CIEL3 BZ) now a bull call since October
In the fintech growth space, we would also highlight Banco Inter SA (BIDI11 BZ) 

Credicorp Ltd (BAP US) has further to go, in our view, and so it remains a positive recommendation for 2020
Names to watch, for any potential catalysts for change, include Grupo Financiero Banorte-O (GFNORTEO MM) and Itau CorpBanca (ITAUCORP CI) 
Risks include worsening sentiment towards equity markets, and a swing to a more "risk off" investment climate driven by global GDP growth concerns, increased US-China trade tensions and any increase in political tension in Latin America and Southern Europe


Galliano's Latin Notes 2019 Recommendations in Review, and Initial Thoughts for 2020

<ul>
<li>Our top picks in LatAm financials are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-do-brasil-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24564:1" rel="noopener">Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cielo-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24750:1" rel="noopener">Cielo SA (CIEL3 BZ)</a> in Brazil and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gentera-sab-de-cv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27889:1" rel="noopener">Gentera SAB De CV (GENTERA* MM EQUITY)</a> in Mexico</li>
<li>We also believe that the mid-cap Mexican financials <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-del-bajio-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28382:1" rel="noopener">Banco del Bajio SA (BBAJIOO MM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credito-real-s-a-b-de-c-v" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28383:1" rel="noopener">Credito Real, S.A.B. De C.V. (CREAL* MM EQUITY)</a> are attractive</li>
<li>Our top picks are based on a six month plus investment horizon and are largely value driven, focusing on PBV ratio versus ROE forecasts in the banks</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-inter-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28162:1" rel="noopener">Banco Inter SA (BIDI4 BZ)</a> falls outside the value category as a premium valued digital bank, but we believe that it continues to have scarcity value in Brazil and that management continue to execute well</li>
<li>Risks to our view include political and economic headwinds in Mexico and Brazil, greater than expected competitive pressures in LatAm banking and payments putting upward pressure on costs and thereby eroding returns</li>
</ul>


Our top picks in LatAm financials are Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ) , Cielo SA (CIEL3 BZ) in Brazil and Gentera SAB De CV (GENTERA* MM EQUITY) in Mexico
We also believe that the mid-cap Mexican financials Banco del Bajio SA (BBAJIOO MM) and Credito Real, S.A.B. De C.V. (CREAL* MM EQUITY) are attractive
Our top picks are based on a six month plus investment horizon and are largely value driven, focusing on PBV ratio versus ROE forecasts in the banks

Banco Inter SA (BIDI4 BZ) falls outside the value category as a premium valued digital bank, but we believe that it continues to have scarcity value in Brazil and that management continue to execute well
Risks to our view include political and economic headwinds in Mexico and Brazil, greater than expected competitive pressures in LatAm banking and payments putting upward pressure on costs and thereby eroding returns


<ul>
<li>We see further scope for consensus earnings and EBITDA disappointment at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercadolibre-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27954:1" rel="noopener">MercadoLibre Inc (MELI US)</a>
</li>
<li>In the FinTech operations, where MELI is growing and investing in payments, the competitive pressure is intense, especially but not exclusively in Brazil</li>
<li>We think this intensely competitive environment, reflected in the high sales and marketing costs, will continue to pressure returns and EBITDA margins in the coming quarters</li>
<li>Consequently, we expect further cuts to consensus EPS and EBITDA estimates in the near term, and a prospective share de-rating</li>
<li>Risks to our thesis include less than expected pressure on Merchant Discount Rates in Brazil, boosting revenue growth and a stricter control of opex</li>
</ul>


We see further scope for consensus earnings and EBITDA disappointment at MercadoLibre Inc (MELI US)

In the FinTech operations, where MELI is growing and investing in payments, the competitive pressure is intense, especially but not exclusively in Brazil
We think this intensely competitive environment, reflected in the high sales and marketing costs, will continue to pressure returns and EBITDA margins in the coming quarters
Consequently, we expect further cuts to consensus EPS and EBITDA estimates in the near term, and a prospective share de-rating
Risks to our thesis include less than expected pressure on Merchant Discount Rates in Brazil, boosting revenue growth and a stricter control of opex


MercadoLibre (MELI) - FinTech Operations Opex Pressures to Weigh on Consensus Estimates

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Brazil is progressing on its digital banking journey; it is ahead of most LatAm countries, bar Chile, but it lags other emerging markets like Singapore, China, Russia and Malaysia</li>
<li>The death of bricks-and-mortar Brazilian retail banking is far from imminent; nonetheless, the digital disrupters are pushing incumbents to up IT investment, as well as selectively lowering fees and interest rates charged; in the short run, this could erode returns due to the time lag in recouping cost savings</li>
<li>Although all big-cap banks are responding to the digital challenge, and they have the advantages of scale and credit assessment experience, we see credit cards, payroll, auto and mortgage credit as the product lines most exposed to digital disruption</li>
<li>We believe that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itau-unibanco-holding-sa-9d47d196-e503-471b-a84e-ca4401033062" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24550:1" rel="noopener">Itau Unibanco Holding Sa (ITUB4 BZ)</a> is the most exposed Brazilian big-cap in credit cards, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bradesco-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24569:1" rel="noopener">Banco Bradesco Sa (BBDC4 BZ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-santander-brasil-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27709:1" rel="noopener">Banco Santander Brasil SA (SANB11 BZ)</a> more exposed on SME, payroll and mortgage; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-do-brasil-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24564:1" rel="noopener">Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ)</a>’s portfolio seems more defensive but is still exposed as the biggest absolute player in payroll lending and SME for agribusiness</li>
<li>The main challengers in Brazil are private capital companies like Nubank, Neon, Banco Original, Agibank and Creditas, along with listed entities <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-inter-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28162:1" rel="noopener">Banco Inter SA (BIDI4 BZ)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-pan-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28163:1" rel="noopener">Banco Pan SA (BPAN4 BZ)</a> </li>
<li>Of the challengers, we like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-inter-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28162:1" rel="noopener">Banco Inter SA (BIDI4 BZ)</a> , on a long-term view, given the progress on its digital roll-out and potential for further growth, and despite Inter’s premium valuation; we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-pan-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28163:1" rel="noopener">Banco Pan SA (BPAN4 BZ)</a> as a “show me” story on its digital execution</li>
</ul>


Brazil is progressing on its digital banking journey; it is ahead of most LatAm countries, bar Chile, but it lags other emerging markets like Singapore, China, Russia and Malaysia
The death of bricks-and-mortar Brazilian retail banking is far from imminent; nonetheless, the digital disrupters are pushing incumbents to up IT investment, as well as selectively lowering fees and interest rates charged; in the short run, this could erode returns due to the time lag in recouping cost savings
Although all big-cap banks are responding to the digital challenge, and they have the advantages of scale and credit assessment experience, we see credit cards, payroll, auto and mortgage credit as the product lines most exposed to digital disruption
We believe that Itau Unibanco Holding Sa (ITUB4 BZ) is the most exposed Brazilian big-cap in credit cards, with Banco Bradesco Sa (BBDC4 BZ) and Banco Santander Brasil SA (SANB11 BZ) more exposed on SME, payroll and mortgage; Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ)’s portfolio seems more defensive but is still exposed as the biggest absolute player in payroll lending and SME for agribusiness
The main challengers in Brazil are private capital companies like Nubank, Neon, Banco Original, Agibank and Creditas, along with listed entities Banco Inter SA (BIDI4 BZ)  and Banco Pan SA (BPAN4 BZ) 
Of the challengers, we like Banco Inter SA (BIDI4 BZ) , on a long-term view, given the progress on its digital roll-out and potential for further growth, and despite Inter’s premium valuation; we see Banco Pan SA (BPAN4 BZ) as a “show me” story on its digital execution


Primer on Brazilian Digital Banking – Disrupters & Adapters

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<ul>
<li>A rising pro-market tide has lifted the big-cap banks, but now it is time to be more selective. We see further potential for stock re-rating among the Brazilian banks, as the new Bolosonaro administration executes its pro-market policies.</li>
<li>Our top pick is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24564" target="_blank">Banco Do Brasil Sa (BdoBAS3 BZ)</a> , with a target price of BRL57, which implies 19% re-rating potential. We believe that Banco do Brasil (BdoB) shareholders are set to benefit from less of a “social programme” agenda which in turn should help improve ROE going forward.</li>
<li>Yet the PBV discount between BdoB and its private sector peers - especially against Itaú Unibanco at 52% - has barely narrowed, and we believe that the discount has potential to narrow further as BdoB’s ROE expands and narrows the gap with its private sector peers.</li>
</ul>


A rising pro-market tide has lifted the big-cap banks, but now it is time to be more selective. We see further potential for stock re-rating among the Brazilian banks, as the new Bolosonaro administration executes its pro-market policies.
Our top pick is Banco Do Brasil Sa (BdoBAS3 BZ) , with a target price of BRL57, which implies 19% re-rating potential. We believe that Banco do Brasil (BdoB) shareholders are set to benefit from less of a “social programme” agenda which in turn should help improve ROE going forward.
Yet the PBV discount between BdoB and its private sector peers - especially against Itaú Unibanco at 52% - has barely narrowed, and we believe that the discount has potential to narrow further as BdoB’s ROE expands and narrows the gap with its private sector peers.


Brazil Banks: Banco Do Brasil Focus - Prospects for Improved Returns, Narrowing PBV Discount

Brazil

Cielo SA is an electronic payment solutions company based in Brazil and Latin America. The Company is responsible for accreditation of commercial establishments, capture, transmission, processing and settlement of transactions made with credit cards and debit cards as well as network management services.

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Cielo SA (CIEL3 BZ)

Galliano's Latin Notes 2019 Recommendations in Review, and Initial Thoughts for 2020

Our post mortem of 2019 recommendations shows that we have had some successes; good bull calls were Gentera SAB De CV (GENTERA* MM EQUITY) in...

Victor Galliano

LatAm Financials: Top Picks Summary

Our top picks in LatAm financials are Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ) , Cielo SA (CIEL3 BZ) in Brazil and Gentera SAB De CV (GENTERA* MM EQUITY) in...

Victor Galliano

MercadoLibre (MELI) - FinTech Operations Opex Pressures to Weigh on Consensus Estimates

We see further scope for consensus earnings and EBITDA disappointment at MercadoLibre Inc (MELI US) In the FinTech operations, where MELI is...

Victor Galliano

Primer on Brazilian Digital Banking – Disrupters & Adapters

Brazil is progressing on its digital banking journey; it is ahead of most LatAm countries, bar Chile, but it lags other emerging markets like...

Victor Galliano

Brazil Banks: Banco Do Brasil Focus - Prospects for Improved Returns, Narrowing PBV Discount

A rising pro-market tide has lifted the big-cap banks, but now it is time to be more selective. We see further potential for stock re-rating among...

Boost Research

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