Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BAC shows strong growth of its core income in the period YoY, almost accounting for 100% of its full net profit delta YoY</li>
<li>The bank is showing greater strength in corporate lending YoY and QoQ, and this can be more powerful of a statement for economic health</li>
<li>NCO figures are coming down in corporate lending, while residential mortgages is seeing strong new originations - both are a good view on US economy</li>
</ul>


BAC shows strong growth of its core income in the period YoY, almost accounting for 100% of its full net profit delta YoY
The bank is showing greater strength in corporate lending YoY and QoQ, and this can be more powerful of a statement for economic health
NCO figures are coming down in corporate lending, while residential mortgages is seeing strong new originations - both are a good view on US economy


BAC - Almost All of Net Profit Delta YoY Is Core Income, with Strong Corporate Lending in QoQ

<ul>
<li>The 4Q24 results from JPM are strong with net profit up 50% YoY and 9% QoQ</li>
<li>The bank shows almost no deposit growth YoY but there is reasonable loan growth</li>
<li>While non-accrual loans are rising, JPM holds substantially and rising LLR for these</li>
</ul>


The 4Q24 results from JPM are strong with net profit up 50% YoY and 9% QoQ
The bank shows almost no deposit growth YoY but there is reasonable loan growth
While non-accrual loans are rising, JPM holds substantially and rising LLR for these


JPM - 4Q24 Results Show Continued Strength in Core Income, Rising Non-Accruals Well Covered by LLR

<ul>
<li>There are few large US banks where quarterly net interest income is more than 1.6x higher now on average than in late FY19 and early FY20</li>
<li>JPM demonstrates some of the best asset-liability management (ALM) of any major bank in the US</li>
<li>Other risks and parts of the business appear to be very well managed too, including credit risk and operating costs</li>
</ul>


There are few large US banks where quarterly net interest income is more than 1.6x higher now on average than in late FY19 and early FY20
JPM demonstrates some of the best asset-liability management (ALM) of any major bank in the US
Other risks and parts of the business appear to be very well managed too, including credit risk and operating costs


JPM - Exceptional Core Income Strength, ALM Is Excellent, HFD for US Banks Supports Outlook

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-ozk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28708:1" rel="noopener">Bank OZK (OZK US)</a> has more CRE loans to total loans of any US bank at 72% in 3Q24</li>
<li>Risks of CRE loans are real now and historically, they have high loss rates, in bad times</li>
<li>The bank is seeing a surge in NPAs , but its credit costs are lagging - make up in 4Q24?</li>
</ul>



Bank OZK (OZK US) has more CRE loans to total loans of any US bank at 72% in 3Q24
Risks of CRE loans are real now and historically, they have high loss rates, in bad times
The bank is seeing a surge in NPAs , but its credit costs are lagging - make up in 4Q24?


Bank OZK - Most CRE Loans/Total Loans of Any US Bank & Dramatically Worsening Credit Metrics

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Apollo Global Management  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a>, 2 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 6 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-global-management-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28770:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Global</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/workday-inc-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5660:1" rel="noopener">Workday</a> will have large flows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> trackers while<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener"> AppLovin</a> misses out. The SPX adds will have large inflows from the Select Sector index trackers too.</li>
<li>The outright adds are up a lot in the after-hours and there could be further upside over the next couple of weeks as positioning ramps up.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX, 2 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 6 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the December rebalance.

Apollo Global and Workday will have large flows from S&amp;P 500 INDEX trackers while AppLovin misses out. The SPX adds will have large inflows from the Select Sector index trackers too.
The outright adds are up a lot in the after-hours and there could be further upside over the next couple of weeks as positioning ramps up.


S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Apollo Global, Workday Added to SPX; AppLovin Misses Out

United States

Comerica Incorporated is the holding company for business, individual, and investment banks with operations in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.  The Company's subsidiaries provide services such as corporate banking, international finance, treasury management, community banking, private banking, small business and individual lending, investment services, and institutional trust.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Comerica Inc (CMA US)

BAC - Almost All of Net Profit Delta YoY Is Core Income, with Strong Corporate Lending in QoQ

BAC is showing most all of its net profit delta in the past year coming from core income, which is positive. Its corporate lending appears strong,...

Daniel Tabbush

JPM - 4Q24 Results Show Continued Strength in Core Income, Rising Non-Accruals Well Covered by LLR

The 4Q24 results from JPM are just out, with very strong growth in net profit, good cost controls and strong ALM still, with LDR expansion. Rising...

Daniel Tabbush

JPM - Exceptional Core Income Strength, ALM Is Excellent, HFD for US Banks Supports Outlook

JPM shows some of the best rise of quarterly net interest income in US banking, and we believe this is very much due strong ALM, which is core to...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank OZK - Most CRE Loans/Total Loans of Any US Bank & Dramatically Worsening Credit Metrics

Commercial real estate (CRE) loans are risky in the US normally and especially now. Bank OZK is most exposed, with dramatic worsening of credit...

Daniel Tabbush

S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Apollo Global, Workday Added to SPX; AppLovin Misses Out

There are 2 changes for SnP500, 2 for SnP400 and 6 for SnP600. The outright adds are up big in the after-hours market. There will be more flows for...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)