Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>CAD for H1FY26 (Apr-Sep'25) was 0.8% of GDP. Despite the continued expansion of the services surplus, we expect a CAD of 0.2% of GDP in FY26 as US tariffs bite. </li>
<li>The 12mma of the fiscal deficit was 4.6% of GDP in Oct'25. The 12mma of corporate tax revenue troughed in Feb'25, income tax revenue in Jul'25; both have since rebounded. </li>
<li>Despite the fiscal stimulus via GST rate reductions, the recovery in direct tax revenue will likely ensure the fiscal deficit target (4.4% of GDP) will be comfortably achieved. </li>
</ul>


CAD for H1FY26 (Apr-Sep'25) was 0.8% of GDP. Despite the continued expansion of the services surplus, we expect a CAD of 0.2% of GDP in FY26 as US tariffs bite. 
The 12mma of the fiscal deficit was 4.6% of GDP in Oct'25. The 12mma of corporate tax revenue troughed in Feb'25, income tax revenue in Jul'25; both have since rebounded. 
Despite the fiscal stimulus via GST rate reductions, the recovery in direct tax revenue will likely ensure the fiscal deficit target (4.4% of GDP) will be comfortably achieved. 


India Twin Deficit Watch: CAD Shrinking to 0.2% of GDP, Fiscal Deficit Back on Target

<ul>
<li>RBI's MPC cut 25bp as expected, but it remains behind the curve, with the real policy rate now excessively high at +5%. RBI inflation forecasts were and remain too high. </li>
<li>Food deflation is likely to be shortlived, with vegetable prices rising MoM since May'25. But all other food and non-food inflation components are moderating, and GST cuts impart further disinflation. </li>
<li>We expect inflation to be 1.8%YoY in Q4FY26 (vs RBI's 2.9%YoY forecast), 2.3% and 2.5% in Q1 and Q2FY27, so expect another 75bp reduction in repo rate by Aug'26. </li>
</ul>


RBI's MPC cut 25bp as expected, but it remains behind the curve, with the real policy rate now excessively high at +5%. RBI inflation forecasts were and remain too high. 
Food deflation is likely to be shortlived, with vegetable prices rising MoM since May'25. But all other food and non-food inflation components are moderating, and GST cuts impart further disinflation. 
We expect inflation to be 1.8%YoY in Q4FY26 (vs RBI's 2.9%YoY forecast), 2.3% and 2.5% in Q1 and Q2FY27, so expect another 75bp reduction in repo rate by Aug'26. 


India: RBI Cuts 25bp but the Real Policy Rate Is Still Too High at +5%

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

Equity Bottom-Up

PC Partner Group Ltd. is principally engaged in the design, development and manufacture of video graphics cards. The Group manufactures various electronics components and products for customers under its electronics manufacturing services division and also manufactures other personal computers related products.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pc-partner-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8492:1" rel="noopener">PC Partner (1263 HK)</a> announced it was completing its delisting from HK and moving to Singapore</li>
<li>The move to Singapore was a "life or death" situation for the company, as staying in HK precluded it from having access to Nvidia's latest chips</li>
<li>2026 will be a crucial year to determine PC Partner's future outlook</li>
</ul>



PC Partner (1263 HK) announced it was completing its delisting from HK and moving to Singapore
The move to Singapore was a "life or death" situation for the company, as staying in HK precluded it from having access to Nvidia's latest chips
2026 will be a crucial year to determine PC Partner's future outlook


PC Partner: Delisting in HK on 14 January 2026, Only on SGX Going Forward

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk operates department stores and specialty stores selling a broad range of goods including clothing, toys, food, and other merchandise.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa</a> stands out as Indonesia’s leading retailers, with an impressive portfolio of brands across segments, a dominant presence in major malls across Indonesia, and a strong online presence. </li>
<li>MAPI booked a solid set of results in 3Q2025, with momentum continuing into October, as consumer sentiment has started to improve, with active outperforming. Digital, F&amp;B, and fashion are improving  </li>
<li>The company's international business is seeing better performance, especially in Thailand and the Philippines, with expansion remaining on track, and management expressing a more optimistic view for 4Q2025 and beyond.</li>
</ul>



Mitra Adiperkasa stands out as Indonesia’s leading retailers, with an impressive portfolio of brands across segments, a dominant presence in major malls across Indonesia, and a strong online presence. 
MAPI booked a solid set of results in 3Q2025, with momentum continuing into October, as consumer sentiment has started to improve, with active outperforming. Digital, F&amp;B, and fashion are improving  
The company's international business is seeing better performance, especially in Thailand and the Philippines, with expansion remaining on track, and management expressing a more optimistic view for 4Q2025 and beyond.


Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Recovery in Motion

<ul>
<li>Unlike the consensus, we weren't surprised by the 8.2%YoY real GDP growth in Jul-Sep'25, as the sharp moderation in inflation dampened the GDP deflator too. </li>
<li>We retain our forecast of 9%YoY growth in Oct'25-Sep'26, led by stronger PCE after the cut in GST rates and likely boost to farm incomes from the strong monsoon-fed crop. </li>
<li>With CPI inflation far below the 2-6% RBI target, policy rates will need to steadily decline, boosting GFCF. We expect 8.5% RGDP growth in FY26, and 8.2% in FY27. </li>
</ul>


Unlike the consensus, we weren't surprised by the 8.2%YoY real GDP growth in Jul-Sep'25, as the sharp moderation in inflation dampened the GDP deflator too. 
We retain our forecast of 9%YoY growth in Oct'25-Sep'26, led by stronger PCE after the cut in GST rates and likely boost to farm incomes from the strong monsoon-fed crop. 
With CPI inflation far below the 2-6% RBI target, policy rates will need to steadily decline, boosting GFCF. We expect 8.5% RGDP growth in FY26, and 8.2% in FY27. 


India: 8.2%YoY Growth in Q2FY26; to Accelerate to 9%YoY in Oct'25-Sep'26

CrossASEAN Research
Insights across South East Asia

India Twin Deficit Watch: CAD Shrinking to 0.2% of GDP, Fiscal Deficit Back on Target

CAD likely to shrink to 0.2% of GDP in FY26 as US tariffs bite, offsetting larger services surplus. With corporate tax revenue rebounding from...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: RBI Cuts 25bp but the Real Policy Rate Is Still Too High at +5%

RBI cut rates 25bp but remains behind the curve, as its inflation forecasts were and remain too high. We expect another 75bp of rate cuts by...

Prasenjit K. Basu

PC Partner: Delisting in HK on 14 January 2026, Only on SGX Going Forward

PC Partner (1263 HK) completes delisting from HK, moves to Singapore for access to Nvidia chips, 2026 crucial for future outlook.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Recovery in Motion

MAPI booked a solid set of results in 3Q2025, with momentum continuing into October, as consumer sentiment has started to improve, with active...

Angus Mackintosh

India: 8.2%YoY Growth in Q2FY26; to Accelerate to 9%YoY in Oct'25-Sep'26

Expect real GDP growth of 8.5% in FY26 and 8.2% in FY27 as 2pp lower GST and strong farm incomes boost private consumption, while low inflation...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: CAD Shrinking to 0.2% of GDP, Fiscal Deficit Back on Target

​CAD likely to shrink to 0.2% of GDP in FY26 as US tariffs bite, offsetting larger services surplus. With corporate tax revenue rebounding from...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: RBI Cuts 25bp but the Real Policy Rate Is Still Too High at +5%

​RBI cut rates 25bp but remains behind the curve, as its inflation forecasts were and remain too high. We expect another 75bp of rate cuts by...

Prasenjit K. Basu

PC Partner: Delisting in HK on 14 January 2026, Only on SGX Going Forward

​PC Partner (1263 HK) completes delisting from HK, moves to Singapore for access to Nvidia chips, 2026 crucial for future outlook.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Recovery in Motion

MAPI booked a solid set of results in 3Q2025, with momentum continuing into October, as consumer sentiment has started to improve, with active...

Angus Mackintosh

India: 8.2%YoY Growth in Q2FY26; to Accelerate to 9%YoY in Oct'25-Sep'26

​Expect real GDP growth of 8.5% in FY26 and 8.2% in FY27 as 2pp lower GST and strong farm incomes boost private consumption, while low inflation...

Prasenjit K. Basu

CAD likely to shrink to 0.2% of GDP in FY26 as US tariffs bite, offsetting larger services surplus. With corporate tax revenue rebounding from...

RBI cut rates 25bp but remains behind the curve, as its inflation forecasts were and remain too high. We expect another 75bp of rate cuts by...

PC Partner (1263 HK) completes delisting from HK, moves to Singapore for access to Nvidia chips, 2026 crucial for future outlook.

Expect real GDP growth of 8.5% in FY26 and 8.2% in FY27 as 2pp lower GST and strong farm incomes boost private consumption, while low inflation...