Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>The latest BofA survey showed that the consensus trade continues to be “long gold” with 58% of participants surveyed, followed by only 22% “long mag 7”.</li><li>According to the analysis, gold is now more overvalued than ever before (since data was recorded in 2008). At the same time, positioning in the US dollar fell to a 19-year low.</li><li>The positioning in gold is even that extreme that it pulled the entire commodity basket up with it - relative to equities.</li></ul>

The latest BofA survey showed that the consensus trade continues to be “long gold” with 58% of participants surveyed, followed by only 22% “long mag 7”.According to the analysis, gold is now more overvalued than ever before (since data was recorded in 2008). At the same time, positioning in the US dollar fell to a 19-year low.The positioning in gold is even that extreme that it pulled the entire commodity basket up with it - relative to equities.

<ul><li><strong>The FAO Food Price Index </strong>rose to 128.3 points in April 2025, up 1.2 points from March.</li><li>Increases in the cereal, dairy and meat price indices outweighed decreases in those of sugar and vegetable oils.</li><li>Overall, the FFPI was 9.0 points (7.6%) higher than its level a year ago but remained 31.9 points (19.9%) below its peak reached in March 2022.</li></ul>

The FAO Food Price Index rose to 128.3 points in April 2025, up 1.2 points from March.Increases in the cereal, dairy and meat price indices outweighed decreases in those of sugar and vegetable oils.Overall, the FFPI was 9.0 points (7.6%) higher than its level a year ago but remained 31.9 points (19.9%) below its peak reached in March 2022.

Dairy and Food Oil Prices Continue to Push Food Prices Higher

<ul><li>This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched - which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always become more stretched.</li><li>Note: We’re long the June contract of Gold since mid of March</li><li>Another interesting thought regarding gold demand going forward: if AI models really become more efficient and less data center usage is needed, demand for gold in tech could be affected as well.</li></ul>

This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched - which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always become more stretched.Note: We’re long the June contract of Gold since mid of MarchAnother interesting thought regarding gold demand going forward: if AI models really become more efficient and less data center usage is needed, demand for gold in tech could be affected as well.

<ul><li>President Trump triggered turmoil in the stock and bond markets, sent shockwaves through the global economy, and claimed the U.S. would eliminate the national debt using trillions supposedly generated from his tariffs.</li><li>Just earlier this week, he declared he wouldn’t make a zero-tariff deal with the EU — and now, without any real change in circumstances, he’s suddenly starting to back down.</li><li>Trump dropped his country-specific tariffs down to a universal 10% rate for all trade partners except China on Wednesday - for a limited time period of 90 days - presumably to have more time to make deals with each country.</li></ul>

President Trump triggered turmoil in the stock and bond markets, sent shockwaves through the global economy, and claimed the U.S. would eliminate the national debt using trillions supposedly generated from his tariffs.Just earlier this week, he declared he wouldn’t make a zero-tariff deal with the EU — and now, without any real change in circumstances, he’s suddenly starting to back down.Trump dropped his country-specific tariffs down to a universal 10% rate for all trade partners except China on Wednesday - for a limited time period of 90 days - presumably to have more time to make deals with each country.

How Commodities React To Trumps New Global Trade Plans

<ul><li>*YTD our absolute return strategy is up 7,5% Commodities Crash after Trump’s Tariff Nightmare In his mission to re-shore critical industries, raise revenue for the U.S. and narrow the deficit, Trump rolled out aggressive tariffs on virtually all countries (except Russia, Cuba and North Korea).</li><li>The new 10% tariff baseline is roughly triple the average US tariff rate before Trump reclaimed power in January and the calculation behind each tariff rates seems insane.</li><li>“We will charge them approximately half of what they are and have been charging us,” Trump said of the reciprocal tariffs.</li></ul>

*YTD our absolute return strategy is up 7,5% Commodities Crash after Trump’s Tariff Nightmare In his mission to re-shore critical industries, raise revenue for the U.S. and narrow the deficit, Trump rolled out aggressive tariffs on virtually all countries (except Russia, Cuba and North Korea).The new 10% tariff baseline is roughly triple the average US tariff rate before Trump reclaimed power in January and the calculation behind each tariff rates seems insane.“We will charge them approximately half of what they are and have been charging us,” Trump said of the reciprocal tariffs.

Commodities Crash after Trump’s Tariff Nightmare

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

Gold About To Lose Its Shine?

The latest BofA survey showed that the consensus trade continues to be “long gold” with 58% of participants surveyed, followed by only 22% “long...

The Commodity Report

Dairy and Food Oil Prices Continue to Push Food Prices Higher

Overall, the FFPI was 9.0 points (7.6%) higher than its level a year ago but remained 31.9 points (19.9%) below its peak reached in March 2022.

The Commodity Report

Sentiment Signal in Gold

This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched - which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always...

The Commodity Report

How Commodities React To Trumps New Global Trade Plans

Just earlier this week, he declared he wouldn’t make a zero-tariff deal with the EU — and now, without any real change in circumstances, he’s...

The Commodity Report

Commodities Crash after Trump’s Tariff Nightmare

The new 10% tariff baseline is roughly triple the average US tariff rate before Trump reclaimed power in January and the calculation behind each...

The Commodity Report

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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