Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and ten prominent Australian stocks.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Implied volatility across Australia’s major banks remains rich ahead of earnings and the RBA decision.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.</li>
</ul>



Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and ten prominent Australian stocks.

Highlights: Implied volatility across Australia’s major banks remains rich ahead of earnings and the RBA decision.

Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.


CBA, ANZ, Westpac, NAB: Volatility Runs High Ahead of Imminent Catalysts

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 2nd (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD50.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers, Brambles, Suncorp.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 2nd (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD50.5bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers, Brambles, Suncorp.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 2nd): Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers, Brambles, Suncorp

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Australia in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Aristocrat Leisure.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Australia in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Aristocrat Leisure.


MS-Australia Index Earning Revision (Sep): Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 25th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 25th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.0bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 25th): Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 29 September 2026, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST. 
</li>
<li>Inflation remains well above the RBA’s target band. Markets expect a hike at this meeting and further increases through mid-2027.</li>
<li>Australian equities have historically shown little unusual movement after anticipated hikes, while banks have tended to underperform the broader market.</li>
</ul>


The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 29 September 2026, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST. 

Inflation remains well above the RBA’s target band. Markets expect a hike at this meeting and further increases through mid-2027.
Australian equities have historically shown little unusual movement after anticipated hikes, while banks have tended to underperform the broader market.


RBA Decision on 29 September: History Suggests Bank Underperformance

Australia

Commonwealth Bank of Australia provides banking, life insurance, and related services for individuals, small businesses and medium sized commercial enterprises. The Bank provides corporate and general banking, international financing, institutional banking and stock broking and funds management such as superannuation product.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)

CBA, ANZ, Westpac, NAB: Volatility Runs High Ahead of Imminent Catalysts

Implied volatility analysis reveals rich options trading in Australian banks, offering insights for traders and investors.

Gaudenz Schneider

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 2nd): Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers, Brambles, Suncorp

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MS-Australia Index Earning Revision (Sep): Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance

We analyzed MS-Australia's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Aristocrat...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 25th): Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

RBA Decision on 29 September: History Suggests Bank Underperformance

Markets expect the RBA to raise rates on 29 September. Past anticipated hikes have left the broader market little changed, while banks have tended...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CBA, ANZ, Westpac, NAB: Volatility Runs High Ahead of Imminent Catalysts

​Implied volatility analysis reveals rich options trading in Australian banks, offering insights for traders and investors.

Gaudenz Schneider

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 2nd): Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers, Brambles, Suncorp

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MS-Australia Index Earning Revision (Sep): Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance

We analyzed MS-Australia's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Aristocrat...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 25th): Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

RBA Decision on 29 September: History Suggests Bank Underperformance

Markets expect the RBA to raise rates on 29 September. Past anticipated hikes have left the broader market little changed, while banks have tended...

Gaudenz Schneider

Implied volatility analysis reveals rich options trading in Australian banks, offering insights for traders and investors.