Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay, Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay

Quantitative fund & research firm with a qualitative overlay. 

Our coverage: General U.S. with a skew towards the primary sector. 

Methods: Smart Beta/Factor Pricing, Neural Networks, Street Gossip, and Common Sense.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite fears of a banking crisis, Citibank's held-for-sale and trading securities are likely to be marked higher amid a favorable 3-month liquid bond and equity market environment.</li>
<li>Citi's ex-market debt portfolio is at risk of lower recoveries and heightened cyclical exposure.</li>
<li>Citigroup Inc. (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper">NYSE:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/search?q=C" target="_blank" rel="noopener">C</a></span>) is due to release its first-quarter earnings report before the market opens on Friday, April 14th.</li>
</ul>


Despite fears of a banking crisis, Citibank's held-for-sale and trading securities are likely to be marked higher amid a favorable 3-month liquid bond and equity market environment.
Citi's ex-market debt portfolio is at risk of lower recoveries and heightened cyclical exposure.
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) is due to release its first-quarter earnings report before the market opens on Friday, April 14th.


Citigroup Stock Q1 Earnings Preview: What To Watch For

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Confidence in the US banking system has been under immense stress, and some contagion crossed the Atlantic and struck Europe as well.</li>
<li>At the moment, all banks are trading below their 52w highs – some more notably than others (median -25.82%).</li>
<li>Deposit flights are driven by the inverted yield curve and particularly regional banks are vulnerable to it.</li>
</ul>


Confidence in the US banking system has been under immense stress, and some contagion crossed the Atlantic and struck Europe as well.
At the moment, all banks are trading below their 52w highs – some more notably than others (median -25.82%).
Deposit flights are driven by the inverted yield curve and particularly regional banks are vulnerable to it.


Equity Watch: Fire-Sale or Outright Fire in US Bank Stocks

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Interest rate risk in the system increased with the Fed’s steep interest rate hikes and due to the opt-out for many US banks on the AFS securities market-to-market capital hit</li>
<li>Uninsured and concentrated deposits, at the first hint of bank trouble, can take flight very quickly especially in the case of concentrated, key elements of the Silicon Vally Bank collapse</li>
<li>We believe that it is premature to look for buy opportunities in US banks, although we believe that the largest US banks are sound in terms of their balance sheets</li>
</ul>


Interest rate risk in the system increased with the Fed’s steep interest rate hikes and due to the opt-out for many US banks on the AFS securities market-to-market capital hit
Uninsured and concentrated deposits, at the first hint of bank trouble, can take flight very quickly especially in the case of concentrated, key elements of the Silicon Vally Bank collapse
We believe that it is premature to look for buy opportunities in US banks, although we believe that the largest US banks are sound in terms of their balance sheets


US Bank Sector Stress – Old Fashioned Risks and a Regulatory Loophole Meet the Digital Age

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>Svb Financial has collapsed and Credit Suisse is on the verge of collapse. We discuss a trading strategy on Korean banks amid the ongoing turbulence on the global banking system.</li>
<li>Our trading strategy is to go long on a basket of three largest banks in Korea (KB, Shinhan, Hana) and go short on a basket of five smaller banks. </li>
<li>Post collapse of SVB Financial, one clear signal appears to be increasing global capital allocation to the "too big to fail banks" and reduced capital allocation to regional banks.</li>
</ul>


Svb Financial has collapsed and Credit Suisse is on the verge of collapse. We discuss a trading strategy on Korean banks amid the ongoing turbulence on the global banking system.
Our trading strategy is to go long on a basket of three largest banks in Korea (KB, Shinhan, Hana) and go short on a basket of five smaller banks. 
Post collapse of SVB Financial, one clear signal appears to be increasing global capital allocation to the "too big to fail banks" and reduced capital allocation to regional banks.


Investors' Capital Allocation Shift Among Korean Banks Post Collapse of SVB Financial

Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB d / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We explore Citibank’s upcoming Banamex disposal, which appears to have become a one horse race and question whether an IPO is completely off the cards</li>
<li>Bank sector data trends to December remain robust, but headwinds are building; rising funding costs threaten credit spreads and worsening cost of credit trends, both set to erode 2023 returns</li>
<li>BBVA Mexico generates consistent premium ROE of 25%+, investors can gain exposure through parent BBVA shares; we remain cautious on Banorte, due to the growing risks to returns and valuation</li>
</ul>


We explore Citibank’s upcoming Banamex disposal, which appears to have become a one horse race and question whether an IPO is completely off the cards
Bank sector data trends to December remain robust, but headwinds are building; rising funding costs threaten credit spreads and worsening cost of credit trends, both set to erode 2023 returns
BBVA Mexico generates consistent premium ROE of 25%+, investors can gain exposure through parent BBVA shares; we remain cautious on Banorte, due to the growing risks to returns and valuation


Banamex Update & Mexican Banks’ December Data; Risks of Credit Spread Erosion & Rising Credit Costs

United States

Citigroup Inc. is a diversified financial services holding company that provides a broad range of financial services to consumer and corporate customers. The Company services include investment banking, retail brokerage, corporate banking, and cash management products and services. Citigroup serves customers globally.

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Citigroup Inc (C US)

Citigroup Stock Q1 Earnings Preview: What To Watch For

Despite fears of a banking crisis, Citibank's held-for-sale and trading securities are likely to be marked higher amid a favorable 3-month liquid...

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Equity Watch: Fire-Sale or Outright Fire in US Bank Stocks

Confidence in the US banking system has been under stress, and contagion struck Europe as well. The troubles have for now been backstopped, but is...

Steno Research

US Bank Sector Stress – Old Fashioned Risks and a Regulatory Loophole Meet the Digital Age

US bank system strains reflects heightened interest rate risk, exacerbated by uninsured and concentrated deposits at a time of sharply rising...

Victor Galliano

Investors' Capital Allocation Shift Among Korean Banks Post Collapse of SVB Financial

Svb Financial has collapsed and Credit Suisse is on the verge of collapse. We discuss a trading strategy on Korean banks amid the ongoing...

Douglas Kim

Banamex Update & Mexican Banks’ December Data; Risks of Credit Spread Erosion & Rising Credit Costs

The Banamex sale is a one horse race, Mexican bank PBVs are high; is an IPO totally off the cards? December data was solid, but higher funding...

Victor Galliano

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