Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Starting this year, KRX will rebalance the KOSPI size index series (LargeCap, MidCap, and SmallCap) twice a year. Until last year, it was done once a year in March (the option expiration date). However, from this year, the rebalancing is done twice a year, in March and September.<div class="content-highlight"><ul>
<li>The screening method is simple and clear. It is based on the 3-month average daily market cap.</li>
<li>LargeCap includes 1st to 100th, and MidCap takes 101st to 300th.</li>
<li>The screening base date is the last trading day of February and August. So, this September rebalancing review period is June 1 to August 31.</li>
</ul></div><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/227/642/original/Screen+Shot+2021-09-02+at+10.06.47+PM.png?1630634901" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="227642"></figure></section>

Starting this year, KRX will rebalance the KOSPI size index series (LargeCap, MidCap, and SmallCap) twice a year. Until last year, it was done once a year in March (the option expiration date). However, from this year, the rebalancing is done twice a year, in March and September.
The screening method is simple and clear. It is based on the 3-month average daily market cap.
LargeCap includes 1st to 100th, and MidCap takes 101st to 300th.
The screening base date is the last trading day of February and August. So, this September rebalancing review period is June 1 to August 31.


KOSPI LargeCap & MidCap Rebalancing Preview on September 9

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

<h2>Eight new names, SoftBank remains for the 3rd quarter running</h2>
<ul>
<li>
OurQ2-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market cap-weighted average price decline of 2%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted a decline of 1.7% over the same period. The stock quality of our Q2 2021 decreased 2.4 points or 3.8% over the period. Within the mix of 34 stocks in our Q2 2021 (May) list 19 posted negative performance, with an average decline of 14.1%.</li>
<li>
At a static number of 34 stocks our Q3 2021 screen, delivers an interesting composition this quarter, with eight (8) new names and strong representation from Hong Kong in terms of geography and Industrials and Basic Materials from a sector perspective. This suggests that the “reopening of the economy” trade may have run its course for now.</li>
<li>Our Q3 2021 screen shows a further reduction in average stock rank (a reading on relative quality amongst the broad market peers with 100 being the highest) to 61 from 65.18 in Q2 2021.</li>
<li>
Stock specific focus: We discuss why SoftBank stands out as a stock that presents with additional risk. We also discuss the fact that whilst there is a high representation of Industrials in the list, within this list, there are several names that may warrant not being too bearish towards.</li>
</ul>

Eight new names, SoftBank remains for the 3rd quarter running


OurQ2-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market cap-weighted average price decline of 2%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted a decline of 1.7% over the same period. The stock quality of our Q2 2021 decreased 2.4 points or 3.8% over the period. Within the mix of 34 stocks in our Q2 2021 (May) list 19 posted negative performance, with an average decline of 14.1%.

At a static number of 34 stocks our Q3 2021 screen, delivers an interesting composition this quarter, with eight (8) new names and strong representation from Hong Kong in terms of geography and Industrials and Basic Materials from a sector perspective. This suggests that the “reopening of the economy” trade may have run its course for now.
Our Q3 2021 screen shows a further reduction in average stock rank (a reading on relative quality amongst the broad market peers with 100 being the highest) to 61 from 65.18 in Q2 2021.

Stock specific focus: We discuss why SoftBank stands out as a stock that presents with additional risk. We also discuss the fact that whilst there is a high representation of Industrials in the list, within this list, there are several names that may warrant not being too bearish towards.


Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

The Korea Fair Trade Commission (KFTC) annually designates local conglomerates having an aggregate asset value of more than ₩5T as a Business Group Subject to Disclosure. These are the largest industrial conglomerates designated as a Business Group Subject to Disclosure as of the last yearend.









