Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside.Fiscal and Monetary Policy have become confusing amidst a lack of meaningful structural reforms.Policy rates are likely to remain at current levels; downside risks to overvalued rupee.

Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside.Fiscal and Monetary Policy have become confusing amidst a lack of meaningful structural reforms.Policy rates are likely to remain at current levels; downside risks to overvalued rupee.

India: Growth Outlook Remains Tilted to the Downside

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

RBL Bank plans to raise between US$150-200m later this year by selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. In this insight, we have looked at the company's past financial performance, along with its return profile in order to benchmark it versus other listed players. RBL is similar to other listed old age private sector banks in terms of asset size and returns and the deal will probably need to come in at a discount to this group for it to do well.

RBL Bank plans to raise between US$150-200m later this year by selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. In this insight, we have looked at the company's past financial performance, along with its return profile in order to benchmark it versus other listed players. RBL is similar to other listed old age private sector banks in terms of asset size and returns and the deal will probably need to come in at a discount to this group for it to do well.

RBL Bank Pre-IPO Review - Impressive Asset Growth but Return Ratios Lagging

Recent monetary policy and fiscal policy announcements have not been encouraging, but in fact confusing. RBI, as we shall see below, now has two monetary policy frameworks – inflation targeting and “monetary targeting’’ – that it wants to follow – and these could be contradictory creating confusion about monetary policy intent. The RBI’s policy quandary has to an extent been driven by the poor quality of the fiscal adjustment that the government has undertaken. The Indian government’s fiscal consolidation efforts thus far have been an accounting mirage. The political and the monetary authorities will need to work together to frame appropriate and coordinated policies to ward off the emerging risks to the economy.

Recent monetary policy and fiscal policy announcements have not been encouraging, but in fact confusing. RBI, as we shall see below, now has two monetary policy frameworks – inflation targeting and “monetary targeting’’ – that it wants to follow – and these could be contradictory creating confusion about monetary policy intent. The RBI’s policy quandary has to an extent been driven by the poor quality of the fiscal adjustment that the government has undertaken. The Indian government’s fiscal consolidation efforts thus far have been an accounting mirage. The political and the monetary authorities will need to work together to frame appropriate and coordinated policies to ward off the emerging risks to the economy.

Global Economic Woes Mask India's Policy Confusion

After 18 months of consistent decline, exports recorded a marginal uptrend in June 2016 while the rate of decline in imports slowed. Exports grew 1.3% y-o-y in June 2016 but the trend remains weak having declined 2% y-o-y on a 3-month moving average (3mma) basis in May 2016 compared to a fall of 4.2% y-o-y in May 2016. Imports fell by 7.3% y-o-y in June 2016 compared to a decline of 13.2% y-o-y in May 2016. On a 3mma basis, imports fell 14.9% y-o-y in June 2016 compared to a 20.5 % decline in…

After 18 months of consistent decline, exports recorded a marginal uptrend in June 2016 while the rate of decline in imports slowed. Exports grew 1.3% y-o-y in June 2016 but the trend remains weak having declined 2% y-o-y on a 3-month moving average (3mma) basis in May 2016 compared to a fall of 4.2% y-o-y in May 2016. Imports fell by 7.3% y-o-y in June 2016 compared to a decline of 13.2% y-o-y in May 2016. On a 3mma basis, imports fell 14.9% y-o-y in June 2016 compared to a 20.5 % decline in…

INDIA: Downside Risk to Rupee as Trade Data Remain Weak

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The government’s capital injection for India’s state banks is miniscule compared with what they may need. The data is not hidden, so it is unclear to us, how the government can miscalculate by such a magnitude. For four state banks, the proposed capital injection is only 0.3% of assets! Our analysis below focuses on the four state banks where we have complete details, while the overall government capital injection package is for INR229 billion for 13 PSU banks.New proposed government capital as…

The government’s capital injection for India’s state banks is miniscule compared with what they may need. The data is not hidden, so it is unclear to us, how the government can miscalculate by such a magnitude. For four state banks, the proposed capital injection is only 0.3% of assets! Our analysis below focuses on the four state banks where we have complete details, while the overall government capital injection package is for INR229 billion for 13 PSU banks.New proposed government capital as…

New Capital for India's Banks: Microscopic

India

City Union Bank Ltd. is a full service bank. The Bank offers a wide range of banking and financial services across India, including both domestic and International banking services.

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City Union Bank (CUBK IN)

India: Growth Outlook Remains Tilted to the Downside

Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside.Fiscal and Monetary Policy have become confusing amidst a lack of meaningful structural...

Rajan Govil

RBL Bank Pre-IPO Review - Impressive Asset Growth but Return Ratios Lagging

RBL Bank plans to raise between US$150-200m later this year by selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. In this insight, we have looked at...

Sumeet Singh

Global Economic Woes Mask India's Policy Confusion

Recent monetary policy and fiscal policy announcements have not been encouraging, but in fact confusing. RBI, as we shall see below, now has two...

Rajan Govil

INDIA: Downside Risk to Rupee as Trade Data Remain Weak

After 18 months of consistent decline, exports recorded a marginal uptrend in June 2016 while the rate of decline in imports slowed. Exports grew...

Rajan Govil

New Capital for India's Banks: Microscopic

The government’s capital injection for India’s state banks is miniscule compared with what they may need. The data is not hidden, so it is unclear...

Daniel Tabbush

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