Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Cleveland-Cliffs saw its stock jump 21.5% in a single trading session following a Q3 2025 earnings report that significantly beat EBITDA expectations and unveiled a surprise strategic pivot toward rare earth minerals production.</li><li>This dramatic move has reenergized investor enthusiasm, particularly as it aligns with broader U.S. policy goals of reducing critical mineral dependence on China.</li><li>For the third quarter, the company reported adjusted EBITDA of $143 million versus Street estimates of $128 million, with revenue coming in at $4.7 billion.</li></ul>

Cleveland-Cliffs saw its stock jump 21.5% in a single trading session following a Q3 2025 earnings report that significantly beat EBITDA expectations and unveiled a surprise strategic pivot toward rare earth minerals production.This dramatic move has reenergized investor enthusiasm, particularly as it aligns with broader U.S. policy goals of reducing critical mineral dependence on China.For the third quarter, the company reported adjusted EBITDA of $143 million versus Street estimates of $128 million, with revenue coming in at $4.7 billion.

Cleveland-Cliffs Drops A Bombshell: Rare Earths, Auto Demand & Tariffs Drive MASSIVE Jump!

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Nippon Steel Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>FY26–30 plan lifts scale ambitions, but ¥6 tn capex and U.S. Steel integration keep free cash flow negative through FY26.</li>
<li>U.S. Steel synergies shift to FY27–28 amid labor, regulatory, and spread pressures, delaying ROCE recovery toward the 9–10% target.</li>
<li>Look cheap on NTM multiples, but elevated leverage, FX sensitivity, and sub-8% forward ROCE limit near-term re-rating.</li>
</ul>


FY26–30 plan lifts scale ambitions, but ¥6 tn capex and U.S. Steel integration keep free cash flow negative through FY26.
U.S. Steel synergies shift to FY27–28 amid labor, regulatory, and spread pressures, delaying ROCE recovery toward the 9–10% target.
Look cheap on NTM multiples, but elevated leverage, FX sensitivity, and sub-8% forward ROCE limit near-term re-rating.


Nippon Steel: Ambition Raised, Returns Deferred

<ul><li>Cleveland-Cliffs recently reported its second-quarter financial results for 2025, showcasing a mixed set of outcomes that highlight both strategic progress and ongoing challenges.</li><li>The company achieved significant operational efficiency, increasing its adjusted EBITDA by $271 million compared to the previous quarter.</li><li>This improvement was driven by higher shipment volumes, enhanced production efficiency, and strategic cost-cutting initiatives.</li></ul>

Cleveland-Cliffs recently reported its second-quarter financial results for 2025, showcasing a mixed set of outcomes that highlight both strategic progress and ongoing challenges.The company achieved significant operational efficiency, increasing its adjusted EBITDA by $271 million compared to the previous quarter.This improvement was driven by higher shipment volumes, enhanced production efficiency, and strategic cost-cutting initiatives.

Cleveland-Cliffs: An Insight Into Its Vertical Integration Efforts & Domestic Independence!

<ul>
<li>Q2 EBITDA of $97M beat expectations by $132M, driven by record shipments, a $15/ton cost cut, and ASP of $1,015/ton.</li>
<li>Management reaffirmed a $50/ton cost-reduction target, expects H2 free cash flow inflection, and sees stable shipments with pricing support.</li>
<li>Despite a 12.5% post-earnings rally, CLF trades at just 0.55x P/B and $653/ton EV, a steep discount to U.S. peers like Nucor and SDI.</li>
</ul>


Q2 EBITDA of $97M beat expectations by $132M, driven by record shipments, a $15/ton cost cut, and ASP of $1,015/ton.
Management reaffirmed a $50/ton cost-reduction target, expects H2 free cash flow inflection, and sees stable shipments with pricing support.
Despite a 12.5% post-earnings rally, CLF trades at just 0.55x P/B and $653/ton EV, a steep discount to U.S. peers like Nucor and SDI.


