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Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>TOP STORIES Cobalt / In Depth: Congo’s Cobalt Controls Deepen Uncertainty for Chinese Miner It has been a rough year for the world’s largest cobalt producer.</li><li>Shanghai-listed CMOC Group Ltd.</li><li>’s sales fell over 17% year-on-year in the second quarter, according to the miner’s earnings results.</li></ul>

TOP STORIES Cobalt / In Depth: Congo’s Cobalt Controls Deepen Uncertainty for Chinese Miner It has been a rough year for the world’s largest cobalt producer.Shanghai-listed CMOC Group Ltd.’s sales fell over 17% year-on-year in the second quarter, according to the miner’s earnings results.

CX Daily: Congo’s Cobalt Controls Deepen Uncertainty for Chinese Miner 

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Following Trump's threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.</li>
<li>The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hua-hong-semiconductor-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7201:1" rel="noopener">Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK)</a> are badly exposed.</li>
</ul>


Following Trump's threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.
The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. 

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Alibaba (9988 HK), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) are badly exposed.


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 59.8% as of Sep 26th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 2.9ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, information technology, financials and offset by real estate, materials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Cosco Shipping, Zijin Mining, Anjoy Foods, Goldwind, Haier Smart Home, ICBC.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 59.8% as of Sep 26th.
The average A-H premium changed by 2.9ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, information technology, financials and offset by real estate, materials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Cosco Shipping, Zijin Mining, Anjoy Foods, Goldwind, Haier Smart Home, ICBC.


A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 26th): Cosco Shipping, Zijin Mining, Anjoy Foods, Goldwind, Haier Smart Home

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

China Molybdenum Co Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>CMOC’s H1 2025 midpoint guidance signals a ~60% YoY surge in net profit, supported by higher copper and cobalt output and pricing.</li>
<li>With H1 tracking &gt;50% of full-year profit, FY2025 earnings could be revised 10–18% higher from internal estimates, with EPS approaching RMB 0.85.</li>
<li>Despite strong delivery, CMOC trades at ~10x forward earnings and ~4.5x EV/EBITDA; a rerating may depend on easing DRC constraints and sustained price tailwinds.</li>
</ul>


CMOC’s H1 2025 midpoint guidance signals a ~60% YoY surge in net profit, supported by higher copper and cobalt output and pricing.
With H1 tracking &gt;50% of full-year profit, FY2025 earnings could be revised 10–18% higher from internal estimates, with EPS approaching RMB 0.85.
Despite strong delivery, CMOC trades at ~10x forward earnings and ~4.5x EV/EBITDA; a rerating may depend on easing DRC constraints and sustained price tailwinds.


CMOC Group Ltd (SEHK: 3993 | SSE: 603993) – H1 Guidance Points to Strong Upside

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Index is the main benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in September 2025.</li>
<li>The index changes are expected to be confirmed on 22nd August 2025.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index is the main benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.
In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in September 2025.
The index changes are expected to be confirmed on 22nd August 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Sep25: BeOne, TME, and Pop Mart Among Our Top Picks

China

CMOC Group Limited operates as a mineral mining and exploration company. The Company focuses on non-ferrous metal mining. CMOC Group specializes in mining and trading of base and rare metals.

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CMOC Group (603993 CH)

CX Daily: Congo’s Cobalt Controls Deepen Uncertainty for Chinese Miner

TOP STORIES Cobalt / In Depth: Congo’s Cobalt Controls Deepen Uncertainty for Chinese Miner It has been a rough year for the world’s largest...

Caixin Global

HK Strategy: Who Will Suffer the Most?

Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 26th): Cosco Shipping, Zijin Mining, Anjoy Foods, Goldwind, Haier Smart Home

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Cosco Shipping, Zijin Mining, Anjoy Foods, Goldwind, Haier...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CMOC Group Ltd (SEHK: 3993 | SSE: 603993) – H1 Guidance Points to Strong Upside

CMOC’s stock rally post its August 22, 2025, H1 results is driven by a 60% net profit surge to CNY 8.67 billion, fueled by a 20.7% cobalt output...

Rahul Jain

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Sep25: BeOne, TME, and Pop Mart Among Our Top Picks

The official index change results for the Hang Seng index Sep25 review will be announced publicly on Friday (after market close). This might be a...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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52-week Range

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CX Daily: Congo’s Cobalt Controls Deepen Uncertainty for Chinese Miner

TOP STORIES Cobalt / In Depth: Congo’s Cobalt Controls Deepen Uncertainty for Chinese Miner It has been a rough year for the world’s largest...

Caixin Global

HK Strategy: Who Will Suffer the Most?

​Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 26th): Cosco Shipping, Zijin Mining, Anjoy Foods, Goldwind, Haier Smart Home

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Cosco Shipping, Zijin Mining, Anjoy Foods, Goldwind, Haier...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CMOC Group Ltd (SEHK: 3993 | SSE: 603993) – H1 Guidance Points to Strong Upside

CMOC’s stock rally post its August 22, 2025, H1 results is driven by a 60% net profit surge to CNY 8.67 billion, fueled by a 20.7% cobalt output...

Rahul Jain

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Sep25: BeOne, TME, and Pop Mart Among Our Top Picks

The official index change results for the Hang Seng index Sep25 review will be announced publicly on Friday (after market close). This might be a...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...