Rank
Conglomerate
Aggregate asset value
Number of subsidiaries
Holdco type


1
Samsung
₩424.9T
59
De-facto operating holdco


2
Hyundai Motor
₩234.7T
54
-


3
SK
₩225.5T
125
Legitimate operating holdco


4
LG
₩137.0T
70
Legitimate pure holdco


5
Lotte
₩121.5T
86
Legitimate pure holdco


6
POSCO
₩80.3T
35
-


7
Hanwha
₩71.7T
86
De-facto pure holdco


8
GS
₩66.8T
69
Legitimate pure holdco


9
Hyundai Heavy Industries
₩62.9T
30
Legitimate pure holdco


10
Shinsegae
₩44.1T
41
-


11
KT
₩36.3T
44
-


12
CJ
₩34.5T
77
Legitimate pure holdco


13
Hanjin
₩33.6T
31
Legitimate pure holdco


14
Doosan
₩29.3T
25
De facto pure holdco


15
LS
₩23.7T
54
Legitimate operating holdco


16
Booyoung
₩23.3T
23
-


17
DL
₩18.7T
32
Legitimate operating holdco

Source: Kore Fair Trade Commission

Of these 17 largest industrial conglomerates having an aggregate asset value of more than ₩20T, 6 business groups are suitable for pair trading with a synthetic subsidiary.
Samsung Group
SK Group
LG Group
Lotte Group
Hanwha Group
CJ Group
Hyundai Motor Group is a circular shareholding structure, not suitable for pair trading. POSCO, Shinsegae, KT, LS, and DL have substantial operating operations outweighing their respective listed subsidiaries. GS and Hyundai Heavy Industries have a significant presence from the unlisted companies: GS Caltex and Hyundai Oilbank. Hanjin and Doosan are more of single-subsidiary holding companies. Lastly, Booyoung is a privately-held company.Discount to NAV Samsung C&amp;T has the highest discount to the NAV at 62.77%, followed by SK Inc with 52.14%. On the other hand, CJ Corp has the lowest discount at 34.19%. Hanwha Corp also has a lower discount than the others at 38.87%.











NAV
LG Corp
Samsung C&amp;T Corp
SK Inc
Lotte Corp
Hanwha Corp
CJ Corp


Value of listed holdings
₩41,080.4B
₩52,346.7B
₩24,237.4B
₩5,377.5B
₩4,501.4B
₩5,038.1B


- % of Holdco market cap
188.20%
201.51%
128.30%
139.29%
195.29%
158.42%


Value of unlisted holdings
₩2,631.7B
₩2,528.3B
₩9,890.5B
₩1,147.7B
₩1,657.0B
₩311.7B


Stub value
-₩21,883.7B
-₩28,897.7B
-₩15,236.2B
-₩2,664.6B
-₩3,853.5B
-₩2,169.5B


Stub value per share
-₩126,820
-₩154,626
-₩216,545
-₩25,399
-₩51,408
-₩74,357


Value of operating assets
₩0.0B
₩6,100.3B
₩2,235.2B
₩0.0B
₩0.0B
₩0.0B


GAV
₩43,712.1B
₩60,975.2B
₩36,363.1B
₩6,525.2B
₩6,158.4B
₩5,349.8B


GAV per share
₩253,320
₩373,019
₩695,187
₩92,157
₩89,623
₩197,713


Discount to GAV (excl. treasury shares)
50.06%
62.74%
61.38%
60.07%
65.69%
44.87%


Holdco net cash/debt (de-consolidated)
₩1,941.8B
₩268.6B
-₩6,879.4B
-₩1,764.4B
-₩2,330.8B
-₩357.6B


Value of pref shares
₩329.8B
₩219.7B
₩140.4B
₩63.2B
₩371.0B
₩510.3B


NAV
₩45,324.1B
₩61,024.1B
₩29,343.3B
₩4,697.6B
₩3,456.7B
₩4,481.9B


NAV per share (excl. treasury shares)
₩262,662
₩373,318
₩560,983
₩66,346
₩50,304
₩165,638


Discount to NAV
51.84%
62.77%
52.14%
44.53%
38.87%
34.19%

Source: KRX &amp; DART

Synthetic subsidiary weightThe number of subsidiaries in a synthetic varies from 2 to 4, representing 67.91% to 130.22% of the NAV. LG Corp has 4, the most, having a synthetic weight of 87.87% of the NAV. SK Inc has 3 subsidiaries in its synthetic, representing 67.91% of the NAV. 









