Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Commodities

<ul><li>We review some charts, starting with commodities that are precariously close to signalling a breakdown.</li><li>The weakness became pronounced after China's PPI, CPI, and the disappointing Aggregate Finance data (this needs a separate section).  </li><li>If China's recovery continues to be disappointing, then the deflation of exports and a long position on commodities will be a big problem for the rest of the world.</li></ul>

We review some charts, starting with commodities that are precariously close to signalling a breakdown.The weakness became pronounced after China's PPI, CPI, and the disappointing Aggregate Finance data (this needs a separate section).  If China's recovery continues to be disappointing, then the deflation of exports and a long position on commodities will be a big problem for the rest of the world.

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul><li>The wobbly first four months of the year are over, and it has become easier to detect clear trends in the market.</li><li>As you can see, our YTD performance has clearly picked up, and we’re confident that we'll continue to clearly outperform the CRB Commodity Index.</li><li>Consultancy Datagro announced on Thursday that Brazil's center-south region is anticipated to have a sugar output of 38.3 million tonnes in the current season, which began in April.</li></ul>

The wobbly first four months of the year are over, and it has become easier to detect clear trends in the market.As you can see, our YTD performance has clearly picked up, and we’re confident that we'll continue to clearly outperform the CRB Commodity Index.Consultancy Datagro announced on Thursday that Brazil's center-south region is anticipated to have a sugar output of 38.3 million tonnes in the current season, which began in April.

While Commodities sold off - we made profits // Some relief on the sugar front

<ul><li>In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report the World Bank said last week that global commodity prices are expected to decline this year at the fastest pace</li><li>The agency expects prices to fall 21% compared to last year during 2023.</li><li>For 2024 the World Bank expects prices to remain stable. </li></ul>

In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report the World Bank said last week that global commodity prices are expected to decline this year at the fastest paceThe agency expects prices to fall 21% compared to last year during 2023.For 2024 the World Bank expects prices to remain stable. 

Recession fears scare commodities again & World Banks forecasts major drop

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Copper inventory is on the floor and Production is lower than usual</li>
<li>China's rebound is not your ordinary one and services seem to drive the economy </li>
<li>Pricing and probability slowly turning and suspect this may be a trend to follow</li>
</ul>


Copper inventory is on the floor and Production is lower than usual
China's rebound is not your ordinary one and services seem to drive the economy 
Pricing and probability slowly turning and suspect this may be a trend to follow


<ul><li>Don’t get fooled by the tight inventory narrative While many copper bulls continue to write about the low copper inventories I would like to inform you once again that there is simply no correlation between copper inventories and the price of the industrial metal.</li><li>If you want to be precise - you could even make the case that excessive lows in the LME copper inventory data actually mark cyclical highs in the price of the brownish metal.</li><li>US Leading Economic Index's recession signal deepens in March, Conference Board reports: “The US LEI fell to its lowest level since November of 2020, consistent with worsening economic conditions ahead,” says CB's senior manager for business cycle indicators.</li></ul>

Don’t get fooled by the tight inventory narrative While many copper bulls continue to write about the low copper inventories I would like to inform you once again that there is simply no correlation between copper inventories and the price of the industrial metal.If you want to be precise - you could even make the case that excessive lows in the LME copper inventory data actually mark cyclical highs in the price of the brownish metal.US Leading Economic Index's recession signal deepens in March, Conference Board reports: “The US LEI fell to its lowest level since November of 2020, consistent with worsening economic conditions ahead,” says CB's senior manager for business cycle indicators.

Don’t Get Fooled by the Tight Inventory Narrative - Economic Situation Continues to Worsen

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

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As you can see, our YTD performance has clearly picked up, and we’re confident that we'll continue to clearly outperform the CRB Commodity Index.

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If you want to be precise - you could even make the case that excessive lows in the LME copper inventory data actually mark cyclical highs in the...

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