Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.</li>
<li>We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
<li>Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.</li>
</ul>


Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.
We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.
Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.


Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/redox-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39847:1" rel="noopener">Redox (RDX AU)</a>, a chemical and ingredients distributor, raised US$270m in its IPO in Jun 2023. Some of its founding family shareholders will be released from their IPO lockup soon.</li>
<li>Redox primarily serves the ANZ market, and it has a presence in Malaysia and the US. It is one of the largest chemicals and ingredients distributors in Australia.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Redox (RDX AU), a chemical and ingredients distributor, raised US$270m in its IPO in Jun 2023. Some of its founding family shareholders will be released from their IPO lockup soon.
Redox primarily serves the ANZ market, and it has a presence in Malaysia and the US. It is one of the largest chemicals and ingredients distributors in Australia.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


Redox IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Limited Liquidity Might Provide a Good Excuse to Sell

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>To an Australian individual investor, franking credits simply recognise tax already paid by a company on their earnings. These credits may reduce tax you would otherwise pay on dividend income.</li>
<li>This dividend imputation system prevents double taxation and essentially treats company tax paid as a prepayment of shareholder tax.</li>
<li>The system makes a lot of sense. It's a curious thing so few countries have adopted a similar corporate tax structure.</li>
</ul>


To an Australian individual investor, franking credits simply recognise tax already paid by a company on their earnings. These credits may reduce tax you would otherwise pay on dividend income.
This dividend imputation system prevents double taxation and essentially treats company tax paid as a prepayment of shareholder tax.
The system makes a lot of sense. It's a curious thing so few countries have adopted a similar corporate tax structure.


APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cuscal-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40209:1" rel="noopener">Cuscal Limited (1229Z AU)</a> is looking to raise US$234m in its upcoming Australia IPO.</li>
<li>Cuscal is an authorized deposit-taking institution (ADI) in Australia that primarily provides financial infrastructure and payment services in Australia.</li>
<li>In our previous note we looked at the company’s past performance, in this note we will undertake a peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Cuscal Limited (1229Z AU) is looking to raise US$234m in its upcoming Australia IPO.
Cuscal is an authorized deposit-taking institution (ADI) in Australia that primarily provides financial infrastructure and payment services in Australia.
In our previous note we looked at the company’s past performance, in this note we will undertake a peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.


Cuscal IPO - Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

Australia

Coles Group Limited owns and operates a chain of supermarkets and department stores. The Company offers apparels, liquor, office supplies, groceries, and household products. Coles Group serves customers throughout Australia and New Zealand.

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Coles Group (COL AU)

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Redox IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Limited Liquidity Might Provide a Good Excuse to Sell

Redox (RDX AU), a chemical and ingredients distributor, raised US$270m in its IPO in Jun 2023. Some of its founding family shareholders will be...

Sumeet Singh

Let's Talk Aussie Franking Credits

Dividend imputation allows tax credits to be passed to shareholders from companies for corporate tax paid. It prevents double taxation and treats...

David Blennerhassett

Cuscal IPO - Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

Cuscal Limited (1229Z AU) is looking to raise US$234m in its upcoming Australia IPO. In this note we will undertake a peer comparison and share our...

Clarence Chu

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