Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Pc Partner reported its second-best year ever in FY22. But FY22 was divided into two distinct halves: a strong 1H22 and one of the worst halves 2H22.</li>
<li>FY23 looks to be another challenging year as margins stay under pressure and are unlikely to come back to FY21-FY22 levels but could revert to FY17-FY19 levels.</li>
<li>Over the past two years, Pc Partner had a large net cash buffer, but this is no longer the case. We expect the stock to revisit 2-3 HKD range.</li>
</ul>


Pc Partner reported its second-best year ever in FY22. But FY22 was divided into two distinct halves: a strong 1H22 and one of the worst halves 2H22.
FY23 looks to be another challenging year as margins stay under pressure and are unlikely to come back to FY21-FY22 levels but could revert to FY17-FY19 levels.
Over the past two years, Pc Partner had a large net cash buffer, but this is no longer the case. We expect the stock to revisit 2-3 HKD range.


PC Partner: Difficult 1H23 with Improvement in 2H23 as Nvidia Ramps up RTX Series

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pc-partner-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8492:1" rel="noopener">PC Partner (1263 HK)</a> has been a small-cap gem we have written about on numerous occasions. The company is not a buy &amp; hold stock but in September 2020 we called it "very cheap" <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pc-partner-poor-man-s-play-on-nvidia-part-2-trades-at-2x-fy20-p-e-and-14-dividend-yield" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43227" rel="noopener">PC Partner: Poor-Man's Play on Nvidia  (Part 2); Trades at 2x FY20 P/E and 14% Dividend Yield</a> when it was trading at 1.2 HKD/share. Fast forward one year and the company just reported close to 1 billion HKD in net profit and is paying an interim dividend of 0.84 HKD on 1H21. This is a 14% interim dividend yield on a stock that closed at 5.82 HKD recently. While a year ago the company was in a net debt position today the balance sheet is rock solid and approximately 65% of the market cap is cash.So far Mr. Market has met last Friday's results with a big yawn as the stock barely moved. Investors are assuming results will fall off a cliff in 2H21 and into 2022. Now, what if we told you 2H21 results could grow over 1H21? Cash on the balance sheet has ballooned to 65% of market cap and even taking into account the large interim distribution we forecast cash to grow to over 100% of current market cap by late 2021! Pc Partner has a history of doing shareholder friendly things (buybacks, tender offers, special dividends) and we expect this to continue. The wild card with Pc Partner is if the tight supply and fantastic pricing of VGA's will last for just one more quarter or well into 2022.For now there is no indication that 3Q trends have changed meaningfully from 2Q21. This implies that bumper profits will continue at least this quarter. Historically, 4Q is always Pc Partner's strongest quarter and if Covid strikes again in EU/USA winter season we see no reason why demand for PC's/gaming will drop off sharply. As echoed by several car manufacturers and chip suppliers we see no end in sight for chip shortages keeping ASP's elevated. This gets us to a scenario (not guarantee!) that 2H21 profits might actually be higher vs 1H21 profits. It would be an understatement to say that Pc Partner is NOT priced for this scenario at all.Fair Value raised to 10 HKD (2x 5HKD FY2021 EPS estimate). Major risk here is the VGA supply situation improves drastically and ASP's fall. The company is scheduled to hold a conf call with investors next week and we look forward to more guidance at this time.

PC Partner (1263 HK) has been a small-cap gem we have written about on numerous occasions. The company is not a buy &amp; hold stock but in September 2020 we called it "very cheap" PC Partner: Poor-Man's Play on Nvidia  (Part 2); Trades at 2x FY20 P/E and 14% Dividend Yield when it was trading at 1.2 HKD/share. Fast forward one year and the company just reported close to 1 billion HKD in net profit and is paying an interim dividend of 0.84 HKD on 1H21. This is a 14% interim dividend yield on a stock that closed at 5.82 HKD recently. While a year ago the company was in a net debt position today the balance sheet is rock solid and approximately 65% of the market cap is cash.So far Mr. Market has met last Friday's results with a big yawn as the stock barely moved. Investors are assuming results will fall off a cliff in 2H21 and into 2022. Now, what if we told you 2H21 results could grow over 1H21? Cash on the balance sheet has ballooned to 65% of market cap and even taking into account the large interim distribution we forecast cash to grow to over 100% of current market cap by late 2021! Pc Partner has a history of doing shareholder friendly things (buybacks, tender offers, special dividends) and we expect this to continue. The wild card with Pc Partner is if the tight supply and fantastic pricing of VGA's will last for just one more quarter or well into 2022.For now there is no indication that 3Q trends have changed meaningfully from 2Q21. This implies that bumper profits will continue at least this quarter. Historically, 4Q is always Pc Partner's strongest quarter and if Covid strikes again in EU/USA winter season we see no reason why demand for PC's/gaming will drop off sharply. As echoed by several car manufacturers and chip suppliers we see no end in sight for chip shortages keeping ASP's elevated. This gets us to a scenario (not guarantee!) that 2H21 profits might actually be higher vs 1H21 profits. It would be an understatement to say that Pc Partner is NOT priced for this scenario at all.Fair Value raised to 10 HKD (2x 5HKD FY2021 EPS estimate). Major risk here is the VGA supply situation improves drastically and ASP's fall. The company is scheduled to hold a conf call with investors next week and we look forward to more guidance at this time.

