Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation LG Energy Solution is implied market cap of 75 trillion won or target price of 319,089 won, representing 25% below current share price.</li>
<li>Currently, LGES is trading at a premium valuation multiple on a EV/EBITDA (2023E) versus CATL. We believe LGES should trade at a discount to CATL in the next 6-12 months. </li>
<li>LGES's 6 months lock-up ends on 27 July and there are 4.3% of outstanding shares that can be sold which is likely to put negative pressure on share price.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation LG Energy Solution is implied market cap of 75 trillion won or target price of 319,089 won, representing 25% below current share price.
Currently, LGES is trading at a premium valuation multiple on a EV/EBITDA (2023E) versus CATL. We believe LGES should trade at a discount to CATL in the next 6-12 months. 
LGES's 6 months lock-up ends on 27 July and there are 4.3% of outstanding shares that can be sold which is likely to put negative pressure on share price.


LG Energy Solution: End of 6 Months Lock-Up Period & Valuation Sensitivity Analysis

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Consumer staple, industrials, and material sector led the inflow of USD 5.7bn last week.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Moutai, Yili, China Tourism, Longi, Beijing Orient Yuhong.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Consumer staple, industrials, and material sector led the inflow of USD 5.7bn last week.
We highlight inflows into Moutai, Yili, China Tourism, Longi, Beijing Orient Yuhong.


Northbound Flows: $5.7bn Inflows, Biggest Since Dec

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

LONGi Green Energy Technology / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Hong Kong Stock-Shanghai and Shenzhen Northbound Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.</li>
<li>Overall, net inflow was ~US$6.5bn, split between Shanghai (+US$5.5bn) and Shenzhen (+US$1.0bn).</li>
<li>The largest inflows were into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longi-green-energy-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12703:1" rel="noopener">LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kweichow-moutai-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1553:1" rel="noopener">Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)</a>. The largest outflows were in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-techn-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (300750 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-holdings-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27590:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Holdings (601919 CH)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Hong Kong Stock-Shanghai and Shenzhen Northbound Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.
Overall, net inflow was ~US$6.5bn, split between Shanghai (+US$5.5bn) and Shenzhen (+US$1.0bn).
The largest inflows were into LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012 CH) and Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH). The largest outflows were in CATL (300750 CH) and Cosco Shipping Holdings (601919 CH).


Shanghai/​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (9 June 2022)

<ul>
<li>Fund manager <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saratoga-investama-sedaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13714:1" rel="noopener">Saratoga Investama Sedaya (SRTG IJ)</a> is up 107% yoy, buoyed by its investment holdings in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-copper-gold-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28447:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6061:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ)</a>.</li>
<li>The discount to NAV is ~31% against a one-year average of 37%.</li>
<li>Potential large divestments, such as its holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tower-bersama-infrastructure" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3537:1" rel="noopener">Tower Bersama Infrastructure (TBIG IJ)</a>, could causer investors to substantially narrow the NAV discount. </li>
</ul>


Fund manager Saratoga Investama Sedaya (SRTG IJ) is up 107% yoy, buoyed by its investment holdings in Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ) and Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ).
The discount to NAV is ~31% against a one-year average of 37%.
Potential large divestments, such as its holding in Tower Bersama Infrastructure (TBIG IJ), could causer investors to substantially narrow the NAV discount. 


Unlocking Saratoga Investama (SRTG IJ)'s Holdco

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>The past week recorded inflows of USD 3.8bn, the largest since Feb. Such inflows were led by consumer staples, industrials and materials.</li>
<li>We highlight stocks including Moutai, Wuliangye, CMB, China Tourism Duty Free, and CATL.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
The past week recorded inflows of USD 3.8bn, the largest since Feb. Such inflows were led by consumer staples, industrials and materials.
We highlight stocks including Moutai, Wuliangye, CMB, China Tourism Duty Free, and CATL.


Northbound Flows: Biggest Inflow Since Feb

Hong Kong

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited. operates as a battery products manufacturing company. The Company produces and sells power battery materials, energy storage batteries energy storage battery cells, systems, and other products. Contemporary Amperex Technology also provides batteries recycling services.

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK)

Price Gauge
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Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK)

LG Energy Solution: End of 6 Months Lock-Up Period & Valuation Sensitivity Analysis

Our base case valuation LG Energy Solution is implied market cap of 75 trillion won or target price of 319,089 won, representing 25% below current...

Douglas Kim

Northbound Flows: $5.7bn Inflows, Biggest Since Dec

We highlight northbound Shanghai Shenzhen Connect inflows into Moutai, Yili, China Tourism, Longi, Beijing Orient Yuhong.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shanghai/Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (9 June 2022)

Overall, net inflow was ~US$6.5bn, and was roughly split between Shanghai Northbound (+US$5.5bn) and Shenzhen Northbound (+US$1.0bn).

David Blennerhassett

Unlocking Saratoga Investama (SRTG IJ)'s Holdco

I'd be inclined to buy Saratoga outright. Or hedge against index futures. I think Tower Bersama is a possible privatisation play.

David Blennerhassett

Northbound Flows: Biggest Inflow Since Feb

We highlight northbound Shanghai Shenzhen connect net inflows of USD 3.8bn and stocks including Moutai, Wuliangye, CMB, China Tourism Duty Free,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

LG Energy Solution: End of 6 Months Lock-Up Period & Valuation Sensitivity Analysis

Our base case valuation LG Energy Solution is implied market cap of 75 trillion won or target price of 319,089 won, representing 25% below current...

Douglas Kim

Northbound Flows: $5.7bn Inflows, Biggest Since Dec

We highlight northbound Shanghai Shenzhen Connect inflows into Moutai, Yili, China Tourism, Longi, Beijing Orient Yuhong.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shanghai/​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (9 June 2022)

Overall, net inflow was ~US$6.5bn, and was roughly split between Shanghai Northbound (+US$5.5bn) and Shenzhen Northbound (+US$1.0bn).

David Blennerhassett

Unlocking Saratoga Investama (SRTG IJ)'s Holdco

I'd be inclined to buy Saratoga outright. Or hedge against index futures. I think Tower Bersama is a possible privatisation play.

David Blennerhassett

Northbound Flows: Biggest Inflow Since Feb

We highlight northbound Shanghai Shenzhen connect net inflows of USD 3.8bn and stocks including Moutai, Wuliangye, CMB, China Tourism Duty Free,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shanghai/Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (9 June 2022)