Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector, Small Cap Consumer Research

Small Cap Consumer Research

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector

Small Cap Consumer Research, LLC is a leading company-sponsored equity research provider focusing on the consumer sector (apparel, brand licensing and specialty retailing segments).

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating.</li><li>$0.25 price target and projections for Starco Brands as we look at key trends for 2H24 and beyond.</li><li>We believe 2024, while somewhat frustrating from an investor standpoint (given the downward revenue guidance and pulling of EBITDA guidance after 1Q), will be seen as a positive over the longer term, as the company has made material steps forward for all of their brands, positioning Starco for significant top line growth and going forward, material operating leverage, which we believe will become increasingly self-evident in 2025 and beyond.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating.$0.25 price target and projections for Starco Brands as we look at key trends for 2H24 and beyond.We believe 2024, while somewhat frustrating from an investor standpoint (given the downward revenue guidance and pulling of EBITDA guidance after 1Q), will be seen as a positive over the longer term, as the company has made material steps forward for all of their brands, positioning Starco for significant top line growth and going forward, material operating leverage, which we believe will become increasingly self-evident in 2025 and beyond.

elf Beauty Inc - STCB: 2H Signposts; Building for a Better Tomorrow; Reiterate Buy, $0.25 PT

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a> announced the share alternative at an exchange ratio of 10 rollover shares for each offer share, subject to a cap of 5% of outstanding shares.</li>
<li>The share alternative option will help the offer and was likely required to get Pleasant Lake Partners’ support (3.25% of outstanding shares). There is minimal vocal opposition to the offer. </li>
<li>Irrevocables/Letters of support represent 49.83% of disinterested shares. An attractive offer and the share alternative facilitate meeting the minimum acceptance condition, which requires an 80% disinterested acceptance rate (ex. irrevocables).</li>
</ul>



L'Occitane (973 HK) announced the share alternative at an exchange ratio of 10 rollover shares for each offer share, subject to a cap of 5% of outstanding shares.
The share alternative option will help the offer and was likely required to get Pleasant Lake Partners’ support (3.25% of outstanding shares). There is minimal vocal opposition to the offer. 
Irrevocables/Letters of support represent 49.83% of disinterested shares. An attractive offer and the share alternative facilitate meeting the minimum acceptance condition, which requires an 80% disinterested acceptance rate (ex. irrevocables).


L’Occitane (973 HK): Share Alternative a Crucial Step Towards the Offer Being Declared Unconditional

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, $0.25 price target and projections for Starco Brands after meeting with management in their Los Angeles headquarters.</li><li>With 2024 shaping up as a period of setting the stage for material growth in all the company's brands, we believe management is confident they are making the correct investments to drive multiple periods of top and bottom line upside, with the correct retail partners and product upgrades and expansions.</li><li>As such, we look for the company to continue to put the pieces in place in 2024 to achieve highly significant door expansion and new category growth going forward, positioning Starco for material gains.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $0.25 price target and projections for Starco Brands after meeting with management in their Los Angeles headquarters.With 2024 shaping up as a period of setting the stage for material growth in all the company's brands, we believe management is confident they are making the correct investments to drive multiple periods of top and bottom line upside, with the correct retail partners and product upgrades and expansions.As such, we look for the company to continue to put the pieces in place in 2024 to achieve highly significant door expansion and new category growth going forward, positioning Starco for material gains.

elf Beauty Inc - STCB: Management Meetings Show STCB Powering Through; Reiterate Buy, $0.25 PT

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a> announced that the share alternative pre-condition was satisfied. However, The share alternative offer is at the offeror’s discretion and with the consent of the financing parties. </li>
<li>The share alternative offer poses a dilemma due to the requirement to satisfy the minimum acceptance condition while not breaching the upper limit of the share alternative offer.</li>
<li>The share alternative offer is a play on higher multiples by relisting the business. At HK$50.00, L’Occitane would trade in line with its median global beauty peers’ multiples.</li>
</ul>



L'Occitane (973 HK) announced that the share alternative pre-condition was satisfied. However, The share alternative offer is at the offeror’s discretion and with the consent of the financing parties. 
The share alternative offer poses a dilemma due to the requirement to satisfy the minimum acceptance condition while not breaching the upper limit of the share alternative offer.
The share alternative offer is a play on higher multiples by relisting the business. At HK$50.00, L’Occitane would trade in line with its median global beauty peers’ multiples.


