FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

The US equity market was running with an optimistic assessment that there is a Trump and Fed put, that a trade deal and Chinese policy stimulus would generate a recovery in the global economy and the US economy was largely immune to a slowdown in activity abroad. However, the tariffs have been increased, trade talks have stalled, and the US has rolled out bans on Chinese tech companies.  The evidence grows that there is a structural rift in US-China trade relations. The rebound in Chinese economic activity in March was not backed up by data in other Asian exporter nations or Europe through April.  Chinese activity data slumped again in April, and the latest PMI data in the Eurozone, Japan and the USA for May are weak. Oil and copper prices have turned lower, suggesting that industrial activity remains weak.  We continue to see downside risk for still elevated US equities.  The strength in the USD to date is contributing to downward pressure on US equities.  The gains in the USD may have become over-extended.  China may pursue a more stable CNY for a period and lower US yields should support safe haven currencies, JPY, CHF and gold.

The US equity market was running with an optimistic assessment that there is a Trump and Fed put, that a trade deal and Chinese policy stimulus would generate a recovery in the global economy and the US economy was largely immune to a slowdown in activity abroad. However, the tariffs have been increased, trade talks have stalled, and the US has rolled out bans on Chinese tech companies.  The evidence grows that there is a structural rift in US-China trade relations. The rebound in Chinese economic activity in March was not backed up by data in other Asian exporter nations or Europe through April.  Chinese activity data slumped again in April, and the latest PMI data in the Eurozone, Japan and the USA for May are weak. Oil and copper prices have turned lower, suggesting that industrial activity remains weak.  We continue to see downside risk for still elevated US equities.  The strength in the USD to date is contributing to downward pressure on US equities.  The gains in the USD may have become over-extended.  China may pursue a more stable CNY for a period and lower US yields should support safe haven currencies, JPY, CHF and gold.

FX & Rates

The trade dispute has escalated in the last two weeks and looks set to be a war of attrition.  This is not good for the Chinese economy, or the US economy.  It is not good for global growth and will detract from the performance of more trade-dependent economies.Threats to global investor confidence include tensions between the US and Iran.  Combined with the trade war between the US and China, and Brexit chaos, there appears to be good reasons for the market to be trimming exposure to high beta assets (equities, high yield credit, EM markets) and increasing exposure to safe haven currencies – Gold and JPY.  Bond yields and rate expectations are behaving more rationally, with yields falling.It is hard to say that the USD should continue to strengthen when US yields have fallen more than most other countries in recent weeks.  But at this stage, there are few other alternatives.  Gold seems to be an obvious choice, especially if China were to respond to their dispute with the US by seeking an alternative for their US Treasury holdings.

The trade dispute has escalated in the last two weeks and looks set to be a war of attrition.  This is not good for the Chinese economy, or the US economy.  It is not good for global growth and will detract from the performance of more trade-dependent economies.Threats to global investor confidence include tensions between the US and Iran.  Combined with the trade war between the US and China, and Brexit chaos, there appears to be good reasons for the market to be trimming exposure to high beta assets (equities, high yield credit, EM markets) and increasing exposure to safe haven currencies – Gold and JPY.  Bond yields and rate expectations are behaving more rationally, with yields falling.It is hard to say that the USD should continue to strengthen when US yields have fallen more than most other countries in recent weeks.  But at this stage, there are few other alternatives.  Gold seems to be an obvious choice, especially if China were to respond to their dispute with the US by seeking an alternative for their US Treasury holdings.

CNY falls sharply illustrating that China bears most of the fallout from the trade war.  The US economy also suffers, mostly from the risk that China boycotts US brands, but Trump may have a significant advantage.  Bilateral US tariff policy may be an effective policy to counter China’s policy of subsidizing and regulatory support of its industry.  Trump can see a political gain from the trade war and is unlikely to easily back down.  The escalation in the dispute is likely to more permanently dampen optimism that the global economy will soon rebound from its slowdown.  Downward pressure on CNY is dragging down Asian currencies, although in the long run, production may shift to other Asian nations and support their currencies.  The AUD is dragged down both as an Asian currency and a commodity currency.  The EUR stabilizes, even though the EU economy is threatened, for the same reason JPY gains – little room for yields to fall, current account surplus, a reduction in carry trades.  Safe-haven currencies gain against a weakened USD; including bitcoin.

