Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In the midst of the soft top-line performance, management remains cautious, expecting more cost and Capex efficiencies, and a tough consumer environment with consumers remaining more selective as in previous quarters.</li>
<li>Still, most companies reiterated their FY25 guidance, with Bimbo an exception amid different FX conditions vs previously forecasted, and with Chedraui expecting downside risks at the top-line level.</li>
<li>Within Food &amp; Bev, we continue to prefer AC, KOF, FEMSA and Becle (all Outperform). With no major PT changes, we continue to expect these players to outperform peers despite volume pressure and the excise taxes planned for next year. </li>
</ul>


In the midst of the soft top-line performance, management remains cautious, expecting more cost and Capex efficiencies, and a tough consumer environment with consumers remaining more selective as in previous quarters.
Still, most companies reiterated their FY25 guidance, with Bimbo an exception amid different FX conditions vs previously forecasted, and with Chedraui expecting downside risks at the top-line level.
Within Food &amp; Bev, we continue to prefer AC, KOF, FEMSA and Becle (all Outperform). With no major PT changes, we continue to expect these players to outperform peers despite volume pressure and the excise taxes planned for next year. 


Actinver Research - Consumer Post 3Q25 Update

<ul>
<li>ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%, respectively, and c.2x YTD averages.</li>
<li>Calendar tailwinds and payday timing drove the strong print despite persistent weather challenges.</li>
<li>The recovery was mainly driven by favorable calendar effects: August included one additional full weekend versus last year, and both bi-weekly paydays coincided with weekends, boosting traffic and consumption. </li>
</ul>


ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%, respectively, and c.2x YTD averages.
Calendar tailwinds and payday timing drove the strong print despite persistent weather challenges.
The recovery was mainly driven by favorable calendar effects: August included one additional full weekend versus last year, and both bi-weekly paydays coincided with weekends, boosting traffic and consumption. 


Actinver Research - Retail Update: ANTAD August SSS and Feedback from Store Tour

<ul>
<li>Soft expectations were met by resilient results.</li>
<li>As expected, weather headwinds and a weak consumer environment weighed on results.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, while top-line was fairly in line with our estimates, margins contracted less than expected, as companies benefitted from different strategies —along with mix, FX in some cases, and efficiencies— to protect profitability.</li>
</ul>


Soft expectations were met by resilient results.
As expected, weather headwinds and a weak consumer environment weighed on results.
Nonetheless, while top-line was fairly in line with our estimates, margins contracted less than expected, as companies benefitted from different strategies —along with mix, FX in some cases, and efficiencies— to protect profitability.


Actinver Research - Consumer Post 2Q25 Update

<ul>
<li>Soft consumer environment, with weaker conditions at the beginning of the year vs the company’s expectations; a warmer season didn’t help either.</li>
<li>While some companies did start to see an improvement in late 1Q25-early 2Q25, a meaningful trend across all covered companies is not identified.</li>
<li>Companies in the meantime are focusing on cost efficiencies and battling competitive pressures, as pricing —and traffic for retailers— is the main driver yet limited by consumers’ elasticity.</li>
</ul>


Soft consumer environment, with weaker conditions at the beginning of the year vs the company’s expectations; a warmer season didn’t help either.
While some companies did start to see an improvement in late 1Q25-early 2Q25, a meaningful trend across all covered companies is not identified.
Companies in the meantime are focusing on cost efficiencies and battling competitive pressures, as pricing —and traffic for retailers— is the main driver yet limited by consumers’ elasticity.


Actinver Research - Consumer Post 1Q25 Update

Mexico

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (Femsa) bottles beverages. The Company bottles and distributes branded beverages in parts of North, Central and South America. In some countries Femsa also markets water, beer, and other products.

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Coca-Cola Femsa Sab De Cv (KOFL MM)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Actinver Research - Consumer Post 3Q25 Update

We highlight Becle given its solid margin performance, ahead of our previous upbeat estimates, even after accounting for non-recurring items

Actinver

Actinver Research - Retail Update: ANTAD August SSS and Feedback from Store Tour

ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%,...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Consumer Post 2Q25 Update

On average, our covered Consumer companies grew top line by 8% YoY (vs. 7% forecasted), and EBITDA by 5% (vs. our 3% estimate).

Actinver

Actinver Research - Consumer Post 1Q25 Update

Soft consumer environment, with weaker conditions at the beginning of the year vs the company’s expectations; a warmer season didn’t help either.

Actinver

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