Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>HFD for US small banks shows USD2.6bn new CRE loans in week vs USD3.4bn new total loans</li>
<li>US small banks have CRE loans at 2.9x capital vs 2.5x in recent periods and less provisions</li>
<li>Large term deposits are up from 8.5% to 14.2% of loans from trough to most recent week </li>
</ul>


HFD for US small banks shows USD2.6bn new CRE loans in week vs USD3.4bn new total loans
US small banks have CRE loans at 2.9x capital vs 2.5x in recent periods and less provisions
Large term deposits are up from 8.5% to 14.2% of loans from trough to most recent week 


US Small Banks - New HFD Shows 76% of New Loans Are CRE in Recent Week | CRE Loans at 2.9x Capital

<ul>
<li>1Q23 earnings were 130% of consensus annualized, 2Q23 is 104% consensus annualized</li>
<li>USB saw its quarterly income/FY23 consensus move from 27% to 21% from 1Q23 to 2Q23</li>
<li>COLB, WAL are at lowest FY23 consensus achievement rates: 21% and 41% during 1H23</li>
</ul>


1Q23 earnings were 130% of consensus annualized, 2Q23 is 104% consensus annualized
USB saw its quarterly income/FY23 consensus move from 27% to 21% from 1Q23 to 2Q23
COLB, WAL are at lowest FY23 consensus achievement rates: 21% and 41% during 1H23


US Banks - Qtly Profit Falls As % Of FY23 Consensus, Some More Than Others: USB, PB, COL, WAL, AEX

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Bank stocks are breaking out this week from base patterns, and are among one of the timeliest Groups in which to add exposure. The size of these patterns—about 9 months in duration, and visible in the KBE and KRE ETFs —support further upside. Increase exposure.  In this report we highlight actionable bank charts. (This is not an all-encompassing list.)

Bank stocks are breaking out this week from base patterns, and are among one of the timeliest Groups in which to add exposure. The size of these patterns—about 9 months in duration, and visible in the KBE and KRE ETFs —support further upside. Increase exposure.  In this report we highlight actionable bank charts. (This is not an all-encompassing list.)

Bank Industry Standards applies standard analytics & forecasts to 800+ banks, Bank Industry Standards

Steve Lander

Bank Industry Standards applies standard analytics & forecasts to 800+ banks

Bank Industry Standards

Equity Bottom-Up

Columbia Banking System / Equity Bottom-Up

The Federal Reserve collects &amp; publishes enterprise-level data for 800+ US banks, every quarter. It has done so for over 30 years. This data has identical structure, bank to bank &amp; over Time.Bank Industry Standards transforms this data to forecasts, factor sensitivities &amp; stress tests. All while preserving the uniformity of the data structure. Tools enable investors to profit from bank (price) inefficiency.This series canvasses 100 US banks in 100 days ($1.6tn of US bank market cap). Each bank in this series has identical analysis, raw and useful for surveillance. The entire series can be purchased, at once, by subscribing to the full-insight series.The full insight features 2.4m forecasts for earnings generated by auto-oscillation of forecast parameters. Spectra at [1] below are probability bands for forecasts made, in +/- 5% from Consensus (red lines). Each spectra is defined by the period over which the average applies for Loanloss provision / Loans (LLP/L).

The Federal Reserve collects &amp; publishes enterprise-level data for 800+ US banks, every quarter. It has done so for over 30 years. This data has identical structure, bank to bank &amp; over Time.Bank Industry Standards transforms this data to forecasts, factor sensitivities &amp; stress tests. All while preserving the uniformity of the data structure. Tools enable investors to profit from bank (price) inefficiency.This series canvasses 100 US banks in 100 days ($1.6tn of US bank market cap). Each bank in this series has identical analysis, raw and useful for surveillance. The entire series can be purchased, at once, by subscribing to the full-insight series.The full insight features 2.4m forecasts for earnings generated by auto-oscillation of forecast parameters. Spectra at [1] below are probability bands for forecasts made, in +/- 5% from Consensus (red lines). Each spectra is defined by the period over which the average applies for Loanloss provision / Loans (LLP/L).

This could go either way : Up with loan growth, or down with Securities.

United States

Columbia Banking System, Inc. is the holding company for Columbia Bank, a full service commercial bank.  The Bank serves small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and other individuals through office in the Tacoma metropolitan area and contiguous parts of the Puget Sound region of Washington, as well as the Longview and Woodland communities in southwestern Washington.

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Columbia Banking System (COLB US)

US Small Banks - New HFD Shows 76% of New Loans Are CRE in Recent Week | CRE Loans at 2.9x Capital

New HFD shows new CRE loans at 76% of total new loans, for small US banks. Their CRE loans/capital is rising and LLR/CRE loans is low, falling. Off...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Qtly Profit Falls As % Of FY23 Consensus, Some More Than Others: USB, PB, COL, WAL, AEX

US bank profit downgrades can be big, looking at FY23 consensus earnings achievement rates in 1Q23, 2Q23. Many banks are at less than 50% of FY23...

Daniel Tabbush

U. S. Banks Are Breaking Out -- Buy

Bank stocks are breaking out this week from base patterns, and are among one of the timeliest Groups in which to add exposure. The size of these...

Vermilion Research

This could go either way : Up with loan growth, or down with Securities.

The Federal Reserve collects & publishes enterprise-level data for 800+ US banks, every quarter. It has done so for over 30 years. This data...

Steve Lander

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