Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

With new China data it’s easy to consider a fairly benign growth environment.  The reality is more striking. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) publishes claims on non-financial institutions for China’s banks, which is essentially corporate lending.  Growth has just reached a 10-year low of 6.1% YoY in February. Where these loans are 2.5x the level of consumer loans, they are important and their trend, a reasonable reflection of economic strength. In any case, the first two months of 2017 are far…

With new China data it’s easy to consider a fairly benign growth environment.  The reality is more striking. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) publishes claims on non-financial institutions for China’s banks, which is essentially corporate lending.  Growth has just reached a 10-year low of 6.1% YoY in February. Where these loans are 2.5x the level of consumer loans, they are important and their trend, a reasonable reflection of economic strength. In any case, the first two months of 2017 are far…

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

FX & Rates

Unpacking the CNH Spread and Why It MattersThe offshore CNH has lingered at a significant premium for more than a month, though it dropped yesterday, prompting questions about the significance of this differential with the onshore RMB.  Previously, CNH premium had come briefly during periods of significant tightness.  This ongoing premium shift appears to chart Beijing policy for the year going forward and the pricing impact.When the CNH is at a premium, this gives firms an incentive to…

Unpacking the CNH Spread and Why It MattersThe offshore CNH has lingered at a significant premium for more than a month, though it dropped yesterday, prompting questions about the significance of this differential with the onshore RMB.  Previously, CNH premium had come briefly during periods of significant tightness.  This ongoing premium shift appears to chart Beijing policy for the year going forward and the pricing impact.When the CNH is at a premium, this gives firms an incentive to…

What Is the Implication of the CNH Premium?

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

The Trump team present a fiery defense against potentially damaging allegations over its conduct, appealing to their loyalist following with a focus on repealing Obamacare, building a wall, attacking the media, and accusing intelligence agencies of Gestapo tactics. The Theatre generated volatility and a further correction in the USD, creating doubts over the capacity of the next presidency to deliver on tax reform and infrastructure spending that might boost US  growth.  Gyrations may also have been exacerbated by recent efforts by China to reduce capital outflow that might be supporting US Treasury bonds, boosting Chinese commodity futures and weakening Bitcoin.  Meanwhile, stronger economic growth indicators in the US and abroad, higher inflation readings in China and rising market-based inflation expectations suggest upward pressure on global yields and the USD should resume before long.  US PPI, retail sales and University of Michigan surveys of consumer sentiment and inflation expectations before end-week may provide support for yields and the USD.

The Trump team present a fiery defense against potentially damaging allegations over its conduct, appealing to their loyalist following with a focus on repealing Obamacare, building a wall, attacking the media, and accusing intelligence agencies of Gestapo tactics. The Theatre generated volatility and a further correction in the USD, creating doubts over the capacity of the next presidency to deliver on tax reform and infrastructure spending that might boost US  growth.  Gyrations may also have been exacerbated by recent efforts by China to reduce capital outflow that might be supporting US Treasury bonds, boosting Chinese commodity futures and weakening Bitcoin.  Meanwhile, stronger economic growth indicators in the US and abroad, higher inflation readings in China and rising market-based inflation expectations suggest upward pressure on global yields and the USD should resume before long.  US PPI, retail sales and University of Michigan surveys of consumer sentiment and inflation expectations before end-week may provide support for yields and the USD.

Trump Drama and China Capital Flow Crackdown Generate Market Hiccup

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Had a spot on Bloomberg this morning.To view click on this link: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-01-06/2017-outlook-what-s-in-store-for-currencies" target="_blank">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-01-06/2017-outlook-what-s-in-store-for-currencies</a><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/018/718/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1483695685" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="18718"></figure><div class="content-caption">Bloomberg interview</div>This Bloomberg invterview covers the following:1. S&amp;P base case view for a rise to 2,400, followed by a meaningful correction.2. DXY bullish view toward 104.15/107 and 117 under the assumption DXY holds the 100 breakout level while allowing for noise to 99 during a January-February corrective cycle.3.  USD/JPY pushing on…

Had a spot on Bloomberg this morning.To view click on this link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-01-06/2017-outlook-what-s-in-store-for-currenciesBloomberg interviewThis Bloomberg invterview covers the following:1. S&amp;P base case view for a rise to 2,400, followed by a meaningful correction.2. DXY bullish view toward 104.15/107 and 117 under the assumption DXY holds the 100 breakout level while allowing for noise to 99 during a January-February corrective cycle.3.  USD/JPY pushing on…

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Rapid  growth from a dynamic economy once defined China, as it modernized its huge industrial sector. Now an ageing and declining population, combined with sluggish growth paint a different picture. Are the best years already passed?

Rapid  growth from a dynamic economy once defined China, as it modernized its huge industrial sector. Now an ageing and declining population, combined with sluggish growth paint a different picture. Are the best years already passed?

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

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CNY (USDCNY CURNCY)

Weakening Credit in 1Q17 in China

With new China data it’s easy to consider a fairly benign growth environment. The reality is more striking. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC)...

Daniel Tabbush

What Is the Implication of the CNH Premium?

Unpacking the CNH Spread and Why It MattersThe offshore CNH has lingered at a significant premium for more than a month, though it dropped...

Christopher Balding

Trump Drama and China Capital Flow Crackdown Generate Market Hiccup

The Trump team present a fiery defense against potentially damaging allegations over its conduct, appealing to their loyalist following with a...

Greg Gibbs

FX/Equity Bloomberg Interview

Had a spot on Bloomberg this morning.To view click on this...

Thomas Schroeder

Signs of a Smaller, Less Dynamic China

Rapid growth from a dynamic economy once defined China, as it modernized its huge industrial sector. Now an ageing and declining population,...

Bixmoor

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