Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 21 May. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 June.For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>, there are 2 inclusions and 3 exclusions. This brings the number of index constituents back down to 50.The inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a>, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangdong-investment-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12109:1" rel="noopener">Guangdong Investment (270 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tower-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27037:1" rel="noopener">China Tower (788 HK)</a> have been deleted from the index. This is exactly in line with our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hscei-june-2021-index-rebalance-preview-three-adds-four-deletes-possible" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forecast</a>.One-way turnover is estimated at 8.37% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$5.98bn. The largest passive inflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> as a result of the capping change from 5% to 8%, while the largest outflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tower-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27037:1" rel="noopener">China Tower (788 HK)</a>.There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes and there should be some impact on the stocks even though the changes were largely expected (at least by us). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> was widely expected to be included but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a> was not on everyone's list. With 4 days ADV to buy on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a>, the stock could outperform till implementation date.

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 21 May. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 June.For the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX), there are 2 inclusions and 3 exclusions. This brings the number of index constituents back down to 50.The inclusions are BYD (1211 HK) and Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK), while Guangdong Investment (270 HK), China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK) and China Tower (788 HK) have been deleted from the index. This is exactly in line with our forecast.One-way turnover is estimated at 8.37% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$5.98bn. The largest passive inflows will be on Meituan (3690 HK) and Alibaba Group (9988 HK) as a result of the capping change from 5% to 8%, while the largest outflows will be on Tencent (700 HK), China Construction Bank H (939 HK) and China Tower (788 HK).There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes and there should be some impact on the stocks even though the changes were largely expected (at least by us). BYD (1211 HK) was widely expected to be included but Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) was not on everyone's list. With 4 days ADV to buy on Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK), the stock could outperform till implementation date. 

HSCEI Index Rebalance: BYD's Double Inclusion; Capping Changes Lead to High Turnover

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Anjuke, a real estate information and transaction service provider, is looking to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong listing. The company is a division of 58.com which was privatised in 2020 and is now being spun out as its real estate division.It provides online marketing services for new and existing properties under Anjuke and 50 Real Estate brands.  It also operates Aifang, a new property transaction services platform that facilitates developers’ new property sales through brokerage brands and agents. Anjuke also provides property brokerage brands and agents with its cloud-native, purpose-built SaaS solutions through Qiaofang,Based on iResearch’s report, the company was the market leader by average mobile monthly active users (MAU) in 4Q20 at 67m. As of Dec 20, it had over 726,000 paying agents on its platform. Anjuke was also the leader in online marketing service revenue in 2020 with 66.8% market share.Its financial performance has been sort of a mixed bag with Anjuke reporting 21.9% YoY growth in revenue in FY19, 17.6% growth in gross profit, 23% growth in EBITDA and 21% increase in PATMI. However, in FY20, revenue growth slowed down to 6.24% YoY and even though the company managed to grow its gross profit by 7.8%, EBITDA was down 9% YoY, while PATMI was down 15% YoY.In addition, there are also related parties and other issues that one needs to be aware of.

Anjuke, a real estate information and transaction service provider, is looking to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong listing. The company is a division of 58.com which was privatised in 2020 and is now being spun out as its real estate division.It provides online marketing services for new and existing properties under Anjuke and 50 Real Estate brands.  It also operates Aifang, a new property transaction services platform that facilitates developers’ new property sales through brokerage brands and agents. Anjuke also provides property brokerage brands and agents with its cloud-native, purpose-built SaaS solutions through Qiaofang,Based on iResearch’s report, the company was the market leader by average mobile monthly active users (MAU) in 4Q20 at 67m. As of Dec 20, it had over 726,000 paying agents on its platform. Anjuke was also the leader in online marketing service revenue in 2020 with 66.8% market share.Its financial performance has been sort of a mixed bag with Anjuke reporting 21.9% YoY growth in revenue in FY19, 17.6% growth in gross profit, 23% growth in EBITDA and 21% increase in PATMI. However, in FY20, revenue growth slowed down to 6.24% YoY and even though the company managed to grow its gross profit by 7.8%, EBITDA was down 9% YoY, while PATMI was down 15% YoY.In addition, there are also related parties and other issues that one needs to be aware of.

