External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

Copa Holdings Sa Class A / Equity Bottom-Up

Key points<ul><li>Copa Airlines consistently pays dividends, setting it apart from other airlines.</li><li>The airline's competitive advantage lies in its strategic location in Panama City and its hub-and-spoke model, facilitating efficient connections between North and South America.</li><li>Despite the challenges of the airline industry, Copa has outperformed its competitors in generating value and is projected to have significant upside potential in both the short and long term.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Key pointsCopa Airlines consistently pays dividends, setting it apart from other airlines.The airline's competitive advantage lies in its strategic location in Panama City and its hub-and-spoke model, facilitating efficient connections between North and South America.Despite the challenges of the airline industry, Copa has outperformed its competitors in generating value and is projected to have significant upside potential in both the short and long term.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Copa Holdings Sa (CPA) - Thursday, Nov 16, 2023

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

<ul>
<li>Copa’s 2023 EBITDAR of $1,117m was achieved while growing unit revenues, while capacity expanded 13% with a 17% unit fuel cost tailwind. Not an easy feat.</li>
<li>In 2024, we expect only 5% EBITDAR growth on 10% capacity growth as unit revenues decline (following the emergence of this theme in 2H23) and EBITDAR-level unit costs grow.</li>
<li>We model Copa's EBITDAR/ASM premium to 2019 down to a still-impressive 35% in 2024 but new route selection and efficiency will need to be strong to sustain these economics.</li>
</ul>


Copa’s 2023 EBITDAR of $1,117m was achieved while growing unit revenues, while capacity expanded 13% with a 17% unit fuel cost tailwind. Not an easy feat.
In 2024, we expect only 5% EBITDAR growth on 10% capacity growth as unit revenues decline (following the emergence of this theme in 2H23) and EBITDAR-level unit costs grow.
We model Copa's EBITDAR/ASM premium to 2019 down to a still-impressive 35% in 2024 but new route selection and efficiency will need to be strong to sustain these economics.


Copa Holdings - A Slow-Growth Year in 2024 – Impressive Gain on Pre-Pandemic Economics Sustainable?

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Alaska Air Flight 1282 had an in-flight blowout of its mid-aft door and interior sidewall; the aircraft returned and landed safely, and there were no injuries or fatalities  </li>
<li>The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has ordered a temporary grounding of the affected aircraft model, and we think other countries will follow suit soon   </li>
<li>These stocks will likely be under shorts attack on Monday: Boeing (BA US), Alaska Air (ALK US), Ryanair (RYA ID) and United Airlines (UAL US)</li>
</ul>


Alaska Air Flight 1282 had an in-flight blowout of its mid-aft door and interior sidewall; the aircraft returned and landed safely, and there were no injuries or fatalities  
The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has ordered a temporary grounding of the affected aircraft model, and we think other countries will follow suit soon   
These stocks will likely be under shorts attack on Monday: Boeing (BA US), Alaska Air (ALK US), Ryanair (RYA ID) and United Airlines (UAL US)


Boeing 737 MAX 9 and MAX-8200 Grounded: Implications And Opportunities

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed last week how consolidation was likely, so far that has played out with the SPX back testing the 4300-4325 area which we anticipated would cap upside for 2023.</li>
<li>We continue to watch short-term support at 4300, and we cannot be bearish if the S&amp;P 500 is above 4300.</li>
<li>The Russell 2000 (IWM) is back to test support at $180; we would expect to see this hold as support, but a failure to hold would mean a trip to $170
</li>
</ul>


We discussed last week how consolidation was likely, so far that has played out with the SPX back testing the 4300-4325 area which we anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
We continue to watch short-term support at 4300, and we cannot be bearish if the S&amp;P 500 is above 4300.
The Russell 2000 (IWM) is back to test support at $180; we would expect to see this hold as support, but a failure to hold would mean a trip to $170



Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Support; Breadth Remains Constructive; Construction/Engineering Buys

NASDAQ Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since January 2023 we've anticipated for 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.</li>
<li>In our 5/2/23 Compass we discussed how the Nasdaq Composite was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 is possible.</li>
<li>The Nasdaq Composite hit 13,154 Tuesday as Technology (XLK), and to a lesser extent Communications (XLC), are seemingly in a blowoff stage, while all other Sectors are neutral to bearish.</li>
</ul>


Since January 2023 we've anticipated for 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.
In our 5/2/23 Compass we discussed how the Nasdaq Composite was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 is possible.
The Nasdaq Composite hit 13,154 Tuesday as Technology (XLK), and to a lesser extent Communications (XLC), are seemingly in a blowoff stage, while all other Sectors are neutral to bearish.


Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight, Staples & Utilities to Underweight

Panama

Copa Holdings SA provides international airline passenger and cargo service. The Company provides scheduled flights to countries in North, Central and South America and the Caribbean. The Company also has codeshare arrangements with Continental Airlines.

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Copa Holdings SA (CPAN MM)

Copa Holdings Sa (CPA) - Thursday, Nov 16, 2023

The airline's competitive advantage lies in its strategic location in Panama City and its hub-and-spoke model, facilitating efficient connections...

Value Investors Club

Copa Holdings - A Slow-Growth Year in 2024 – Impressive Gain on Pre-Pandemic Economics Sustainable?

Illustration of how difficult it will be for Copa to protect gross profit and EBITDAR per ASM at elevated levels relative to pre-pandemic.

Neil Glynn

Boeing 737 MAX 9 and MAX-8200 Grounded: Implications And Opportunities

Flight 1282 experienced a mid-air blowout but landed safely. The FAA has grounded the Boeing 737 MAX 9, potentially impacting stocks of Boeing,...

Mohshin Aziz

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Support; Breadth Remains Constructive; Construction/Engineering Buys

Russell 2000 $IWM Testing $180 Support; $RTY $SPX Breadth Remains Constructive; Highlighting buy ideas in Services (Research/Consulting &...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight, Staples & Utilities to Underweight

5/2/23 we discussed how $Nasdaq Comp was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 was possible. It hit 13,154 Tuesday as...

Vermilion Research

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Copa Holdings Sa (CPA) - Thursday, Nov 16, 2023

The airline's competitive advantage lies in its strategic location in Panama City and its hub-and-spoke model, facilitating efficient connections...

Value Investors Club

Copa Holdings - A Slow-Growth Year in 2024 – Impressive Gain on Pre-Pandemic Economics Sustainable?

Illustration of how difficult it will be for Copa to protect gross profit and EBITDAR per ASM at elevated levels relative to pre-pandemic.

Neil Glynn

Boeing 737 MAX 9 and MAX-8200 Grounded: Implications And Opportunities

​Flight 1282 experienced a mid-air blowout but landed safely. The FAA has grounded the Boeing 737 MAX 9, potentially impacting stocks of Boeing,...

Mohshin Aziz

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Support; Breadth Remains Constructive; Construction/Engineering Buys

Russell 2000 $IWM Testing $180 Support; $RTY $SPX Breadth Remains Constructive; Highlighting buy ideas in Services (Research/Consulting &...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight, Staples & Utilities to Underweight

5/2/23 we discussed how $Nasdaq Comp was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 was possible. It hit 13,154 Tuesday as...

Vermilion Research

Flight 1282 experienced a mid-air blowout but landed safely. The FAA has grounded the Boeing 737 MAX 9, potentially impacting stocks of Boeing,...