Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

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Coca-Cola Femsa SAB de CV / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Sales grew 10% YoY to P$70.2bn, above our estimates and consensus, and despite consolidated volumes contracting 2.2% YoY, vs our flattish expectations; volumes contracted in Mexico & Central America.</li><li>Excluding FX tailwinds, sales grew 5.9% YoY, and average price per UC, meanwhile, grew 12.7% YoY.</li><li> Profitability was mostly better than expected, driven by cost efficiencies and lower raw material costs, such as sweeteners, while partially offset by FX headwinds from USD-denominated raw materials.</li></ul>

Sales grew 10% YoY to P$70.2bn, above our estimates and consensus, and despite consolidated volumes contracting 2.2% YoY, vs our flattish expectations; volumes contracted in Mexico & Central America.Excluding FX tailwinds, sales grew 5.9% YoY, and average price per UC, meanwhile, grew 12.7% YoY. Profitability was mostly better than expected, driven by cost efficiencies and lower raw material costs, such as sweeteners, while partially offset by FX headwinds from USD-denominated raw materials.

Actinver Research - KOF 1Q25: Healthy results (Quick View)

<ul><li>Sales grew 14.3% YoY to P$75.5bn, above our estimates and consensus.</li><li>Consolidated volumes grew 2.2% YoY, also above our estimates, driven by performance in Brazil, Mexico and Guatemala.</li><li>Total sales were further driven by better sales mix and FX tailwinds; excluding the latter, sales grew 13% YoY.</li></ul>

Sales grew 14.3% YoY to P$75.5bn, above our estimates and consensus.Consolidated volumes grew 2.2% YoY, also above our estimates, driven by performance in Brazil, Mexico and Guatemala.Total sales were further driven by better sales mix and FX tailwinds; excluding the latter, sales grew 13% YoY.

Actinver Research - KOF 4Q24: Solid results (Quick View)

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In the midst of the soft top-line performance, management remains cautious, expecting more cost and Capex efficiencies, and a tough consumer environment with consumers remaining more selective as in previous quarters.</li>
<li>Still, most companies reiterated their FY25 guidance, with Bimbo an exception amid different FX conditions vs previously forecasted, and with Chedraui expecting downside risks at the top-line level.</li>
<li>Within Food &amp; Bev, we continue to prefer AC, KOF, FEMSA and Becle (all Outperform). With no major PT changes, we continue to expect these players to outperform peers despite volume pressure and the excise taxes planned for next year. </li>
</ul>


In the midst of the soft top-line performance, management remains cautious, expecting more cost and Capex efficiencies, and a tough consumer environment with consumers remaining more selective as in previous quarters.
Still, most companies reiterated their FY25 guidance, with Bimbo an exception amid different FX conditions vs previously forecasted, and with Chedraui expecting downside risks at the top-line level.
Within Food &amp; Bev, we continue to prefer AC, KOF, FEMSA and Becle (all Outperform). With no major PT changes, we continue to expect these players to outperform peers despite volume pressure and the excise taxes planned for next year. 


Actinver Research - Consumer Post 3Q25 Update

<ul>
<li>ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%, respectively, and c.2x YTD averages.</li>
<li>Calendar tailwinds and payday timing drove the strong print despite persistent weather challenges.</li>
<li>The recovery was mainly driven by favorable calendar effects: August included one additional full weekend versus last year, and both bi-weekly paydays coincided with weekends, boosting traffic and consumption. </li>
</ul>


ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%, respectively, and c.2x YTD averages.
Calendar tailwinds and payday timing drove the strong print despite persistent weather challenges.
The recovery was mainly driven by favorable calendar effects: August included one additional full weekend versus last year, and both bi-weekly paydays coincided with weekends, boosting traffic and consumption. 


Actinver Research - Retail Update: ANTAD August SSS and Feedback from Store Tour

<ul>
<li>Soft expectations were met by resilient results.</li>
<li>As expected, weather headwinds and a weak consumer environment weighed on results.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, while top-line was fairly in line with our estimates, margins contracted less than expected, as companies benefitted from different strategies —along with mix, FX in some cases, and efficiencies— to protect profitability.</li>
</ul>


Soft expectations were met by resilient results.
As expected, weather headwinds and a weak consumer environment weighed on results.
Nonetheless, while top-line was fairly in line with our estimates, margins contracted less than expected, as companies benefitted from different strategies —along with mix, FX in some cases, and efficiencies— to protect profitability.


Actinver Research - Consumer Post 2Q25 Update

Mexico

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (Femsa) bottles beverages. The Company bottles and distributes branded beverages in parts of North, Central and South America. In some countries Femsa also markets water, beer, and other products.

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Coca-Cola Femsa SAB de CV (KOF US)

Actinver Research - KOF 1Q25: Healthy results (Quick View)

Sales grew 10% YoY to P$70.2bn, above our estimates and consensus, and despite consolidated volumes contracting 2.2% YoY, vs our flattish...

Actinver

Actinver Research - KOF 4Q24: Solid results (Quick View)

Sales grew 14.3% YoY to P$75.5bn, above our estimates and consensus. Consolidated volumes grew 2.2% YoY, also above our estimates, driven by...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Consumer Post 3Q25 Update

We highlight Becle given its solid margin performance, ahead of our previous upbeat estimates, even after accounting for non-recurring items

Actinver

Actinver Research - Retail Update: ANTAD August SSS and Feedback from Store Tour

ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%,...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Consumer Post 2Q25 Update

On average, our covered Consumer companies grew top line by 8% YoY (vs. 7% forecasted), and EBITDA by 5% (vs. our 3% estimate).

Actinver

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