Anjuke Pre-IPO - Mixed (Positive and Negative) Developments

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Oil & Gas sector, including oil price development and projections, along with the associated drivers.  The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Oil & Gas sector, including oil price development and projections, along with the associated drivers.    The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Oil & Gas Update (2021) - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of April includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of April includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - April 2021 - Lucror Analytics

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anjuke" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33003:1" rel="noopener">Anjuke (ANJ HK)</a> is the largest online marketing platform for new and existing properties by revenue in 2020, according to iResearch. Anjuke is a subsidiary of 58.com. Anjuke’s shareholders include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> (14.3% stake), General Atlantic (7.7%), Warburg Pincus (7.9%), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5225:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agile-property-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15784:1" rel="noopener">Agile Property Holdings (3383 HK)</a>. It is seeking to raise $1 billion through an HKEx IPO, according to press reports.Anjuke is using its core online marketing services business, which is cash generative, to fund its foray into transaction services, a market where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ke-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29213:1" rel="noopener">KE Holdings Inc (BEKE US)</a> dominates. However, this growth is margin dilutive as transaction services is structurally a lower margin business. We think that the compromise is acceptable as investors continue to be willing to pay up for high-growth tech companies. <div class="content-highlight">The key negative is that Anjuke is saddled with debt related to the privatisation of 58.com in September 2020 - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/58-com-s-privatisation-enters-into-definitive-agreement" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40366" rel="noopener">58.com’s Privatisation Enters into Definitive Agreement</a>. While the healthy cash generation should comfortably service the debt, potential IPO investors could be turned off by the view that the IPO is a way of the privatisation consortium (which arguably privatised 58.com to the detriment of minorities) to make a quick buck. Notwithstanding the optics of the privatisation and relisting trade which tend to enrich insiders at the expense of minorities, we believe that the Anjuke IPO is worth a close look.</div>

Anjuke (ANJ HK) is the largest online marketing platform for new and existing properties by revenue in 2020, according to iResearch. Anjuke is a subsidiary of 58.com. Anjuke’s shareholders include Tencent Holdings (700 HK) (14.3% stake), General Atlantic (7.7%), Warburg Pincus (7.9%), Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK) and Agile Property Holdings (3383 HK). It is seeking to raise $1 billion through an HKEx IPO, according to press reports.Anjuke is using its core online marketing services business, which is cash generative, to fund its foray into transaction services, a market where KE Holdings Inc (BEKE US) dominates. However, this growth is margin dilutive as transaction services is structurally a lower margin business. We think that the compromise is acceptable as investors continue to be willing to pay up for high-growth tech companies. The key negative is that Anjuke is saddled with debt related to the privatisation of 58.com in September 2020 - 58.com’s Privatisation Enters into Definitive Agreement. While the healthy cash generation should comfortably service the debt, potential IPO investors could be turned off by the view that the IPO is a way of the privatisation consortium (which arguably privatised 58.com to the detriment of minorities) to make a quick buck. Notwithstanding the optics of the privatisation and relisting trade which tend to enrich insiders at the expense of minorities, we believe that the Anjuke IPO is worth a close look.

China

Country Garden Holdings Company Limited is a real estate developer.  The Company builds villas, townhouses and apartments in Mainland China. Country Gardens also develops large-scale community facilities such as schools, hotels, hospitals, and theme parks.

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Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK)

HSCEI Index Rebalance: BYD's Double Inclusion; Capping Changes Lead to High Turnover

The 2 adds and 3 deletes for the HSCEI are just what we expected. BYD is an inclusion in the HSI too and could move higher over the next 2 weeks....

Brian Freitas

Anjuke Pre-IPO - Mixed (Positive and Negative) Developments

Anjuke, a real estate information and transaction service provider, is looking to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong listing. The company is a...

Sumeet Singh

Asia HY Monthly - Oil & Gas Update (2021) - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Oil & Gas sector, including oil price development and projections, along with...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Book - April 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of April includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

Anjuke IPO Initiation: Home Truths

Anjuke is seeking to raise $1 bn through an HKEx IPO. Notwithstanding the optics of the privatisation and relisting trade, we believe that the...

Arun George

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