Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The Baltic Dry Index - once a quaint indicator for shipping sector wonks to figure out expected marginal profitability of shippers who ran a greater or lesser portion of their fleet on spot rather than term charter or long-term lease - is now used by stock punters as "evidence" of dynamic demand for shipping services for commodities, and therefore underlying economic pull demand from the secondary sector (heavy and light industry), particularly in China. The big news is that it has bounced 105%…

The Baltic Dry Index - once a quaint indicator for shipping sector wonks to figure out expected marginal profitability of shippers who ran a greater or lesser portion of their fleet on spot rather than term charter or long-term lease - is now used by stock punters as "evidence" of dynamic demand for shipping services for commodities, and therefore underlying economic pull demand from the secondary sector (heavy and light industry), particularly in China. The big news is that it has bounced 105%…

Baltic Dry: 30yrs of Stats Tells You The Bounce You Now See Is Seasonal. Again.

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight">The failure to use or the aggressive implementation of asset write downs in emerging markets and Asia will have far reaching implications for investors.</div> We live in a world where investors are uncertain about asset values both in financial and non-financial companies.  Whilst a lot is written about the nature of bad debts at banks, little has been comprehensively written about the balance sheets of non-financial companies.We see the following evidence in our analysis: <ul><li><div class="content-highlight">The failure of some…</div></li></ul>

The failure to use or the aggressive implementation of asset write downs in emerging markets and Asia will have far reaching implications for investors. We live in a world where investors are uncertain about asset values both in financial and non-financial companies.  Whilst a lot is written about the nature of bad debts at banks, little has been comprehensively written about the balance sheets of non-financial companies.We see the following evidence in our analysis: The failure of some…

Event-Driven

It has been a long and tiring battle behind the mattresses for both sides. Ferrovial initially bid $A$1.35/share in a hostile approach last December when Broadspectrum was on its knees at A$0.85/share and Broadspectrum was in danger of not winning a big contract with the Australian Department of Immigration and Border Protection. In fact, the renewal of the contract for Nauru &amp; Manus Island Detention Centre got delayed, and put into competition, Broadspectrum got more contracts, the numbers…

It has been a long and tiring battle behind the mattresses for both sides. Ferrovial initially bid $A$1.35/share in a hostile approach last December when Broadspectrum was on its knees at A$0.85/share and Broadspectrum was in danger of not winning a big contract with the Australian Department of Immigration and Border Protection. In fact, the renewal of the contract for Nauru &amp; Manus Island Detention Centre got delayed, and put into competition, Broadspectrum got more contracts, the numbers…

Last night, the Sydney Morning Herald carried an article titled <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/ferrovial-digs-in-for-long-haul-after-broadspectrum-rejection-of-715m-takeover-20160129-gmgr7b.html" target="_blank">Ferrovial Digs In For the Long Haul After Broadspectrum Rejection of [A]$715mm Takeover.</a> <blockquote>
Broadspectrum suitor Ferrovial is settling in for a long takeover battle, with the Spanish company waiting for regulatory approvals before issuing a formal response to the contractor's rejection of its $715 million hostile bid.
Ferrovial is preparing a response to Broadspectrum, which was previously known as Transfield Services, but is in no…
</blockquote>

Last night, the Sydney Morning Herald carried an article titled Ferrovial Digs In For the Long Haul After Broadspectrum Rejection of [A]$715mm Takeover. 
Broadspectrum suitor Ferrovial is settling in for a long takeover battle, with the Spanish company waiting for regulatory approvals before issuing a formal response to the contractor's rejection of its $715 million hostile bid.
Ferrovial is preparing a response to Broadspectrum, which was previously known as Transfield Services, but is in no…


Ferrovial Peeks Head Out From Behind Mattress Yet Again

They <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ferrovial-broadspectrum-going-to-the-mattresses" target="_blank">went to the mattresses</a> in early December. They're still at it. Ferrovial has just <a href="http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160127/pdf/434lsgvs0ffxht.pdf" target="_blank">extended</a> its offer close by two weeks (from Feb 8 to Feb 22).This is, however, likely just an interim step, setting up the next.<h2>Last Week</h2>Last week on January 21st, Broadspectrum released its <a href="http://tse.live.irmau.com/irm/showdownloaddoc.aspx?SiteId=254&amp;AnnounceGuid=60ccaa34-68fe-4c0c-89dc-d6a9333e17be" target="_blank">Target's Statement</a> which stated the Ferrovial bid of A$1.35 which was at a 59% premium to previous trade, was actually opportunistic, and Broadspectrum was worth more now than the year before when Ferrovial had made a…

They went to the mattresses in early December. They're still at it. Ferrovial has just extended its offer close by two weeks (from Feb 8 to Feb 22).This is, however, likely just an interim step, setting up the next.Last WeekLast week on January 21st, Broadspectrum released its Target's Statement which stated the Ferrovial bid of A$1.35 which was at a 59% premium to previous trade, was actually opportunistic, and Broadspectrum was worth more now than the year before when Ferrovial had made a…

Ferrovial Peaks Head Out from Behind Mattress. Shoots. Ducks Again.

Australia

CIMIC Group Ltd. operates in the infrastructure, resources, and property markets. The Company constructs roads, tunnels and bridges, water pipelines and desalination plants, commercial and industrial buildings, resorts and residential precincts, as well as land reclamation, and offshore oil and gas structures, and provides contract mining services.

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CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU)

Baltic Dry: 30yrs of Stats Tells You The Bounce You Now See Is Seasonal. Again.

The Baltic Dry Index - once a quaint indicator for shipping sector wonks to figure out expected marginal profitability of shippers who ran a...

Travis Lundy

Beware Impairments in EM and Asia

The failure to use or the aggressive implementation of asset write downs in emerging markets and Asia will have far reaching implications for...

Mark Artherton

Broadspectrum: One Bump & It's Final

It has been a long and tiring battle behind the mattresses for both sides. Ferrovial initially bid $A$1.35/share in a hostile approach last...

Travis Lundy

Ferrovial Peeks Head Out From Behind Mattress Yet Again

Last night, the Sydney Morning Herald carried an article titled Ferrovial Digs In For the Long Haul After Broadspectrum Rejection of [A]$715mm...

Travis Lundy

Ferrovial Peaks Head Out from Behind Mattress. Shoots. Ducks Again.

They went to the mattresses in early December. They're still at it. Ferrovial has just extended its offer close by two weeks (from Feb 8 to Feb...

Travis Lundy

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