European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

 ACCIONA Energias Renovabl / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>EQT Infrastructure and Norges Bank Investment Management have reportedly formed a consortium seeking 100% of ANE, while Ardian remains in the process.</li>
<li>Selected bidders are meeting management and are expected to confirm prices by mid-October. Acciona reportedly aims to reach an agreement by year-end.</li>
<li>At €20.52, ANE trades below our €21 no-transaction case, with 41.3% upside to our €29 fairness case and 55.9% to our €32 strategic case.</li>
</ul>


EQT Infrastructure and Norges Bank Investment Management have reportedly formed a consortium seeking 100% of ANE, while Ardian remains in the process.
Selected bidders are meeting management and are expected to confirm prices by mid-October. Acciona reportedly aims to reach an agreement by year-end.
At €20.52, ANE trades below our €21 no-transaction case, with 41.3% upside to our €29 fairness case and 55.9% to our €32 strategic case.


Acciona Energía: EQT and Norges Enter the Final Stretch

<ul>
<li>Acciona's AGM increased confidence in a corporate transaction. Management indicated that all strategic alternatives for ANE would likely require an exclusion offer.</li>
<li>July indications of interest should provide the first market-based valuation, with Citi and Goldman Sachs requesting proposals on both price and stake size.</li>
<li>At €23.12, ANE still trades 15.6% below IPO, 25.4% below our €29 fairness case and 38.4% below our €32 strategic valuation.</li>
</ul>


Acciona's AGM increased confidence in a corporate transaction. Management indicated that all strategic alternatives for ANE would likely require an exclusion offer.
July indications of interest should provide the first market-based valuation, with Citi and Goldman Sachs requesting proposals on both price and stake size.
At €23.12, ANE still trades 15.6% below IPO, 25.4% below our €29 fairness case and 38.4% below our €32 strategic valuation.


Acciona Energía: Strategic Review Gains Momentum

<ul>
<li>Expansion reports July indications of interest for minority, control and full-company transactions, shifting the debate from a potential delisting to a broader valuation discovery process.</li>
<li>Our €29/share fairness case and €32/share strategic value scenario remain intact; at €24.22, the shares still trade materially below both reference points.</li>
<li>Capital allocation may now matter as much as valuation, with Acciona potentially monetising part of its 91.1% stake to support a growing infrastructure investment pipeline.</li>
</ul>


Expansion reports July indications of interest for minority, control and full-company transactions, shifting the debate from a potential delisting to a broader valuation discovery process.
Our €29/share fairness case and €32/share strategic value scenario remain intact; at €24.22, the shares still trade materially below both reference points.
Capital allocation may now matter as much as valuation, with Acciona potentially monetising part of its 91.1% stake to support a growing infrastructure investment pipeline.


Acciona Energía: Renewed Interest, Real Price Discovery

<ul>
<li>Acciona increased ownership in Acciona Energía to 91.11%, reviving exclusion-offer speculation less than five years after the 2021 IPO at €26.73/share, while the stock still trades below flotation price.</li>
<li>Private-Market renewable transactions continue implying stronger valuations than listed renewables equities, while Acciona Energía keeps monetising assets at attractive metrics despite weak sector sentiment and recurring balance-sheet concerns.</li>
<li>Our scenario analysis implies ~15% expected upside from current levels, with Spanish delisting rules, minority protections and the shrinking free float increasingly supporting strategic simplification optionality over medium term.</li>
</ul>


Acciona increased ownership in Acciona Energía to 91.11%, reviving exclusion-offer speculation less than five years after the 2021 IPO at €26.73/share, while the stock still trades below flotation price.
Private-Market renewable transactions continue implying stronger valuations than listed renewables equities, while Acciona Energía keeps monetising assets at attractive metrics despite weak sector sentiment and recurring balance-sheet concerns.
Our scenario analysis implies ~15% expected upside from current levels, with Spanish delisting rules, minority protections and the shrinking free float increasingly supporting strategic simplification optionality over medium term.


Acciona/Acciona Energías Renovables: 91% Owned, Still Below IPO

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.</li>
<li>But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.</li>
<li>It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.
It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.


Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

Spain

Corporacion Acciona Energias Renovables SA, doing business as Acciona Energia, operates as a renewable energy utility. The Company owns and develops renewable energy technologies including onshore wind, solar PV, hydraulic, thermal, biomass, and storage assets. Acciona Energia is vertically integrated across the renewable energy value chain and serves customers worldwide.

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ACCIONA Energias Renovabl (ANE SM)

Acciona Energía: EQT and Norges Enter the Final Stretch

EQT and Norges have joined forces for 100% of Acciona Energía as the sale process moves forward. Management meetings are underway, with confirmed...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Acciona Energía: Strategic Review Gains Momentum

A strategic review has entered a new phase. Management comments, July indications of interest and a shrinking free float suggest the next catalyst...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Acciona Energía: Renewed Interest, Real Price Discovery

A strategic review, a shrinking free float and potential July bids are reshaping the Acciona Energía story. We revisit what the business could be...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Acciona/Acciona Energías Renovables: 91% Owned, Still Below IPO

Acciona now owns 91.11% of Acciona Energía, yet the stock still trades below IPO despite asset sales at stronger private-market valuations....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

Bullish reversals have begun, as the $SPX, MSCI ACWI $ACWI, and $STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and...

Vermilion Research

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