HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK) </a>will suffer from a higher USD rate as Trump's massive deportation plan raises inflation.  High-cash companies will better position, however.</li>
<li>The surge in tariffs on US imports of goods from China will further accelerate supply chain diversification, boosting intra-Asia trade and driving <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC (883 HK)</a> may gain from a slowdown in the green transition in the US as oil prices are supported. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meitu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23573:1" rel="noopener">Meitu Inc (1357 HK)</a>, given its crypto investments, will benefit. </li>
</ul>



China Southern Airlines (1055 HK) will suffer from a higher USD rate as Trump's massive deportation plan raises inflation.  High-cash companies will better position, however.
The surge in tariffs on US imports of goods from China will further accelerate supply chain diversification, boosting intra-Asia trade and driving SITC International (1308 HK). 

CNOOC (883 HK) may gain from a slowdown in the green transition in the US as oil prices are supported. Meitu Inc (1357 HK), given its crypto investments, will benefit. 


China & HK Strategy: Some Stocks for Trump Trade

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 25th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Geely Automobile, SMIC, Cosco Shipping.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 25th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Geely Automobile, SMIC, Cosco Shipping.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Oct 25th): Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Geely Automobile, SMIC, Cosco Shipping

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Event-Driven

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND had a huge week on a net basis on smallest gross in weeks. Last week I said I expected High-div SOEs to continue being sold. They were sold again.</li>
<li>Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities saw big buying as a percentage of volume traded. Only China Mobile and CNOOC were net sold. Even <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> was bought.</li>
<li>There is clearly a HK Risk On angle to the flows this week and last.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND had a huge week on a net basis on smallest gross in weeks. Last week I said I expected High-div SOEs to continue being sold. They were sold again.
Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities saw big buying as a percentage of volume traded. Only China Mobile and CNOOC were net sold. Even China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) was bought.
There is clearly a HK Risk On angle to the flows this week and last.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 25 Oct 2024); Everything Bought in BIG Week

<ul>
<li>This past week saw mainland investors trade HK$476bn of stock. Not as big as last "week" but still big. BABA buying has slowed, but net buying was still HK$24.4bn </li>
<li>The buying is starting to see a longer tail of net positive names, and properties this week saw big net buying, even before the Sunac placement which added more.</li>
<li>High-Div SOEs are seeing outflows as beta sees inflows. I expect this to continue.</li>
</ul>


This past week saw mainland investors trade HK$476bn of stock. Not as big as last "week" but still big. BABA buying has slowed, but net buying was still HK$24.4bn 
The buying is starting to see a longer tail of net positive names, and properties this week saw big net buying, even before the Sunac placement which added more.
High-Div SOEs are seeing outflows as beta sees inflows. I expect this to continue.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 Oct 2024); Net Flows Big, Selling in Brokers, Buying in Props

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was a net buyer the last five trading days (from before GW to 14 Oct). HUGE gross flows. Decent net flows. Very big in few names (BABA included).</li>
<li>The Guotai Junnan/Haitong merger pushed H-share brokers hard, but SB wasn't buying. They bought <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Things may settle down a little bit as the fiscal policy announcements are out of the way, but I expect the trend is still your friend (until it bends). </li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was a net buyer the last five trading days (from before GW to 14 Oct). HUGE gross flows. Decent net flows. Very big in few names (BABA included).
The Guotai Junnan/Haitong merger pushed H-share brokers hard, but SB wasn't buying. They bought Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK), Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK). 
Things may settle down a little bit as the fiscal policy announcements are out of the way, but I expect the trend is still your friend (until it bends). 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Oct 2024); A HUGE 5td; Net Flows Strong but BABA Dominant

China

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The Company focuses in the areas such as Bohai, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea in offshore China. Internationally, the Group has oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania.

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CNOOC Ltd (ADR) (CEO US)

China & HK Strategy: Some Stocks for Trump Trade

A higher USD rate due to Trump's deportation plan will impact CSA. Tariff surge on US imports from China will boost SITC. CNOOC may benefit from...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Oct 25th): Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Geely Automobile, SMIC, Cosco Shipping

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Geely Automobile, SMIC, Cosco...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 25 Oct 2024); Everything Bought in BIG Week

SOUTHBOUND investors go big this week buying everything but China Mobile and CNOOC. Every sector was positive. This is a risk-on move in large net...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 Oct 2024); Net Flows Big, Selling in Brokers, Buying in Props

HK Southbound Connect investors traded HK$475bn and net bough HK$24bn+ this past week, with almost every sector seeing inflows except tech. Some...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Oct 2024); A HUGE 5td; Net Flows Strong but BABA Dominant

SOUTHBOUND flows continue to be very strong on a gross basis. But HK-listed tech isn't getting the love unless it is named Alibaba. Strong moves,...

Travis Lundy

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China & HK Strategy: Some Stocks for Trump Trade

​A higher USD rate due to Trump's deportation plan will impact CSA. Tariff surge on US imports from China will boost SITC. CNOOC may benefit from...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Oct 25th): Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Geely Automobile, SMIC, Cosco Shipping

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Geely Automobile, SMIC, Cosco...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 25 Oct 2024); Everything Bought in BIG Week

SOUTHBOUND investors go big this week buying everything but China Mobile and CNOOC. Every sector was positive. This is a risk-on move in large net...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 Oct 2024); Net Flows Big, Selling in Brokers, Buying in Props

HK Southbound Connect investors traded HK$475bn and net bough HK$24bn+ this past week, with almost every sector seeing inflows except tech. Some...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Oct 2024); A HUGE 5td; Net Flows Strong but BABA Dominant

SOUTHBOUND flows continue to be very strong on a gross basis. But HK-listed tech isn't getting the love unless it is named Alibaba. Strong moves,...

Travis Lundy

A higher USD rate due to Trump's deportation plan will impact CSA. Tariff surge on US imports from China will boost SITC. CNOOC may benefit from...