CNY falls sharply illustrating that China bears most of the fallout from the trade war.  The US economy also suffers, mostly from the risk that China boycotts US brands, but Trump may have a significant advantage.  Bilateral US tariff policy may be an effective policy to counter China’s policy of subsidizing and regulatory support of its industry.  Trump can see a political gain from the trade war and is unlikely to easily back down.  The escalation in the dispute is likely to more permanently dampen optimism that the global economy will soon rebound from its slowdown.  Downward pressure on CNY is dragging down Asian currencies, although in the long run, production may shift to other Asian nations and support their currencies.  The AUD is dragged down both as an Asian currency and a commodity currency.  The EUR stabilizes, even though the EU economy is threatened, for the same reason JPY gains – little room for yields to fall, current account surplus, a reduction in carry trades.  Safe-haven currencies gain against a weakened USD; including bitcoin.

Trump Presses His Advantage Against China; CNY Drags Down Asian Currencies

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<h2>Many foreign policy experts still underestimate the significance of Putin’s pivot to China</h2>The most significant development in Russia’s foreign policy over recent years beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union, has been the development of a much closer political relationship with China contrary to the expectations of most observers.Historically, Russian leaders have tended to look towards the West and to operate a largely independent foreign policy based on Russia’s perceived self-interest, taking each issue on its own merits. This attempt to play a balancing role now seems to have ended following the breakdown in the relationship with the West, resulting in Putin’s pivot towards China, which might have occurred at the worst possible time from a geopolitical and economic perspective.

Many foreign policy experts still underestimate the significance of Putin’s pivot to ChinaThe most significant development in Russia’s foreign policy over recent years beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union, has been the development of a much closer political relationship with China contrary to the expectations of most observers.Historically, Russian leaders have tended to look towards the West and to operate a largely independent foreign policy based on Russia’s perceived self-interest, taking each issue on its own merits. This attempt to play a balancing role now seems to have ended following the breakdown in the relationship with the West, resulting in Putin’s pivot towards China, which might have occurred at the worst possible time from a geopolitical and economic perspective.

China and Russia; an Axis of Authoritarianism

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>
No evidence of major monetary easing by China</li>
<li>PBoC (People’s Bank) actually withdrawing cash from money markets</li>
<li>Broader liquidity measures show at best flat-lining
</li>
<li>Tightness likely a deliberate precautionary policy during China-US trade talks</li>
<li>Consequently, more Chinese easing will likely come in second-half of 2019</li>
</ul>



No evidence of major monetary easing by China
PBoC (People’s Bank) actually withdrawing cash from money markets
Broader liquidity measures show at best flat-lining

Tightness likely a deliberate precautionary policy during China-US trade talks
Consequently, more Chinese easing will likely come in second-half of 2019


China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

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CNY (USDCNY CURNCY)

The Global Recovery Narrative Crumbles

The US equity market was running with an optimistic assessment that there is a Trump and Fed put, that a trade deal and Chinese policy stimulus...

Greg Gibbs

Global Risks Escalate

The trade dispute has escalated in the last two weeks and looks set to be a war of attrition. This is not good for the Chinese economy, or the US...

Greg Gibbs

Trump Presses His Advantage Against China; CNY Drags Down Asian Currencies

CNY falls sharply illustrating that China bears most of the fallout from the trade war. The US economy also suffers, mostly from the risk that...

Greg Gibbs

China and Russia; an Axis of Authoritarianism

Many foreign policy experts still underestimate the significance of Putin’s pivot to ChinaThe most significant development in Russia’s foreign...

John-Paul Smith

Why Is China Destroying Liquidity?

No evidence of major monetary easing by China PBoC (People’s Bank) actually withdrawing cash from money markets Broader liquidity measures show...

Michael J. Howell

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