FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The fall in gold may make sense against the stronger USD.  However, it is odd to see it underperform other G10 currencies in an environment of higher global market volatility and increasing inflation pressure in the US.  The steep fall in CNY may reflect a new policy era under a new central bank governor, allowing currency flexibility to act as a shock absorber for the economy. It hasn't led to capital flight from China, and this may be helping limit contagion to global markets.  However, weak Chinese currency and equities are spreading more clearly to Asian markets. The threat of tariffs has not significantly dampened activity indicators in Asia or globally.  US surveys are still reporting rude health.  Inflation risks are rising in the US and are likely to keep the Fed raising rates at a steady pace.  The USD may remain relatively strong against most other currencies while it continues to raise rates.  Negative feedback from global market volatility and tariffs to US markets and economic confidence may not be sufficient yet to halt the USD’s advance.

The fall in gold may make sense against the stronger USD.  However, it is odd to see it underperform other G10 currencies in an environment of higher global market volatility and increasing inflation pressure in the US.  The steep fall in CNY may reflect a new policy era under a new central bank governor, allowing currency flexibility to act as a shock absorber for the economy. It hasn't led to capital flight from China, and this may be helping limit contagion to global markets.  However, weak Chinese currency and equities are spreading more clearly to Asian markets. The threat of tariffs has not significantly dampened activity indicators in Asia or globally.  US surveys are still reporting rude health.  Inflation risks are rising in the US and are likely to keep the Fed raising rates at a steady pace.  The USD may remain relatively strong against most other currencies while it continues to raise rates.  Negative feedback from global market volatility and tariffs to US markets and economic confidence may not be sufficient yet to halt the USD’s advance.

Gold Confounds, A New Era of CNY Flexibility, Inflation Pressure Builds in the USA

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

We have been bearish/short core Asia for months now led by the bullish USD cycle that kicked off in April 2018. It is the Shanghai composite break below macro support that is showing higher degree resolution in the Asian cycle. Trade fears were simply the trigger and outflows are providing bear momentum that should lead us into capitulation and an intermediate cycle low near late July (according to our cycle work).We use the A 50 futures for positioning (been short for some time) but the…

We have been bearish/short core Asia for months now led by the bullish USD cycle that kicked off in April 2018. It is the Shanghai composite break below macro support that is showing higher degree resolution in the Asian cycle. Trade fears were simply the trigger and outflows are providing bear momentum that should lead us into capitulation and an intermediate cycle low near late July (according to our cycle work).We use the A 50 futures for positioning (been short for some time) but the…

CNH Tactical Peak with HK Short and Long Targets

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

With FAI (fixed asset investment) up just 6.1% YoY in Jan-May 2018 (the slowest in 22 years), China cut banks' RRR for the second time in 10 weeks. But that effective easing of monetary policy (via a boost to the money-multiplier through a 150bp cut in reserve requirements) failed. With the US (and key EMs like India, Indonesia and Turkey) raising interest rates, the RMB depreciated by 3.6% in the second half of June 2018, its biggest depreciation in any fortnight for 24 years. Even when the RMB…

With FAI (fixed asset investment) up just 6.1% YoY in Jan-May 2018 (the slowest in 22 years), China cut banks' RRR for the second time in 10 weeks. But that effective easing of monetary policy (via a boost to the money-multiplier through a 150bp cut in reserve requirements) failed. With the US (and key EMs like India, Indonesia and Turkey) raising interest rates, the RMB depreciated by 3.6% in the second half of June 2018, its biggest depreciation in any fortnight for 24 years. Even when the RMB…

China Can't Afford the Widening Conflict with the US: RMB's Fall Is Thin End of a Strategic Wedge

The rapid demise in Chinese assets on Monday on rehashed news that the US is set to announce investment restrictions, despite RRR cuts, reveals a deeper vulnerability in investor confidence in China.  The US equity market started to show signs of negative feedback from the US administration’s protectionist policies.  The remarkably contradictory comments by Navarro breed even more confusion than normal over White House policy.  If economic and investor confidence has been unsettled in Asia and Europe, and the USA is starting to feel negative feedback from its own policies, gold may be poised for a recovery.

The rapid demise in Chinese assets on Monday on rehashed news that the US is set to announce investment restrictions, despite RRR cuts, reveals a deeper vulnerability in investor confidence in China.  The US equity market started to show signs of negative feedback from the US administration’s protectionist policies.  The remarkably contradictory comments by Navarro breed even more confusion than normal over White House policy.  If economic and investor confidence has been unsettled in Asia and Europe, and the USA is starting to feel negative feedback from its own policies, gold may be poised for a recovery.

Negative Feedback from US Protectionist Policies May Boost Gold

Trade war escalates and the horse bolts in Asian EM assets.  Uncertainty is likely to remain elevated for some time, keeping Asian EM markets in a weaker trend.  It seems unlikely that the trade threat will de-escalate.  In fact, the risk is high that it ratchets up with the US yet to announce restrictions on Chinese investment in US companies.  The US administration is still investigating tariffs on European cars.  The trade war may also bring to the surface other threats such as weaker credit growth in China.  AUD is trading more like an emerging market asset.  Australian bank funding costs continue to squeeze higher; this appears to be viewed as a vulnerability in the Australian financial system.

Trade war escalates and the horse bolts in Asian EM assets.  Uncertainty is likely to remain elevated for some time, keeping Asian EM markets in a weaker trend.  It seems unlikely that the trade threat will de-escalate.  In fact, the risk is high that it ratchets up with the US yet to announce restrictions on Chinese investment in US companies.  The US administration is still investigating tariffs on European cars.  The trade war may also bring to the surface other threats such as weaker credit growth in China.  AUD is trading more like an emerging market asset.  Australian bank funding costs continue to squeeze higher; this appears to be viewed as a vulnerability in the Australian financial system.

Trade War Horse Bolts, AUD Trades like an Emerging Market Asset

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

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CNY (USDCNY CURNCY)

Gold Confounds, A New Era of CNY Flexibility, Inflation Pressure Builds in the USA

The fall in gold may make sense against the stronger USD. However, it is odd to see it underperform other G10 currencies in an environment of...

Greg Gibbs

CNH Tactical Peak with HK Short and Long Targets

We have been bearish/short core Asia for months now led by the bullish USD cycle that kicked off in April 2018. It is the Shanghai composite break...

Thomas Schroeder

China Can't Afford the Widening Conflict with the US: RMB's Fall Is Thin End of a Strategic Wedge

With FAI (fixed asset investment) up just 6.1% YoY in Jan-May 2018 (the slowest in 22 years), China cut banks' RRR for the second time in 10 weeks....

Prasenjit K. Basu

Negative Feedback from US Protectionist Policies May Boost Gold

The rapid demise in Chinese assets on Monday on rehashed news that the US is set to announce investment restrictions, despite RRR cuts, reveals a...

Greg Gibbs

Trade War Horse Bolts, AUD Trades like an Emerging Market Asset

Trade war escalates and the horse bolts in Asian EM assets. Uncertainty is likely to remain elevated for some time, keeping Asian EM markets in a...

Greg Gibbs

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