Indonesia: Prabowo Risk Beginning to Hurt IDR, Requiring Tighter Money
Despite a smaller fiscal deficit (1.6% of GDP) in 2023, markets are pricing in "Prabowo risk". The switch to a current account deficit will...
221 Views
US Benign This Year: Trade Recession Over, but Rates Still Likely to Decline
Global trade volume grew 0.4% in 2023, but lead indicators suggest a strong 2024 recovery. Benign MoM rises in core PCE should enable YoY inflation...
206 Views
Rate-Cutting Agenda Stays, Growth Buoyed by Massive Fiscal Stimulus
Fiscal deficits averaged 9.95% of GDP in 2020-2023, M2 growth 18.2%YoY in Mar'20-Feb'22. Latter needs to decline faster in Q2CY24 to offset the...
295 Views
India: Merchandise and Services Both Help Toward a CA Surplus in CY24
Goods exports grew 7.5%YoY in Jan-Feb24, leading to a decline in the merchandise deficit. With the services surplus up 20%YoY, a swing to a...
201 Views
China's Growth Constrained by Crisis of Industrial & RE Over-Capacity
PBoC's recent rate cuts are unlikely to sufficiently address China's real estate crisis and economic slowdown, with challenges including high...
154 Views