HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Many have missed out on the 14%, or 2,300 points, rally of the HSI in the last 9 trading days. There are still several stocks that look interesting now.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:872:1" rel="noopener">Link REIT (823 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> are massive laggards YTD.</li>
<li>As they have only experienced limited rebounds from the 19-Apr trough, they are set to catch up. Also, their earnings prospects look positive this year. </li>
</ul>


Many have missed out on the 14%, or 2,300 points, rally of the HSI in the last 9 trading days. There are still several stocks that look interesting now.

Li Auto (2015 HK), Link REIT (823 HK), China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) and Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) are massive laggards YTD.
As they have only experienced limited rebounds from the 19-Apr trough, they are set to catch up. Also, their earnings prospects look positive this year. 


HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

AngloGold Ashanti Spon Adr / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.</li>
<li>In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.
In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.


MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A monthly review at how the markets and our themes are currently performing</li>
<li>Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors</li>
<li>Highlighting positions  added or removed  from the thematic investment portfolio</li>
</ul>


A monthly review at how the markets and our themes are currently performing
Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
Highlighting positions  added or removed  from the thematic investment portfolio


February Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nws-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3350:1" rel="noopener">Nws Holdings (659 HK)</a>’s IFA opines that the conditional voluntary general offer from the Cheng family is fair and reasonable. The offer + 2H dividend is HK$9.46 per share.</li>
<li>The key condition is (majority vote) approval by independent NWD shareholders (EGM on 2 November). The timetable is designed such that the shareholders will also receive the NWS final dividend.</li>
<li>NWD has a high but declining AGM minority participation rate. Retail forums suggest support for the transaction. On balance, we believe that this deal gets up. </li>
</ul>



Nws Holdings (659 HK)’s IFA opines that the conditional voluntary general offer from the Cheng family is fair and reasonable. The offer + 2H dividend is HK$9.46 per share.
The key condition is (majority vote) approval by independent NWD shareholders (EGM on 2 November). The timetable is designed such that the shareholders will also receive the NWS final dividend.
NWD has a high but declining AGM minority participation rate. Retail forums suggest support for the transaction. On balance, we believe that this deal gets up. 


NWS Holding (659 HK): Offer Opens with NWD Vote on 2 November

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a> reversal was overdue, but the bounce looks weak: so far it did not even reach Q1 resistance on week 1 and on week 2 (current).</li>
<li>Resistance level to watch where the current bounce could end is 18874, or any price around that area at Close, at the end of this week. High probability SHORT.</li>
<li>If some unexpected catalyst pushes the index to rally, look for resistance at 19459 on week 3, we think this won't happen but a tail is always possible.</li>
</ul>



HSI reversal was overdue, but the bounce looks weak: so far it did not even reach Q1 resistance on week 1 and on week 2 (current).
Resistance level to watch where the current bounce could end is 18874, or any price around that area at Close, at the end of this week. High probability SHORT.
If some unexpected catalyst pushes the index to rally, look for resistance at 19459 on week 3, we think this won't happen but a tail is always possible.


EQD | Hang Seng Index (HSI) WEEKLY Weak Bounce: Resistance Analysis

Hong Kong

CITIC Limited operates in a range of business activities including financial services, resources and energy, manufacturing, real estate and infrastructure, engineering contracting and other businesses in China and overseas.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Citic Ltd (267 HK)

HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

Li Auto, Link REIT, China Mengniu, Hang Lung Properties, and Galaxy Entertainment are massive laggards YTD but the recent rebound from the trough...

Osbert Tang, CFA

MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

MSCI EM Finally Joins the Rally; China/Hong Kong Continue to Improve; Downgrading Brazil to Market Weight; Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight;...

Vermilion Research

February Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and subtractions in the thematic investment portfolio.

Rikki Malik

NWS Holding (659 HK): Offer Opens with NWD Vote on 2 November

NWD shareholders overwhelmingly approved the two ordinary resolutions at the EGM. Therefore, the offer will be declared unconditional on 9 Nov, and...

Arun George

EQD | Hang Seng Index (HSI) WEEKLY Weak Bounce: Resistance Analysis

The Hang Seng Index reversal was overdue, but the bounce looks weak so far (has not even reached Q1 resistance). MRM SHORT Level at 18874, high...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

Li Auto, Link REIT, China Mengniu, Hang Lung Properties, and Galaxy Entertainment are massive laggards YTD but the recent rebound from the trough...

Osbert Tang, CFA

MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

MSCI EM Finally Joins the Rally; China/Hong Kong Continue to Improve; Downgrading Brazil to Market Weight; Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight;...

Vermilion Research

February Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and subtractions in the thematic investment portfolio.

Rikki Malik

NWS Holding (659 HK): Offer Opens with NWD Vote on 2 November

NWD shareholders overwhelmingly approved the two ordinary resolutions at the EGM. Therefore, the offer will be declared unconditional on 9 Nov, and...

Arun George

EQD | Hang Seng Index (HSI) WEEKLY Weak Bounce: Resistance Analysis

​The Hang Seng Index reversal was overdue, but the bounce looks weak so far (has not even reached Q1 resistance). MRM SHORT Level at 18874, high...

Nico Rosti

The Hang Seng Index reversal was overdue, but the bounce looks weak so far (has not even reached Q1 resistance). MRM SHORT Level at 18874, high...