Russian GDP Growth Slipped to 0.5%yoy in 1Q. Can Russia Build Its Way Out of the Slump?

China: The Shift to a More Autarkic Governance Regime Will Hurt the Economy and Investors

Trade War/Huawei/Stocks/Tiananmen/Electric Vehicles

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<h2><strong>Many foreign policy experts still underestimate the significance of Putin’s pivot to China</strong></h2><p>The most significant development in Russia’s foreign policy over recent years beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union, has been the development of a much closer political relationship with China contrary to the expectations of most observers.</p><p>Historically, Russian leaders have tended to look towards the West and to operate a largely independent foreign policy based on Russia’s perceived self-interest, taking each issue on its own merits. This attempt to play a balancing role now seems to have ended following the breakdown in the relationship with the West, resulting in Putin’s pivot towards China, which might have occurred at the worst possible time from a geopolitical and economic perspective.</p>

Many foreign policy experts still underestimate the significance of Putin’s pivot to ChinaThe most significant development in Russia’s foreign policy over recent years beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union, has been the development of a much closer political relationship with China contrary to the expectations of most observers.Historically, Russian leaders have tended to look towards the West and to operate a largely independent foreign policy based on Russia’s perceived self-interest, taking each issue on its own merits. This attempt to play a balancing role now seems to have ended following the breakdown in the relationship with the West, resulting in Putin’s pivot towards China, which might have occurred at the worst possible time from a geopolitical and economic perspective.

China and Russia; an Axis of Authoritarianism