Cleveland-Cliffs Q2 FY25: Strong Beat, H2 Upside Intact, Valuation Still Undemanding

<ul>
<li>EBITDA loss of $174M, net loss of $483M, driven by weak auto demand, high costs, and continuing drag from AMNS slab contract; EBITDA/ton fell sharply to –$42.</li>
<li>Idling six facilities, exiting loss-making operations, $300M cost savings targeted in H2; slab contract expiry to add ~$500M EBITDA annually from 2026.</li>
<li>Deep value: Trading at 4.4x EV/EBITDA (2026E), 7.1x P/E, 0.55x P/B, and $653 EV/ton of full steelmaking capacity, reflecting deep cyclical pessimism.</li>
</ul>


EBITDA loss of $174M, net loss of $483M, driven by weak auto demand, high costs, and continuing drag from AMNS slab contract; EBITDA/ton fell sharply to –$42.
Idling six facilities, exiting loss-making operations, $300M cost savings targeted in H2; slab contract expiry to add ~$500M EBITDA annually from 2026.
Deep value: Trading at 4.4x EV/EBITDA (2026E), 7.1x P/E, 0.55x P/B, and $653 EV/ton of full steelmaking capacity, reflecting deep cyclical pessimism.


Cleveland-Cliffs: Weak Q1 Results, Restructuring Underway, Valuations Reflect Deep Discount

United States

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is an American iron ore mining company. The Company supplies iron ore pellets, lumps and fines to blast furnaces in the global steel industry. Cliffs is in the process of expanding its customer base to Electric Arc Furnaces.

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Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF US)

Cleveland-Cliffs Drops A Bombshell: Rare Earths, Auto Demand & Tariffs Drive MASSIVE Jump!

Cleveland-Cliffs saw its stock jump 21.5% in a single trading session following a Q3 2025 earnings report that significantly beat EBITDA...

Baptista Research

Nippon Steel: Ambition Raised, Returns Deferred

Despite ambitious scale ambitions and U.S. Steel integration, negative free cash flow is projected through FY26 due to capex etc., delaying ROCE...

Rahul Jain

Cleveland-Cliffs: An Insight Into Its Vertical Integration Efforts & Domestic Independence!

Cleveland-Cliffs recently reported its second-quarter financial results for 2025, showcasing a mixed set of outcomes that highlight both strategic...

Baptista Research

Cleveland-Cliffs Q2 FY25: Strong Beat, H2 Upside Intact, Valuation Still Undemanding

Cleveland-Cliffs beats expectations with strong Q2 EBITDA, plans for cost cuts and stable shipments, trading at a discount to peers.

Rahul Jain

Cleveland-Cliffs: Weak Q1 Results, Restructuring Underway, Valuations Reflect Deep Discount

Cleveland-Cliffs beat Q2 FY25 expectations with $97 mn of adjusted EBITDA (vs. an estimated loss), thanks to record 4.29 Mt steel shipments and...

Rahul Jain

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Cleveland-Cliffs Drops A Bombshell: Rare Earths, Auto Demand & Tariffs Drive MASSIVE Jump!

Cleveland-Cliffs saw its stock jump 21.5% in a single trading session following a Q3 2025 earnings report that significantly beat EBITDA...

Baptista Research

Nippon Steel: Ambition Raised, Returns Deferred

​Despite ambitious scale ambitions and U.S. Steel integration, negative free cash flow is projected through FY26 due to capex etc., delaying ROCE...

Rahul Jain

Cleveland-Cliffs: An Insight Into Its Vertical Integration Efforts & Domestic Independence!

Cleveland-Cliffs recently reported its second-quarter financial results for 2025, showcasing a mixed set of outcomes that highlight both strategic...

Baptista Research

Cleveland-Cliffs Q2 FY25: Strong Beat, H2 Upside Intact, Valuation Still Undemanding

​Cleveland-Cliffs beats expectations with strong Q2 EBITDA, plans for cost cuts and stable shipments, trading at a discount to peers.

Rahul Jain

Cleveland-Cliffs: Weak Q1 Results, Restructuring Underway, Valuations Reflect Deep Discount

Cleveland-Cliffs beat Q2 FY25 expectations with $97 mn of adjusted EBITDA (vs. an estimated loss), thanks to record 4.29 Mt steel shipments and...

Rahul Jain

Despite ambitious scale ambitions and U.S. Steel integration, negative free cash flow is projected through FY26 due to capex etc., delaying ROCE...

Cleveland-Cliffs beats expectations with strong Q2 EBITDA, plans for cost cuts and stable shipments, trading at a discount to peers.