European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Civitas Social Housing PLC / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Property developer/investor CK Asset Holdings made a 80p/share (+1.425p dividend) cash takeover offer for value-destroyer Civitas Social Housing REIT, implied equity value £485million, 44% premium and 26.7% discount to NAV.</li>
<li>Before offer announcement, Civitas traded at 50% discount to NAV, 8.1% dividend yield (covered &lt;1x). Although my fair value estimate (dividend discount model) is 83p, shareholders will likely cash in.</li>
<li>Spread is 1.26%/3.91% (gross/annualised, assuming all payments by 11 September for simplicity). Readacross: Triple Point (SOHO LN), at 49% discount/NAV, 10.1% dividend yield (covered 0.92x), could also be a target.</li>
</ul>


Property developer/investor CK Asset Holdings made a 80p/share (+1.425p dividend) cash takeover offer for value-destroyer Civitas Social Housing REIT, implied equity value £485million, 44% premium and 26.7% discount to NAV.
Before offer announcement, Civitas traded at 50% discount to NAV, 8.1% dividend yield (covered &lt;1x). Although my fair value estimate (dividend discount model) is 83p, shareholders will likely cash in.
Spread is 1.26%/3.91% (gross/annualised, assuming all payments by 11 September for simplicity). Readacross: Triple Point (SOHO LN), at 49% discount/NAV, 10.1% dividend yield (covered 0.92x), could also be a target.


CK Asset Holdings/Civitas Social Housing: Recommended Offer

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Record number of UK funds now exposed to Real Estate sector.</li>
<li>CT, BlackRock and Quilter Among Funds Adding to Exposure Since Mid 2023.</li>
<li>SEGRO and Land Securities the key holdings and the drivers behind the recent rotation</li>
</ul>


Record number of UK funds now exposed to Real Estate sector.
CT, BlackRock and Quilter Among Funds Adding to Exposure Since Mid 2023.
SEGRO and Land Securities the key holdings and the drivers behind the recent rotation


Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run up to the September 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>I currently see one change for the F100 index and two separate changes for the F250 index.</li>
<li>There are several names lurking just outside the borders and could be involved in index changes in September 2023 if there are sharp price changes.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run up to the September 2023 Rebalance.
I currently see one change for the F100 index and two separate changes for the F250 index.
There are several names lurking just outside the borders and could be involved in index changes in September 2023 if there are sharp price changes.


Quiddity Leaderboard for F100/​​250 Sep 2023: One F100 Change and Two F250 Changes Likely

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Civitas Social Housing PLC / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Civitas Social Housing REIT’s consistently robust financial and operational performance continued through Q422, with an increase in the FY23 DPS target to at least 5.70p. We view positively initiatives that have been launched to promote greater regulatory alignment and address perceived sector lease risk. We will update our forecasts when the full FY22 results are published in June, but reflect the key unaudited Q422 NAV below. </p>

Civitas Social Housing REIT’s consistently robust financial and operational performance continued through Q422, with an increase in the FY23 DPS target to at least 5.70p. We view positively initiatives that have been launched to promote greater regulatory alignment and address perceived sector lease risk. We will update our forecasts when the full FY22 results are published in June, but reflect the key unaudited Q422 NAV below. 

Civitas Social Housing - Initiatives to underpin consistent performance

<p>Strong demand for care-based social housing underpins continuing positive accounting returns for Civitas Social Housing. The investment-grade credit rating has been reconfirmed and, alongside accretive share repurchases by the company, ‘insider’ share purchases demonstrate the confidence of the board and key members of the investment adviser team. This is not reflected in the share price, which offers an attractive 6.3% yield and c 19% discount to NAV.</p>

Strong demand for care-based social housing underpins continuing positive accounting returns for Civitas Social Housing. The investment-grade credit rating has been reconfirmed and, alongside accretive share repurchases by the company, ‘insider’ share purchases demonstrate the confidence of the board and key members of the investment adviser team. This is not reflected in the share price, which offers an attractive 6.3% yield and c 19% discount to NAV.

Civitas Social Housing - Focusing on the positive drivers

United Kingdom

Civitas Social Housing PLC operates as a real estate investment trust. The Company works with housing associations and local authorities to development social homes.

Civitas Social Housing PLC (CSH LN)

UK Real Estate Sector Hots Up

Record number of UK funds now exposed to Real Estate sector as SEGRO, Land Securities, and Berkeley Group Holdings emerge as top exposures among...

Steven Holden

Quiddity Leaderboard for F100/250 Sep 2023: One F100 Change and Two F250 Changes Likely

Hikma Pharmaceuticals and Johnson Matthey could be F100 ADD and DEL respectively. Alfa Financial Software and 888 holdings could be F250 ADDs while...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

CK Asset Holdings/Civitas Social Housing: Recommended Offer

CK Asset Holdings made a 80p/share cash takeover offer for value-destroyer Civitas Social Housing. Before announcement, Civitas traded at 50%...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

UK Real Estate Sector Hots Up

Record number of UK funds now exposed to Real Estate sector as SEGRO, Land Securities, and Berkeley Group Holdings emerge as top exposures among...

Steven Holden

Quiddity Leaderboard for F100/​​250 Sep 2023: One F100 Change and Two F250 Changes Likely

Hikma Pharmaceuticals and Johnson Matthey could be F100 ADD and DEL respectively. Alfa Financial Software and 888 holdings could be F250 ADDs while...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Civitas Social Housing - Initiatives to underpin consistent performance

Civitas Social Housing REIT’s consistently robust financial and operational performance continued through Q422, with an increase in the FY23 DPS...

Edison Investment Research

Civitas Social Housing - Focusing on the positive drivers

Strong demand for care-based social housing underpins continuing positive accounting returns for Civitas Social Housing. The investment-grade...

Edison Investment Research

Quiddity Leaderboard for F100/250 Sep 2023: One F100 Change and Two F250 Changes Likely