External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The US dollar (USD) has underperformed in the third quarter, reflecting a constellation of factors that have shaken up currency trading and injected renewed volatility into markets.</li><li>We had expected the USD to ease somewhat in H2 as cyclical factors turn less supportive and while USD losses have moderated somewhat in recent trading, the net impact is still a somewhat weaker USD than we had anticipated at this stage.</li><li>USD weakness can be largely explained by the following. Firstly, US yields eased in July and fell sharply in August following the release of a weaker-than-expected US July employment report. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The US dollar (USD) has underperformed in the third quarter, reflecting a constellation of factors that have shaken up currency trading and injected renewed volatility into markets.We had expected the USD to ease somewhat in H2 as cyclical factors turn less supportive and while USD losses have moderated somewhat in recent trading, the net impact is still a somewhat weaker USD than we had anticipated at this stage.USD weakness can be largely explained by the following. Firstly, US yields eased in July and fell sharply in August following the release of a weaker-than-expected US July employment report. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>VGI reported better-than-expected earnings results in 2QFY20/21 on the back of the resumption of ad spending.</li><li>We believe net profit will continue to improve in the rest of this year.</li><li>We thus maintain our Hold rating, with the SOTP-based TP of Bt7.80.</li></ul>

VGI reported better-than-expected earnings results in 2QFY20/21 on the back of the resumption of ad spending.We believe net profit will continue to improve in the rest of this year.We thus maintain our Hold rating, with the SOTP-based TP of Bt7.80.

Earnings Surpassed Breakeven Level in 2QFY20/21

<ul><li>VGI reported weak earnings results in 1QFY20/21 as expected, but improvement is likely in the remainder of the year thanks to the easing of the COVID-19 situation.</li><li>VGI delivered a net loss of Bt104mn in 1QFY20/21 (April-June 2020), weakening from a net profit of Bt304mn in 1QFY19/20 and Bt369mn in 4QFY19/20 given the adverse impact of COVID-19 and the countrywide lockdown on ad spending.</li><li>We stand by our net profit projection of Bt885mn in FY20/21E for VGI, as we believe earnings will improve starting from 2QFY20/21E onward thanks to the easing of the lockdowns.</li></ul>

VGI reported weak earnings results in 1QFY20/21 as expected, but improvement is likely in the remainder of the year thanks to the easing of the COVID-19 situation.VGI delivered a net loss of Bt104mn in 1QFY20/21 (April-June 2020), weakening from a net profit of Bt304mn in 1QFY19/20 and Bt369mn in 4QFY19/20 given the adverse impact of COVID-19 and the countrywide lockdown on ad spending.We stand by our net profit projection of Bt885mn in FY20/21E for VGI, as we believe earnings will improve starting from 2QFY20/21E onward thanks to the easing of the lockdowns.

<ul><li>We have a neutral view on the analyst meeting with BTS, as it was mostly in line with our expectations.</li><li>We maintain our Buy call with the SOTP-based TP of Bt13.00, not yet including the incremental value from U-Tapao Airport and the Orange Line.</li><li>BTS delivered a net profit of Bt8.2bn in FY19/20, including net extra items of Bt4.4bn.</li></ul>

We have a neutral view on the analyst meeting with BTS, as it was mostly in line with our expectations.We maintain our Buy call with the SOTP-based TP of Bt13.00, not yet including the incremental value from U-Tapao Airport and the Orange Line.BTS delivered a net profit of Bt8.2bn in FY19/20, including net extra items of Bt4.4bn.

<ul><li>We have a neutral view after the conference call with VGI, as the impact from the COVID-19 outbreak will continue to pressure the earnings performance while the bright prospects of KETH and digital services income are unlikely to offset the negatives.</li><li>We slightly cut VGI's earnings in the next two years, with the TP unchanged at Bt8.00 (SOTP).</li><li>As the outlook remains uncertain, we maintain our Hold rating for VGI.</li></ul>

We have a neutral view after the conference call with VGI, as the impact from the COVID-19 outbreak will continue to pressure the earnings performance while the bright prospects of KETH and digital services income are unlikely to offset the negatives.We slightly cut VGI's earnings in the next two years, with the TP unchanged at Bt8.00 (SOTP).As the outlook remains uncertain, we maintain our Hold rating for VGI.

Chile

The Chilean peso is the official currency of the Republic of Chile.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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CLP (USDCLP CURNCY)

Monthly FX Outlook – September 2024

The US dollar (USD) has underperformed in the third quarter, reflecting a constellation of factors that have shaken up currency trading and...

Scotiabank

Earnings Surpassed Breakeven Level in 2QFY20/21

VGI reported better-than-expected earnings results in 2QFY20/21 on the back of the resumption of ad spending. We believe net profit will continue...

Krungthai XSpring

Earnings Contained No Surprises

VGI reported weak earnings results in 1QFY20/21 as expected, but improvement is likely in the remainder of the year thanks to the easing of the...

Krungthai XSpring

Riding With New Opportunity

We have a neutral view on the analyst meeting with BTS, as it was mostly in line with our expectations. We maintain our Buy call with the...

Krungthai XSpring

Uncertainty Remains

We have a neutral view after the conference call with VGI, as the impact from the COVID-19 outbreak will continue to pressure the earnings...

Krungthai XSpring

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