Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation is based on a P/E of 21.9x (40% premium to the comps) our estimated net profit of 58.9 billion won in 2025. </li>
<li>We believe d'Alba Global should trade at a premium valuation to the comps due to higher sales and operating profit growth, higher ROE and operating margins than the comps. </li>
<li>Our base case valuation of d'Alba Global target price of 101,609 won per share, which represents 53% higher than the high end of the IPO valuation range. </li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation is based on a P/E of 21.9x (40% premium to the comps) our estimated net profit of 58.9 billion won in 2025. 
We believe d'Alba Global should trade at a premium valuation to the comps due to higher sales and operating profit growth, higher ROE and operating margins than the comps. 
Our base case valuation of d'Alba Global target price of 101,609 won per share, which represents 53% higher than the high end of the IPO valuation range. 


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> December rebalance complete, there could be 10 changes at the review.</li>
<li>The impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 0.24-7.3 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 0.5-6.4 days of ADV.</li>
<li>The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index</a> early in the review period, but there has been a small downward drift over the last 4 months.</li>
</ul>


With the review period for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) December rebalance complete, there could be 10 changes at the review.
The impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 0.24-7.3 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 0.5-6.4 days of ADV.
The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes and the KOSDAQ 150 Index early in the review period, but there has been a small downward drift over the last 4 months.


KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes a Side and Some Close Names

<ul>
<li>With over 85% of the review period complete, there could be 10 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>Even with 10 potential changes, there is sector balance with half the changes in the Information Technology sector. Passive trading impact varies from 0.2-7.7x ADV.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ150 Index</a> since the start of the review period, though there has been a gentle drift lower since July.</li>
</ul>


With over 85% of the review period complete, there could be 10 changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
Even with 10 potential changes, there is sector balance with half the changes in the Information Technology sector. Passive trading impact varies from 0.2-7.7x ADV.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the KOSDAQ150 Index since the start of the review period, though there has been a gentle drift lower since July.


KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes in December

<ul>
<li>With just over a third of the review period complete, there could be 12 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX EQUITY)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>Even with 12 potential changes, there is sector balance with over half the changes in the Information Technology sector. Passive trading impact varies from 0.04-4.1x ADV.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> since the start of the year with a big move higher since mid-May.</li>
</ul>


With just over a third of the review period complete, there could be 12 changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX EQUITY) at the December rebalance.
Even with 12 potential changes, there is sector balance with over half the changes in the Information Technology sector. Passive trading impact varies from 0.04-4.1x ADV.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) since the start of the year with a big move higher since mid-May.


KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: For Now, A Dozen Changes in December

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 10 May, Cosmecca Korea (241710 KS) announced that it plans to switch its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI. </li>
<li>The company plans to convene an extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on 29 August to finalize on the switching of Cosmecca Korea listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI. </li>
<li>Cosmecca Korea is one of the leading Korean ODM manufacturers of cosmetic products.</li>
</ul>


On 10 May, Cosmecca Korea (241710 KS) announced that it plans to switch its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI. 
The company plans to convene an extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on 29 August to finalize on the switching of Cosmecca Korea listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI. 
Cosmecca Korea is one of the leading Korean ODM manufacturers of cosmetic products.


Cosmecca Korea Plans to Switch Listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI

South Korea

Clio Cosmetics Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets lines of skin care and make-up products.  The Company owns multiple brands including Club Clio Professional, Peripera, and Goodal.

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Clio Cosmetics (237880 KS)

D'Alba Global IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of d'Alba Global target price of 101,609 won per share, which represents 53% higher than the high end of the IPO valuation...

Douglas Kim

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes a Side and Some Close Names

We forecast 10 changes a side for the index in December. There are names that are close to market cap/liquidity thresholds. The forecast adds...

Brian Freitas

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes in December

There could be 10 changes for the index in December. Passive trading impact varies from 0.2-7.7x ADV. The adds have outperformed the deletes since...

Brian Freitas

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: For Now, A Dozen Changes in December

There could be 12 changes for the KOSDAQ150 Index in December. The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the KOSDAQ150 Index...

Brian Freitas

Cosmecca Korea Plans to Switch Listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI

On 10 May, Cosmecca Korea (241710 KS) announced that it plans to switch its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI. Cosmecca Korea is one of the leading...

Douglas Kim

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