Rate-Cutting Agenda Stays, Growth Buoyed by Massive Fiscal Stimulus
Fiscal deficits averaged 9.95% of GDP in 2020-2023, M2 growth 18.2%YoY in Mar'20-Feb'22. Latter needs to decline faster in Q2CY24 to offset the...
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India: Merchandise and Services Both Help Toward a CA Surplus in CY24
Goods exports grew 7.5%YoY in Jan-Feb24, leading to a decline in the merchandise deficit. With the services surplus up 20%YoY, a swing to a...
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China's Growth Constrained by Crisis of Industrial & RE Over-Capacity
PBoC's recent rate cuts are unlikely to sufficiently address China's real estate crisis and economic slowdown, with challenges including high...
153 Views
Elections Likely to Hand a Decisive Mandate to Strongman Prabowo
Controversial ex-general Prabowo is poised to win the presidential election with Jokowi's son as his running-mate, potentially leading to unstable...
283 Views
US: On Track for a Rate Cut in Jun'24 as Core PCE Inflation Eases MoM and YoY
Real GDP grew 2.5% in CY23, but slower PCE and government spending will reduce growth to ~1% in H1CY24. Core PCE inflation eased to 2.93%YoY in...
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