PC Partner: 1H21 Off the Chart Results To Be Followed by Large Div Stream; 65% of Mkt Cap Is Cash

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 2023 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" was commodity heavy with 4 of our 5 picks coming from this sector. Three out of five declined between 15-25%. </li>
<li>Our best performer was unloved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4382:1" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a> which returned 234% even beating <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> YTD performance.  Miracles happen: Coal mining beats AI.</li>
<li>Our 2024 vintage of top ideas for the year will hopefully have a higher hit ratio. See below for more details which are our five high conviction ideas for 2024.</li>
</ul>


The 2023 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" was commodity heavy with 4 of our 5 picks coming from this sector. Three out of five declined between 15-25%. 
Our best performer was unloved Mongolian Mining (975 HK) which returned 234% even beating NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) YTD performance.  Miracles happen: Coal mining beats AI.
Our 2024 vintage of top ideas for the year will hopefully have a higher hit ratio. See below for more details which are our five high conviction ideas for 2024.


Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2023...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2024

<ul>
<li>Pc Partner posted record results with revenue and profits increasing by 99%% and 1,047% respectively. The final 1.61 HKD dividend was below my 2 HKD estimate but still solid.</li>
<li>Cash grew to 3.1 b HKD vs a market cap of 4.37 b HKD, or 70% of market cap. By end of FY22 cash could be 100% of market cap.</li>
<li>The outlook is mixed with short-term ASP pressure into 2Q22 but longer-term optimism into 2H22. As always visibility is low but offset by a cheap valuation and large cash buffer.</li>
</ul>


Pc Partner posted record results with revenue and profits increasing by 99%% and 1,047% respectively. The final 1.61 HKD dividend was below my 2 HKD estimate but still solid.
Cash grew to 3.1 b HKD vs a market cap of 4.37 b HKD, or 70% of market cap. By end of FY22 cash could be 100% of market cap.
The outlook is mixed with short-term ASP pressure into 2Q22 but longer-term optimism into 2H22. As always visibility is low but offset by a cheap valuation and large cash buffer.


PC Partner: Record FY21 Results and Strong Dividend. Cash Is 70% of Market Cap. Fair Value 18 HKD.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pc-partner-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8492:1" rel="noopener">PC Partner (1263 HK)</a> issued a positive profit alert 15/12/2021.</li>
<li>Company will report FY21 results in 60 days which will be the best ever. 1H22 is on track to show growth YoY. </li>
<li>Forecast exceptional dividend to celebrate 25-yr since founding and 10-yr since IPO. </li>
</ul>



PC Partner (1263 HK) issued a positive profit alert 15/12/2021.
Company will report FY21 results in 60 days which will be the best ever. 1H22 is on track to show growth YoY. 
Forecast exceptional dividend to celebrate 25-yr since founding and 10-yr since IPO. 


Preview PC Partner FY21 Earnings: Record Profit + Record Dividend + Strong Outlook for FY22

Hong Kong

PC Partner Group Ltd. is principally engaged in the design, development and manufacture of video graphics cards. The Group manufactures various electronics components and products for customers under its electronics manufacturing services division and also manufactures other personal computers related products.

PC Partner (1263 HK)

PC Partner: Difficult 1H23 with Improvement in 2H23 as Nvidia Ramps up RTX Series

Pc Partner is facing a rough outlook in FY23 as FY21-FY22 margins revert lower to levels seen between FY17-FY19. The net cash buffer has declined...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

PC Partner: 1H21 Off the Chart Results To Be Followed by Large Div Stream; 65% of Mkt Cap Is Cash

PC Partner reported record 1H21 results and declared a 0.84 HKD interim dividend. Mr.Market assumes results will not remain this good in 2H21 but...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2023...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2024

Our stand-out performer in FY23 was little loved Mongolia Mining. For FY24 we provide five new names which we think can perform strongly.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

PC Partner: Record FY21 Results and Strong Dividend. Cash Is 70% of Market Cap. Fair Value 18 HKD.

Pc Partner has delivered record revenues and profits in FY21. The dividend yield on FY21 results is over 20%. Fair Value remains unchanged at 18 HKD.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Preview PC Partner FY21 Earnings: Record Profit + Record Dividend + Strong Outlook for FY22

Pc Partner issued a positive profit alert last month. We preview its FY21 results due in 60 days and expect more of the same in FY22. On an ex-cash...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven