Equity analyst - Containers, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Nilesh Tiwary

Equity analyst - Containers

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>Most of the shipping stocks fell in the third week of January after the breakout of the corona virus caused multiple casualties in China. Nonetheless, we expect limited impact on container shipping companies in the longer term. However, if the severity of the outbreak increases, industrial production and retail sales could be affected, leading to rising inventory on ports. In addition, some carriers have warned of a temporary shortage of containers because, 1) Chinese New Year has been extended in China, 2) a shortage of customs and port labour could hold containers. Meanwhile, our overall view remains unchanged towards the stocks under coverage. If the situation is well managed and contained and depending on economic impact and valuations, we may consider revising our fair values. For now, the shock to demand and the macro environment would more likely be short term rather than the long term.</div>

Most of the shipping stocks fell in the third week of January after the breakout of the corona virus caused multiple casualties in China. Nonetheless, we expect limited impact on container shipping companies in the longer term. However, if the severity of the outbreak increases, industrial production and retail sales could be affected, leading to rising inventory on ports. In addition, some carriers have warned of a temporary shortage of containers because, 1) Chinese New Year has been extended in China, 2) a shortage of customs and port labour could hold containers. Meanwhile, our overall view remains unchanged towards the stocks under coverage. If the situation is well managed and contained and depending on economic impact and valuations, we may consider revising our fair values. For now, the shock to demand and the macro environment would more likely be short term rather than the long term.

Container Shipping - Coronavirus and Initial Thoughts

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jun 12th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jun 12th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jun 12th): Tencent, AIA, Xiaomi, Gcl Tech, J&T Express

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jun 5th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jun 5th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jun 5th): AIA, Tencent, Xiaomi, Li Auto, Mnso

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Suzhou Dongshan Precision A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearing the announcement of the changes in June, we forecast 5 potential constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-ftse-a50-china-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:249:1" rel="noopener">iShares A50 China (2823 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csop-ftse-china-a50-etf-26e3b671-fa47-4165-a12e-bf841640c5a3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23664:1" rel="noopener">CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers are estimated to trade between 0.05 to 0.65 days of ADV in the forecast changes.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 2 months and the recent pullback offers an entry point into the implementation trade.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the announcement of the changes in June, we forecast 5 potential constituent changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK) / CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK). 
Passive trackers are estimated to trade between 0.05 to 0.65 days of ADV in the forecast changes.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 2 months and the recent pullback offers an entry point into the implementation trade.


China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes in June as the AI-Driven Churn Continues

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 184 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 76.8% as of May 29th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 4.3ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, utilities, consumer staples.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric, ZTE, China Minsheng Banking, Datang Power, Haier Smart Home, Huaneng Power Intl.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 184 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 76.8% as of May 29th.
The average A-H premium changed by 4.3ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, utilities, consumer staples.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric, ZTE, China Minsheng Banking, Datang Power, Haier Smart Home, Huaneng Power Intl.


A-H Premium Weekly (May 29th): Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric, ZTE, China Minsheng Banking

China

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd. offers shipping services. The Company provides container shipping, terminal operation, bulk shipping, and container leasing services. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings conducts businesses worldwide.

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COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (601919 CH)

Container Shipping - Coronavirus and Initial Thoughts

Most of the shipping stocks fell in the third week of January after the breakout of the corona virus caused multiple casualties in China....

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jun 12th): Tencent, AIA, Xiaomi, Gcl Tech, J&T Express

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jun 5th): AIA, Tencent, Xiaomi, Li Auto, Mnso

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were AIA (1299 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes in June as the AI-Driven Churn Continues

There could be 5 changes in June as the AI theme rolls on and beneficiaries replace old economy stocks. The recent pullback after the earlier...

Brian Freitas

A-H Premium Weekly (May 29th): Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric, ZTE, China Minsheng Banking

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric, ZTE, China Minsheng Banking,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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