Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Price momentum for deep sea container carriers continued to plunge in January 2025</li>
<li>January's revenue decline vs the Summer peak also historically bad despite LNY boost</li>
<li>We take down emerging consensus view that "all trade disruptions are good for carriers"</li>
</ul>


Price momentum for deep sea container carriers continued to plunge in January 2025
January's revenue decline vs the Summer peak also historically bad despite LNY boost
We take down emerging consensus view that "all trade disruptions are good for carriers"


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | No, Not All Trade Disruptions Boost Carriers  (February 2025)

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>"Good" included Q4 earnings &gt; consensus, cash dividend, and US$2 bn buyback program</li>
<li>"Bad" included guidance of underlying EBIT dropping to zero if Red Sea re-opens in H125</li>
<li>Even Maersk's best-case view has FY25 core EBIT falling by -53% Y/Y vs strong FY24</li>
</ul>


"Good" included Q4 earnings &gt; consensus, cash dividend, and US$2 bn buyback program
"Bad" included guidance of underlying EBIT dropping to zero if Red Sea re-opens in H125
Even Maersk's best-case view has FY25 core EBIT falling by -53% Y/Y vs strong FY24


Maersk Q424 Results: A Mix Of "Good" (Q4 Earnings, Dividend, Buyback) & "Bad" (FY25 Guidance)

<ul>
<li>After four straight months of decline, our index of price momentum stabilized in December</li>
<li>But unsustainably strong US imports &amp; potential Suez re-opening suggest rates to keep falling</li>
<li>We retain our bearish view of the container shipping segment, and suggest staying SHORT</li>
</ul>


After four straight months of decline, our index of price momentum stabilized in December
But unsustainably strong US imports &amp; potential Suez re-opening suggest rates to keep falling
We retain our bearish view of the container shipping segment, and suggest staying SHORT


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: December Respite Likely Short-Lived | Stay SHORT (January 2025)

<ul>
<li>We expect container shipping profits to begin to revert to historical levels in 2025</li>
<li>Between 2009 and 2019, Evergreen Marine's mean OpInc margin was negative 0.8%</li>
<li>We believe path to mean industry returns &amp; near-term risks both misunderstood; AVOID</li>
</ul>


We expect container shipping profits to begin to revert to historical levels in 2025
Between 2009 and 2019, Evergreen Marine's mean OpInc margin was negative 0.8%
We believe path to mean industry returns &amp; near-term risks both misunderstood; AVOID


Container Shipping: Mean Reversion in 2025, Yes, but to WHICH Mean?

<ul>
<li>November's pricing weakness vs Summer peak is among the sharpest declines in 10+ years</li>
<li>A work stoppage at some US ports could hit in January, but impact likely muted</li>
<li>Share prices under pressure as investors begin pricing in softer conditions in 2025</li>
</ul>


November's pricing weakness vs Summer peak is among the sharpest declines in 10+ years
A work stoppage at some US ports could hit in January, but impact likely muted
Share prices under pressure as investors begin pricing in softer conditions in 2025


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: November Pricing Weaker | January ILA Strike? (December 2024)

Hong Kong

COSCO Shipping Ports Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides shipping container leasing services worldwide.  The Company also operates container terminals and provides container handling, storage, transportation and management services, as well as depot handling and stevedoring services.

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Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | No, Not All Trade Disruptions Boost Carriers (February 2025)

After a respite in December, container shipping price momentum plunged again in January. We expect rates and profitability to decline sharply in...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk Q424 Results: A Mix Of "Good" (Q4 Earnings, Dividend, Buyback) & "Bad" (FY25 Guidance)

On February 6 Maersk reported Q424 results that beat expectations. More interesting to us was management's thoroughly downbeat FY25 guidance, where...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: December Respite Likely Short-Lived | Stay SHORT (January 2025)

A ceasefire, if successful, will lead to lower rates in the Asia-Europe & Transpacific trades. We remain -ive on container shipping in 2025 despite...

Tracking Traffic

Container Shipping: Mean Reversion in 2025, Yes, but to WHICH Mean?

If container carrier profitability begins to revert to historical mean levels in 2025, it suggests a dramatic decline in financial performance in...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: November Pricing Weaker | January ILA Strike? (December 2024)

Container rates continued to soften in November, and 2024's Q4 seasonal decline from the Summer peak has been the second-steepest in the past 12...

Tracking Traffic

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