Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Weekly new home sales for a group of 15 major cities to the week ending Sep 24, continue to show deterioration in aggregate (YTD y/y, 4-week y/y, 52-week y/y) </li>
<li>But some cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, saw a jump in new home sales reported for the last week (based on the underlying data from CREIS)</li>
<li>This is likely the first signs of impact from the latest policy easing measures that now start showing in the data</li>
</ul>


Weekly new home sales for a group of 15 major cities to the week ending Sep 24, continue to show deterioration in aggregate (YTD y/y, 4-week y/y, 52-week y/y) 
But some cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, saw a jump in new home sales reported for the last week (based on the underlying data from CREIS)
This is likely the first signs of impact from the latest policy easing measures that now start showing in the data


China Property - First Signs Of Improvement In Some Cities (Weekly New Home Sales To Sep 24)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 15-21 September 2023

<ul>
<li>We hosted a Real Estate Foresight Webinar on Sep 20, with our latest take on China's housing markets after the recent policy easing wave</li>
<li>Can we see the impact of the policy easing? How much of further stimulus to expect? What will be the 'next normal' for new home sales after the downturn?</li>
<li>A quick poll of the participants (experienced professionals in China property) showed a 100% consensus that more easing will be needed to trigger a rebound in new home sales</li>
</ul>


We hosted a Real Estate Foresight Webinar on Sep 20, with our latest take on China's housing markets after the recent policy easing wave
Can we see the impact of the policy easing? How much of further stimulus to expect? What will be the 'next normal' for new home sales after the downturn?
A quick poll of the participants (experienced professionals in China property) showed a 100% consensus that more easing will be needed to trigger a rebound in new home sales


China Housing - And The Sum Of All Tiers [Webinar Presentation Video]

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Analysis: China’s new electricity spot market rules lay groundwork for unified standard</li><li>Tornadoes / Tornadoes kill 10 in coastal Chinese province</li><li>Shenzhen looks to attract more Hong Kong, Macao visitors — and their cash</li></ul>

Analysis: China’s new electricity spot market rules lay groundwork for unified standardTornadoes / Tornadoes kill 10 in coastal Chinese provinceShenzhen looks to attract more Hong Kong, Macao visitors — and their cash

CX Daily: China’s New Electricity Spot Market Rules Lay Groundwork for Unified Standard

<ul>
<li>The weekly data for new home sales for 18 cities with consistent data to the week ending September 10 does not show pickup signs, despite some media buzz after easing</li>
<li>But we expect the impact to start showing in the next weeks</li>
<li>In the meantime, using weekly metrics as predictors of the direction of the national monthly figures, suggests no real improvement YTD y/y so far for Sep</li>
</ul>


The weekly data for new home sales for 18 cities with consistent data to the week ending September 10 does not show pickup signs, despite some media buzz after easing
But we expect the impact to start showing in the next weeks
In the meantime, using weekly metrics as predictors of the direction of the national monthly figures, suggests no real improvement YTD y/y so far for Sep


China Housing - Weekly Data Does Not (Yet) Show Impact Of Policy Easing

China

Country Garden Holdings is a major real estate development company primarily engaged in property development, construction, property investment, property management, and hotel operations. The company offers a diverse portfolio including residential projects, commercial properties, and integrated urban developments. It was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Foshan, China.

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Country Garden Holdings (2007 HK)

China Property - First Signs Of Improvement In Some Cities (Weekly New Home Sales To Sep 24)

China Property: First signs of the impact of policy easing in some cities where new home sales jumped in the week to Sep 24, though in aggregate...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 15-21 September 2023

A weekly curated selection and summaries of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress.

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing - And The Sum Of All Tiers [Webinar Presentation Video]

Real Estate Foresight hosted a webinar on Sep 20, with our latest take on China's housing markets after the recent policy-easing wave. Watch the...

Robert Ciemniak

CX Daily: China’s New Electricity Spot Market Rules Lay Groundwork for Unified Standard

Analysis: China’s new electricity spot market rules lay groundwork for unified standard. Tornadoes kill 10 in coastal Chinese province...

Caixin Global

China Housing - Weekly Data Does Not (Yet) Show Impact Of Policy Easing

China Housing: The weekly new home sales data for 18 cities to the week ending Sep 10 does not show signs of improvement (yet) after the policy...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)