IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Full Truck Alliance   / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/full-truck-alliance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33429:1" rel="noopener">Full Truck Alliance (YMM US)</a>, known as <em>Manbang</em> in China, is the world’s largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value (GTV) in 2020, according to CIC. FTA was formed in 2017 through the merger of <em>Yunmanman</em> and <em>Huochebang</em>, which were founded in 2013 and 2011, respectively. FTA is backed by SoftBank Vision Fund (22.2% of the outstanding shares), Sequoia Capital (7.2%), Hillhouse and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>. </p>
<p>At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $17.00-19.00 per ADS, FTA will have a market cap of $19.6 billion. FTA will also raise an additional $200 million in concurrent private placements to Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan Board and Mubadala Investment Company. At the mid-point of the IPO price range and including the concurrent private placement, the net proceeds are $1,620.7 million. FTA has received indications of interest from Fidelity ($100 million) and Invesco ($500 million). </p>
</div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/full-truck-alliance-ipo-initiation-a-less-than-perfect-delivery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52399" rel="noopener">Full Truck Alliance IPO Initiation: A Less than Perfect Delivery</a>, we stated that at first sight, FTA recent results look stunning due to fast-paced growth, improving margin and cash generation. However, a closer look, suggests that FTA has less than ideal disclosure, a regulatory overhang and potential corporate governance issues. We concluded that we cannot recommend FTA wholeheartedly and inclined to watch this IPO unfold from the sidelines.   </p></div><div><div>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Our valuation analysis suggests that FTA trades at frothy multiples (EV/Sales and growth adjusted EV/Sales) compared to its peers. On the other hand, the indications of interest and the concurrent placing with blue-chip investors suggest that the IPO price range is grounded in some logic. We think that the IPO pricing seems reasonable based on recent share repurchases and the PEG multiple. While the recent first-day pops suggest an awakening of IPO animal spirits, we remain uncomfortable in recommending FTA based on our previously highlighted concerns and a rich valuation. </p></div>
<p><em><strong>For readers interested in peer</strong></em>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foru-worldwide-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33314:1" rel="noopener">ForU Worldwide (FOYO US)</a>, which also recently filed for a $500 million Nasdaq IPO, we highlight our note - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/foru-worldwide-ipo-initiation-not-foru" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51888" rel="noopener">ForU Worldwide IPO Initiation: Not ForU</a>  </p>
</div></div>


Full Truck Alliance (YMM US), known as Manbang in China, is the world’s largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value (GTV) in 2020, according to CIC. FTA was formed in 2017 through the merger of Yunmanman and Huochebang, which were founded in 2013 and 2011, respectively. FTA is backed by SoftBank Vision Fund (22.2% of the outstanding shares), Sequoia Capital (7.2%), Hillhouse and Tencent (700 HK). 
At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $17.00-19.00 per ADS, FTA will have a market cap of $19.6 billion. FTA will also raise an additional $200 million in concurrent private placements to Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan Board and Mubadala Investment Company. At the mid-point of the IPO price range and including the concurrent private placement, the net proceeds are $1,620.7 million. FTA has received indications of interest from Fidelity ($100 million) and Invesco ($500 million). 
In Full Truck Alliance IPO Initiation: A Less than Perfect Delivery, we stated that at first sight, FTA recent results look stunning due to fast-paced growth, improving margin and cash generation. However, a closer look, suggests that FTA has less than ideal disclosure, a regulatory overhang and potential corporate governance issues. We concluded that we cannot recommend FTA wholeheartedly and inclined to watch this IPO unfold from the sidelines.   
Our valuation analysis suggests that FTA trades at frothy multiples (EV/Sales and growth adjusted EV/Sales) compared to its peers. On the other hand, the indications of interest and the concurrent placing with blue-chip investors suggest that the IPO price range is grounded in some logic. We think that the IPO pricing seems reasonable based on recent share repurchases and the PEG multiple. While the recent first-day pops suggest an awakening of IPO animal spirits, we remain uncomfortable in recommending FTA based on our previously highlighted concerns and a rich valuation. 
For readers interested in peer, ForU Worldwide (FOYO US), which also recently filed for a $500 million Nasdaq IPO, we highlight our note - ForU Worldwide IPO Initiation: Not ForU  


