European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Alpha Group International  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PUSU deadline looms on May 30, giving Corpay limited time to submit a firm bid or walk away—raising the stakes for investors monitoring deal certainty and potential upside.</li>
<li>Alpha's valuation remains compelling, with a blended takeover value of ~3,795p vs. a current share price of 3,050p, implying ~24% upside on deal completion.</li>
<li>Synergies estimated at ~99p per share could lift deal terms; I see a 65% probability of a formal bid, recommending accumulation around 3,000p for event-driven investors.</li>
</ul>


PUSU deadline looms on May 30, giving Corpay limited time to submit a firm bid or walk away—raising the stakes for investors monitoring deal certainty and potential upside.
Alpha's valuation remains compelling, with a blended takeover value of ~3,795p vs. a current share price of 3,050p, implying ~24% upside on deal completion.
Synergies estimated at ~99p per share could lift deal terms; I see a 65% probability of a formal bid, recommending accumulation around 3,000p for event-driven investors.


Fintech Alpha: Unlocking Hidden Value as Corpay Circles

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Corpay recently announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, which were generally in line with company expectations.</li><li>The firm reported quarterly revenue of $1.29 billion, a milestone as it marks the first time Corpay exceeded $1 billion in a quarter.</li><li>This figure represents a 7% increase when excluding Russia operations.</li></ul>

Corpay recently announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, which were generally in line with company expectations.The firm reported quarterly revenue of $1.29 billion, a milestone as it marks the first time Corpay exceeded $1 billion in a quarter.This figure represents a 7% increase when excluding Russia operations.

Corpay: Will Its Expansion in Corporate Payments Bring A Shift In The Competitive Dynamics? - Major Drivers

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve.</li>
<li>Two weeks ago, our election day report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and with the SPX/QQQ/IWM pulling back to their 20-day MAs, it's time to buy the pullback <em>again</em>.</li>
<li>We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and early 2025, and we expect support at the 20-day MAs on the aforementioned indexes (though support at 50-day MAs is possible).</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve.
Two weeks ago, our election day report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and with the SPX/QQQ/IWM pulling back to their 20-day MAs, it's time to buy the pullback again.
We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and early 2025, and we expect support at the 20-day MAs on the aforementioned indexes (though support at 50-day MAs is possible).


Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support

<ul><li>The latest earnings for Corpay outlined a comprehensive narrative of the company’s financial performance for the second quarter of 2024, its progress in addressing challenges, and strategic actions aimed at shaping its business landscape.</li><li>Starting with financials, Corpay reported that its Q2 2024 revenue stood at $976 million, marking a 7% increase, excluding the impact from the Russian market.</li><li>The adjusted cash EPS was announced to be at $4.55, up by 14%, also excluding Russia.</li></ul>

The latest earnings for Corpay outlined a comprehensive narrative of the company’s financial performance for the second quarter of 2024, its progress in addressing challenges, and strategic actions aimed at shaping its business landscape.Starting with financials, Corpay reported that its Q2 2024 revenue stood at $976 million, marking a 7% increase, excluding the impact from the Russian market.The adjusted cash EPS was announced to be at $4.55, up by 14%, also excluding Russia.

Corpay Inc.: Product Innovation & Market Fit As A Key Growth Catalyst! - Major Drivers

<ul>
<li>Corpay's first quarter of 2024 showcased a balanced reflection of the company's market dynamics and internal strategic adjustments, leading into the fiscal year.</li>
<li>Noteworthy from the comprehensive discussion on Corpay's strategies and financial status are several areas of performance and forward-looking strategies that could influence an investment stance.</li>
<li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li>
</ul>


Corpay's first quarter of 2024 showcased a balanced reflection of the company's market dynamics and internal strategic adjustments, leading into the fiscal year.
Noteworthy from the comprehensive discussion on Corpay's strategies and financial status are several areas of performance and forward-looking strategies that could influence an investment stance.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.


Corpay Inc.: How Will They Survive The North American Vehicle Business Challenges?  - Major Drivers

United States

Corpay, Inc. operates as a business payments company. The Company offers global payment, currency risk management, and invoice automation solutions which help businesses to control, simplify, and secure payment for vehicle related expenses, general payables, tolls, insurance, and lodging expenses. Corpay serves customers worldwide.

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Corpay (CPAY US)

Fintech Alpha: Unlocking Hidden Value as Corpay Circles

Corpay eyes Alpha Group in a strategic move; with high cash flow, niche exposure, and synergy potential, shares offer 20–25% upside if a bid near...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Corpay: Will Its Expansion in Corporate Payments Bring A Shift In The Competitive Dynamics? - Major Drivers

Corpay recently announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, which were generally in line with company expectations. The firm...

Baptista Research

Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support

Buy the Pullback Again, Same as Our Election Day Report; S&P 500 $SPX, Nasdaq 100 $QQQ, Russell 2000 $IWM Testing Confluence of Support at 20-day...

Vermilion Research

Corpay Inc.: Product Innovation & Market Fit As A Key Growth Catalyst! - Major Drivers

The latest earnings for Corpay outlined a comprehensive narrative of the company’s financial performance for the second quarter of 2024, its...

Baptista Research

Corpay Inc.: How Will They Survive The North American Vehicle Business Challenges? - Major Drivers

Corpay's first quarter of 2024 showcased a balanced reflection of the company's market dynamics and internal strategic adjustments, leading into...

Baptista Research

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