Holdco pair
Number of subsidiaries in a synthetic
Synthetic subsidiary weight in NAV
Synthetic subsidiary weight in GAV


LG Corp
4
87.87%
91.11%


Samsung C&amp;T Corp
2
76.04%
76.10%


SK Inc
3
67.91%
54.80%


Lotte Corp
2
80.47%
57.93%


Hanwha Corp
3
130.22%
73.09%


CJ Corp
2
99.77%
83.58%

Source: KRX

Sigma on a 20-day moving averageWhen I'm writing this post (2 PM in Korea local time today), SK Inc and Hanwha Corp are in a diversion below -1.0σ on a 20-day moving average relative to their respective synthetic subsidiary. In contrast, CJ Corp is in a 2.0σ diversion, just the opposite way.











Sigma (σ) on a 20-day moving average
Today
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4


LG Corp
0.87
1.02
1.26
1.39
1.56


Samsung C&amp;T Corp
-0.47
-0.55
0.30
-2.25
-2.53


SK Inc
-1.41
-1.64
-1.67
-1.74
-1.81


Lotte Corp
0.86
1.44
1.91
1.97
2.64


Hanwha Corp
-1.16
-0.77
-0.96
0.44
1.35


CJ Corp
1.92
1.03
0.54
0.82
1.83

Source: KRX



Korea Top Conglomerates Synthetic Pair Trading

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

We have 8 in total currently sitting below -1.00σ on a 20-day moving average. Korean Air Lines 1P tops the list with a -2.07σ, closely followed by Namyang Dairy 1P and Samsung SDI 1P. CJ Corp's two preferred share types are also in a pretty substantial diversion relative to their ordinary share.









Preferred shares
Ticker
Market cap
Disparity to ordinary share
Sigma on a 20-day moving average


Korean Air Lines Co Ltd 1P
003495
₩44.9B
-37.88%
-2.07


Namyang Dairy Products Co., Ltd. 1P
003925
₩29.1B
54.50%
-1.97


Samsung SDI Co Ltd 1P
006405
₩677.9B
33.07%
-1.90


CJ Corp 1P
001045
₩146.5B
39.72%
-1.72


CJ Corp 4PB
00104K
₩358.0B
21.21%
-1.61


Yuhwa Securities Co., Ltd. 1P
003465
₩48.1B
-2.04%
-1.46


DL E&amp;C Ord Shs 1P
37550K
₩165.9B
43.73%
-1.42


Doosan Corp 1P
000155
₩192.6B
29.64%
-1.14

Source: KRX

These are the largest cap preferred shares having a market cap of ₩300B or more. Samsung Electronics 1P is still going strong at +2.00σ. Amorepacific 1P and AmoreG 3PB are also running away from their ordinary shares. Among the large-cap prefs, Samsung SDI 1P currently has the widest diversion, followed by CJ Corp 4PB. 









Preferred shares
Ticker
Market cap
Disparity to ordinary share
Sigma on a 20-day moving average


