India Twin Deficit Watch: CAD Shrinking to 0.2% of GDP, Fiscal Deficit Back on Target
CAD likely to shrink to 0.2% of GDP in FY26 as US tariffs bite, offsetting larger services surplus. With corporate tax revenue rebounding from...
204 Views
India: RBI Cuts 25bp but the Real Policy Rate Is Still Too High at +5%
RBI cut rates 25bp but remains behind the curve, as its inflation forecasts were and remain too high. We expect another 75bp of rate cuts by...
383 Views
India: 8.2%YoY Growth in Q2FY26; to Accelerate to 9%YoY in Oct'25-Sep'26
Expect real GDP growth of 8.5% in FY26 and 8.2% in FY27 as 2pp lower GST and strong farm incomes boost private consumption, while low inflation...
195 Views
China: Winning the Trade War While Still Imploding Domestically
China's record trade surplus, despite stronger RMB, shows China has won 1st phase of the trade war. Vulnerabilities (big net capital outflows,...
365 Views
US: No More Rate Cuts Likely from the Powell Fed; More Dovish FOMC by Q2 2026
FOMC cut by 25bp, but wants to bring inflation back to 2% target. No-QT amounts to easing, precluding rate cuts until Jan'26, with next cut...
479 Views