Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-March in April. There are companies with significant float changes from end-December and/or end-September.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 6 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 4 could see passive outflows in May.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-March in April. There are companies with significant float changes from end-December and/or end-September.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 6 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 4 could see passive outflows in May.


India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in 3 Weeks

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We have screened for APAC (ex-China) healthcare companies using their respective Smart Score, a compound score for a company indicating its overall outlook based on key factors.</li>
<li>Smart Score screens the stock based on five major components including value, dividends, growth, resilience, and momentum. It also provides a cumulative score, which puts equal weightage on each parameter.  </li>
<li>Parameters used to screen the stocks: market cap≥ $800M and smart score≥ 3.5. We have seen stocks having high smart score has strong growth prospects and qualify for investment proposition.</li>
</ul>


We have screened for APAC (ex-China) healthcare companies using their respective Smart Score, a compound score for a company indicating its overall outlook based on key factors.
Smart Score screens the stock based on five major components including value, dividends, growth, resilience, and momentum. It also provides a cumulative score, which puts equal weightage on each parameter.  
Parameters used to screen the stocks: market cap≥ $800M and smart score≥ 3.5. We have seen stocks having high smart score has strong growth prospects and qualify for investment proposition.


Top APAC (Ex-China) Investment Worthy Healthcare Companies Using Smartkarma’s Smart Score Screener

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cipla-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3918:1" rel="noopener">Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN)</a> reported better-than-expected Q1FY24 result, with revenue growing 18% YoY, driven by India and the U.S., both of which reported record high revenue.  </li>
<li>Stellar performance across all markets drove EBITDA to multi-quarter highs. EBITDA margin expanded 230 bps YoY and 310 bps QoQ to 23.6%. Net profit increased 45% YoY to INR10 billion.</li>
<li>Cipla expects the average revenue run rate of $210–215M from its U.S. business in the coming quarters. For FY24, management has raised EBITDA margin guidance to 23% from 22%.</li>
</ul>



Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN) reported better-than-expected Q1FY24 result, with revenue growing 18% YoY, driven by India and the U.S., both of which reported record high revenue.  
Stellar performance across all markets drove EBITDA to multi-quarter highs. EBITDA margin expanded 230 bps YoY and 310 bps QoQ to 23.6%. Net profit increased 45% YoY to INR10 billion.
Cipla expects the average revenue run rate of $210–215M from its U.S. business in the coming quarters. For FY24, management has raised EBITDA margin guidance to 23% from 22%.


2023 High Conviction Update: Cipla (CIPLA IN)- Stellar Q1FY24 Performance; Margin Guidance Raised

<ul>
<li>In Q1FY25, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cipla-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3918:1" rel="noopener">Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN)</a> posted 7% YoY revenue growth to INR66.9B. Despite surging R&amp;D expenditure, EBITDA increased 26% YoY to INR17.2B, leading to 154bps margin expansion to 25.6%.</li>
<li>Record high quarterly revenue in the U.S. market, double-digit revenue growth in India branded prescription business, and continued strong momentum in South Africa drove overall performance.</li>
<li>Cipla is well-positioned for mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth through FY27. Sitting on a robust cash balance of INR90B, Cipla is eyeing on M&amp;A. Valuation still looks reasonable.</li>
</ul>


In Q1FY25, Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN) posted 7% YoY revenue growth to INR66.9B. Despite surging R&amp;D expenditure, EBITDA increased 26% YoY to INR17.2B, leading to 154bps margin expansion to 25.6%.
Record high quarterly revenue in the U.S. market, double-digit revenue growth in India branded prescription business, and continued strong momentum in South Africa drove overall performance.
Cipla is well-positioned for mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth through FY27. Sitting on a robust cash balance of INR90B, Cipla is eyeing on M&amp;A. Valuation still looks reasonable.


Cipla (CIPLA IN): Starts FY25 On Firm Note; EBITDA Margin Ahead of Guidance Range

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders raised around US$530m in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mankind-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36389:1" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma</a>(MP) IPO in May 2023. The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from their lockup soon.</li>
<li>MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and recent updates.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders raised around US$530m in Mankind Pharma(MP) IPO in May 2023. The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from their lockup soon.
MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and recent updates.


Mankind Pharma Lock-Up - A US$1.1bn+ Lockup Release

India

Cipla Limited manufactures and sells pharmaceutical and personal care products. The Company offers active pharmaceutical ingredients, and formulations in therapeutic areas, such as allergy, analgesic, anti malarial, anti-infectives, cardiology, dermatology and cosmeceuticals, diabetology, gastroenterology, steroids, iron chelators, nutritional products.

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Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN)

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in 3 Weeks

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 3...

Brian Freitas

Top APAC (Ex-China) Investment Worthy Healthcare Companies Using Smartkarma’s Smart Score Screener

We have screened APAC (ex-China) healthcare companies with market cap≥$800M using Smartkarma’s Smart Score and picked up 2 investable ideas by...

Tina Banerjee

2023 High Conviction Update: Cipla (CIPLA IN)- Stellar Q1FY24 Performance; Margin Guidance Raised

Q1FY24 result beat expectations. Both India and the U.S. businesses reported record high revenue. EBITDA rose to multi-quarter high. For FY24,...

Tina Banerjee

Cipla (CIPLA IN): Starts FY25 On Firm Note; EBITDA Margin Ahead of Guidance Range

In Q1FY25, Cipla posted 7% YoY revenue growth to INR66.9B. EBITDA increased 26% YoY to INR17.2B, leading to 154bps margin expansion to 25.6%, ahead...

Tina Banerjee

Mankind Pharma Lock-Up - A US$1.1bn+ Lockup Release

The two pre-IPO investors have launched a block to sell around US$591m worth of Mankind Pharma shares. Since the lockup on the shares expired not...

Sumeet Singh

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