Samsung Electronics Co Ltd 1P
005935
₩60,811.3B
7.74%
2.00


Hyundai Motor Co 2PB
005387
₩4,122.9B
50.66%
0.91


LG Chem Ltd 1P
051915
₩3,129.3B
52.34%
0.98


Hyundai Motor Co 1P
005385
₩2,715.8B
51.31%
-0.44


LG Household &amp; Healthcare Ltd 1P
051905
₩1,495.0B
53.19%
1.09


LG Electronics Inc. 1P
066575
₩1,228.8B
51.85%
1.27


Amorepacific Corp 1P
090435
₩1,092.7B
64.49%
2.11


Mirae Asset Securities Co Ltd 2PB
00680K
₩690.2B
51.19%
0.11


Samsung SDI Co Ltd 1P
006405
₩677.9B
33.07%
-1.90


Samsung Fire &amp; Marine Insurance Co Ltd 1P
000815
₩528.3B
22.12%
-0.36


Korea Investment Holdings Co., Ltd. 1P
071055
₩509.7B
17.92%
-0.45


SHINYOUNG SECURITIES CO LTD 1P
001725
₩445.8B
-1.61%
1.92


Daishin Securities Co., Ltd 1P
003545
₩427.7B
12.27%
0.47


Kumho Petro Chemical Co Ltd 1P
011785
₩387.0B
47.54%
1.19


CJ Corp 4PB
00104K
₩358.0B
21.21%
-1.61


Amorepacific Group 3PB
00279K
₩352.8B
33.40%
2.51


Hanwha Corp 3PB
00088K
₩349.4B
51.10%
1.15


Samsung Electro-Mechanics Co., Ltd. 1P
009155
₩300.9B
37.08%
1.35

Source: KRX 




Korea Preferred Shares Disparity & Sigma, Feat. Samsung Electronics 1P & CJ Corp 4PB

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

Short selling has finally resumed in Korea and it has been a busy couple of days on that front with foreign investors piling into stocks that have run up more than their peers over the last year and are potentially overvalued.Long/short pairs could be implemented in Korea during the short sell ban if you had long inventory or if there were listed single stock futures on the short leg.With short selling permitted on constituents of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a>, we take a look at long/short pairs where both stocks are members of the index. These pairs belong to the same GICS sub-industry, are correlated and exhibit mean-reversion. We also use short sale data from the last couple of trading sessions to see which stocks are being targeted by short sellers.

Short selling has finally resumed in Korea and it has been a busy couple of days on that front with foreign investors piling into stocks that have run up more than their peers over the last year and are potentially overvalued.Long/short pairs could be implemented in Korea during the short sell ban if you had long inventory or if there were listed single stock futures on the short leg.With short selling permitted on constituents of the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX), we take a look at long/short pairs where both stocks are members of the index. These pairs belong to the same GICS sub-industry, are correlated and exhibit mean-reversion. We also use short sale data from the last couple of trading sessions to see which stocks are being targeted by short sellers.

Korea Pair Trades: High Risk/Reward Names with Short Sell Screen

South Korea

CJ Corp. is an investment holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, manufactures processed food products.  The subsidiaries' products include refined sugar, monosodium glutamate (MSG), condiment, wheat powder, flour, cooking oil, processed meats, and animal feed.

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CJ Corp (001040 KS)

KOSPI LargeCap & MidCap Rebalancing Preview on September 9

This post previews KOSPI Size Index Series rebalancing that is again scheduled for September 9, the same day as the KRX BBIG index.

Sanghyun Park

Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

Screening the Silk Road Q3 2021: Asia Pac High-risk names to avoid screening is out now. Eight new names, despite being down 23%, SoftBank remains...

David Lepper

Korea Top Conglomerates Synthetic Pair Trading

This post explores pair trading opportunities on Korea's top conglomerates using their major subsidiaries as a synthetic target for a hedge.

Sanghyun Park

Korea Preferred Shares Disparity & Sigma, Feat. Samsung Electronics 1P & CJ Corp 4PB

This post examines the current disparity and sigma of Korea's preferred shares relative to the ordinary shares. It then looks into the two prefs...

Sanghyun Park

Korea Pair Trades: High Risk/Reward Names with Short Sell Screen

With the resumption of short selling in Korea, we highlight correlated pairs from the same GICS sub-industry that are near reversion points and...

Brian Freitas

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