L’Occitane (973 HK): Dilemma as the Share Alternative Pre-Condition Met

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating and price target for Starco Brands, but lowering our 2024 and 2025 projections to primarily reflect higher marketing costs to support multiple newly announced door expansions for each of the company's key brands beginning in 2Q24 and concentrated in 4Q24.</li><li>We believe Starco's offerings are poised to take highly material leaps, with major expansions at over 10,00 doors in 2024, which we believe will position the company for material, multi-year top line growth and, with the ability to begin to leverage their somewhat fixed infrastructure, margin expansion.</li><li>Further, we believe these agreements position Starco to drive even further sales per door as they increase offerings and categories.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating and price target for Starco Brands, but lowering our 2024 and 2025 projections to primarily reflect higher marketing costs to support multiple newly announced door expansions for each of the company's key brands beginning in 2Q24 and concentrated in 4Q24.We believe Starco's offerings are poised to take highly material leaps, with major expansions at over 10,00 doors in 2024, which we believe will position the company for material, multi-year top line growth and, with the ability to begin to leverage their somewhat fixed infrastructure, margin expansion.Further, we believe these agreements position Starco to drive even further sales per door as they increase offerings and categories.

elf Beauty Inc - STCB: 1Q Review: Building for the Future; Reiterate Buy, Price Target

United States

Coty Inc. manufactures and distributes beauty products. The Company offers fragrances, color cosmetics, hygiene, sun care, and skin treatment products. Coty supplies its products to department stores, specialty retailers, mass-market retailers, and duty free shops in airports worldwide.

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Coty Inc Cl A (COTY US)

elf Beauty Inc - STCB: 2H Signposts; Building for a Better Tomorrow; Reiterate Buy, $0.25 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating. $0.25 price target and projections for Starco Brands as we look at key trends for 2H24 and beyond. We believe...

Small Cap Consumer Research

elf Beauty Inc - STCB: Management Meetings Show STCB Powering Through; Reiterate Buy, $0.25 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $0.25 price target and projections for Starco Brands after meeting with management in their Los Angeles...

Small Cap Consumer Research

elf Beauty Inc - STCB: 1Q Review: Building for the Future; Reiterate Buy, Price Target

We are reiterating our Buy rating and price target for Starco Brands, but lowering our 2024 and 2025 projections to primarily reflect higher...

Small Cap Consumer Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

elf Beauty Inc - STCB: 2H Signposts; Building for a Better Tomorrow; Reiterate Buy, $0.25 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating. $0.25 price target and projections for Starco Brands as we look at key trends for 2H24 and beyond. We believe...

Small Cap Consumer Research

L’Occitane (973 HK): Share Alternative a Crucial Step Towards the Offer Being Declared Unconditional

An attractive offer and the share alternative facilitate meeting the 90% minimum acceptance condition. This looks like a done deal. At the current...

Arun George

elf Beauty Inc - STCB: Management Meetings Show STCB Powering Through; Reiterate Buy, $0.25 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $0.25 price target and projections for Starco Brands after meeting with management in their Los Angeles...

Small Cap Consumer Research

L’Occitane (973 HK): Dilemma as the Share Alternative Pre-Condition Met

While a positive, the share alternative offer needs to balance the requirement to satisfy the minimum acceptance condition while not breaching the...

Arun George

elf Beauty Inc - STCB: 1Q Review: Building for the Future; Reiterate Buy, Price Target

We are reiterating our Buy rating and price target for Starco Brands, but lowering our 2024 and 2025 projections to primarily reflect higher...

Small Cap Consumer Research