Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US banks' high-frequency data (HFD) released from the Fed shows the 6th week in a row of higher than 4% YoY loan growth (and highest yet at 4.43%)</li>
<li>The change in loans during the first 6 weeks of 3Q25 is +USD85bn compared with +USD1bn in the same period last year</li>
<li>C&amp;I loan growth has seen strong delta over past 52 weeks and LLR growth remains subdued, suggesting good credit metrics</li>
</ul>


US banks' high-frequency data (HFD) released from the Fed shows the 6th week in a row of higher than 4% YoY loan growth (and highest yet at 4.43%)
The change in loans during the first 6 weeks of 3Q25 is +USD85bn compared with +USD1bn in the same period last year
C&amp;I loan growth has seen strong delta over past 52 weeks and LLR growth remains subdued, suggesting good credit metrics


US Banks - At 6 Weeks into 3Q25, +USD85bn Loans, Vs +USD1bn at 6 Weeks into 2Q24

<ul>
<li>US banks have saw loans rise from USD2 tr to USD13 tr from 1990 to newest release; it is 1st time we have seen USD13,005bn in loans</li>
<li>US banks are still seeing growth rates YoY at over 4%, with this pace of growth now seen for the past 5 weeks of data</li>
<li>Even where the Senior Loan Officer Survey is mixed (not in this report), US banks are seeing good lending growth, and benign provisions</li>
</ul>


US banks have saw loans rise from USD2 tr to USD13 tr from 1990 to newest release; it is 1st time we have seen USD13,005bn in loans
US banks are still seeing growth rates YoY at over 4%, with this pace of growth now seen for the past 5 weeks of data
Even where the Senior Loan Officer Survey is mixed (not in this report), US banks are seeing good lending growth, and benign provisions


US Banks - USD13 Trillion in Loans, First Time Ever, as at Week 30 July

<ul>
<li>Momentum in weekly HFD for loan growth at US banks is improving, now reaching 3.0% YoY for week 5 March data, a figure not reached since at least early 2024</li>
<li>The growth rate in large time deposits continues to remain incredibly low now at 1.2% YoY in the most recent week - these funds are more expensive than other deposits. </li>
<li>Loan loss reserves are still much higher than YE19 at 1.59% of loans there is a distinct bottoming and turning over of this ratio - suggesting better credit metrics.</li>
</ul>


Momentum in weekly HFD for loan growth at US banks is improving, now reaching 3.0% YoY for week 5 March data, a figure not reached since at least early 2024
The growth rate in large time deposits continues to remain incredibly low now at 1.2% YoY in the most recent week - these funds are more expensive than other deposits. 
Loan loss reserves are still much higher than YE19 at 1.59% of loans there is a distinct bottoming and turning over of this ratio - suggesting better credit metrics.


US Banks - Weekly YoY Loan Growth Hits 3.0% Peak Since Early 2024

<ul>
<li>The most recent loan officer survey release from the Fed shows a very strong outlook for US banks during 1Q25 and likely during FY25 as a whole</li>
<li>Core C&amp;I loan demand is rising sharply in the survey and tightening standards on CRE loans are loosening dramatically</li>
<li>Weekly balance sheet data for US banks shows better delta in loans through 19 Feb week, stagnating LLR, and rising LDR</li>
</ul>


The most recent loan officer survey release from the Fed shows a very strong outlook for US banks during 1Q25 and likely during FY25 as a whole
Core C&amp;I loan demand is rising sharply in the survey and tightening standards on CRE loans are loosening dramatically
Weekly balance sheet data for US banks shows better delta in loans through 19 Feb week, stagnating LLR, and rising LDR


US Banks - Senior Loan Officer Survey, Weekly B/S Data, Suggest Strong US Bank Profits

<ul>
<li>Weekly data for US banks shows good loan acceleration continuing in February, with less LLR, less large time deposits</li>
<li>The profit outlook for US banks is positive during 1Q25 given trends in high frequency data on loans, loan loss reserves, jumbo time deposits</li>
<li>Banks are seeing sharply higher growth rates in residential mortgage loans, where flow-through to economy is typically +ve</li>
</ul>


Weekly data for US banks shows good loan acceleration continuing in February, with less LLR, less large time deposits
The profit outlook for US banks is positive during 1Q25 given trends in high frequency data on loans, loan loss reserves, jumbo time deposits
Banks are seeing sharply higher growth rates in residential mortgage loans, where flow-through to economy is typically +ve


US Banks - Loan Acceleration Into February, Less LLR, Large Time Deposits: +ve Profit Outlook

United States

Citizens Financial Group Inc. provides a full range of commercial banking services for retail and Institutional customers. The Bank offers consumer loans, commercial loans, mortgage loans, deposit products, internet banking, and trust services.

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Citizens Financial (CFG US)

US Banks - At 6 Weeks into 3Q25, +USD85bn Loans, Vs +USD1bn at 6 Weeks into 2Q24

US banks' HFD shows strong and accelerating loan growth. The change in loans during the 6 weeks into 3Q25 is $85bn vs $1bn in 3Q24. C&I is strong,...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - USD13 Trillion in Loans, First Time Ever, as at Week 30 July

US banks have seen loans outstanding rise above USD13 trillion for the first time ever. The growth rate remains above 4% YoY for five weeks...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly YoY Loan Growth Hits 3.0% Peak Since Early 2024

US banks weekly HFD on loans is positive, with acceleration to highest rates of growth since at least early FY24. Large time deposits and loan loss...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Senior Loan Officer Survey, Weekly B/S Data, Suggest Strong US Bank Profits

Data from the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey suggest a strong back drop to US bank earnings, as does granular HFD from weekly balance sheets,...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Loan Acceleration Into February, Less LLR, Large Time Deposits: +ve Profit Outlook

US banks are seeing accelerating loan growth with lower loan loss reserves and less large time deposits, in HFD during Jan and Feb. The...

Daniel Tabbush

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