Full Truck Alliance IPO: Valuation Insights

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<p>Krafton announced its IPO price range of 458,000 won to 557,000 won. There will be 10 million shares offered in this IPO including 7 million new shares and 3 million old shares. At the high end of the IPO price range, the company would be raising 5.6 trillion won ($5 billion). This would be the biggest ever amount of money raised in Korea for an IPO since Samsung Life Insurance when it raised 4.8 trillion won in 2010. </p><p>According to the bankers' valuation, the expected market cap of the company is expected to be from 23.7 trillion won to 28.8 trillion won. The book building for the institutional investors starts on 28 June 2021.  </p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 208pt;">Deal Specifics of the Krafton IPO:</td>
<td style="width: 278pt;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Lead underwriters of the IPO: </td>
<td style="width: 278pt;">Mirae Asset Daewoo Securities, Credit Suisse, NH Investment Securities, Citi Global Markets Securities, JP Morgan </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Expected IPO price per share: </td>
<td style="width: 278pt;">458,000 won (low)/557,000 won (high)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Number of Shares for IPO:</td>
<td style="width: 278pt;">10m shares (7m new shares; 3m old shares)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>IPO base deal size: </td>
<td style="width: 278pt;">US$4.1 bn (low);  US$5.0 bn (high)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Expected common shares outstanding, fully diluted (post-IPO):  </td>
<td style="width: 278pt;">51.766 m shares</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Expected market cap after IPO:</td>
<td style="width: 278pt;">23.7 trillion won (low)/28.8 trillion won (high)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Book open: </td>
<td style="text-align: left; width: 278pt;">28-Jun-21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Book closed:</td>
<td style="text-align: left; width: 278pt;">9-Jul-21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Listing date: </td>
<td style="text-align: left; width: 278pt;">22-Jul-21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Source: Company data</td>
<td> </td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Krafton announced its IPO price range of 458,000 won to 557,000 won. There will be 10 million shares offered in this IPO including 7 million new shares and 3 million old shares. At the high end of the IPO price range, the company would be raising 5.6 trillion won ($5 billion). This would be the biggest ever amount of money raised in Korea for an IPO since Samsung Life Insurance when it raised 4.8 trillion won in 2010. According to the bankers' valuation, the expected market cap of the company is expected to be from 23.7 trillion won to 28.8 trillion won. The book building for the institutional investors starts on 28 June 2021.  






Deal Specifics of the Krafton IPO:
 


Lead underwriters of the IPO: 
Mirae Asset Daewoo Securities, Credit Suisse, NH Investment Securities, Citi Global Markets Securities, JP Morgan 


Expected IPO price per share: 
458,000 won (low)/557,000 won (high)


Number of Shares for IPO:
10m shares (7m new shares; 3m old shares)


IPO base deal size: 
US$4.1 bn (low);  US$5.0 bn (high)


Expected common shares outstanding, fully diluted (post-IPO):  
51.766 m shares


Expected market cap after IPO:
23.7 trillion won (low)/28.8 trillion won (high)


Book open: 
28-Jun-21


Book closed:
9-Jul-21


Listing date: 
22-Jul-21


Source: Company data
 




Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aihuishou" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33426:1" rel="noopener">Aihuishou (RERE US)</a> (AHS), China’s largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform, aims to raise up to US$243m via a US listing. It is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>, Morningside and Tiger Global.</p></div><div>
<p>We covered some aspects of the deal in our earlier notes:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aihuishou-pre-ipo-mostly-positive-pre-owned-but-well-loved" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AiHuiShou Pre-IPO - Mostly Positive - Pre-Owned but Well Loved</a>. </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aihuishou-pre-ipo-first-stab-at-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AiHuiShou Pre-IPO - First Stab at Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aihuishou-pre-ipo-pricing-my-mobile-handset-at-physical-stores" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Aihuishou (爱回收) Pre-IPO: Pricing My Mobile Handset at Physical Stores</a></li>
</ul>
<p>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM Framework.</p>
</div>

Aihuishou (RERE US) (AHS), China’s largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform, aims to raise up to US$243m via a US listing. It is backed by JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US), Morningside and Tiger Global.
We covered some aspects of the deal in our earlier notes:


AiHuiShou Pre-IPO - Mostly Positive - Pre-Owned but Well Loved. 
AiHuiShou Pre-IPO - First Stab at Valuation
Aihuishou (爱回收) Pre-IPO: Pricing My Mobile Handset at Physical Stores

In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM Framework.


AiHuiShou IPO - Priced to Go but Won't Do a Kanzhun

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We plan to do a deep dive on Didi Chuxing now that the prospectus is out but there are a few points related to Softbank that are worth highlighting in advance. In general, the IPO needs to be wildly successful to provide a meaningful bump in sentiment and anything less is probably factored into Softbank’s share price already. At equity valuations of $70-100bn, the upside for SBG shareholders would be ¥93-291/share. That is positive of course but relatively less than what Uber shareholders could expect (6% Didi exposure v SBG 4%) and also a smaller gain that that offered by the headline listings from Beike, DoorDash and Coupang in the last three periods. The good news is a placement before quarter-end helps the public portfolio which is down $8bn+ QTD.</p>

We plan to do a deep dive on Didi Chuxing now that the prospectus is out but there are a few points related to Softbank that are worth highlighting in advance. In general, the IPO needs to be wildly successful to provide a meaningful bump in sentiment and anything less is probably factored into Softbank’s share price already. At equity valuations of $70-100bn, the upside for SBG shareholders would be ¥93-291/share. That is positive of course but relatively less than what Uber shareholders could expect (6% Didi exposure v SBG 4%) and also a smaller gain that that offered by the headline listings from Beike, DoorDash and Coupang in the last three periods. The good news is a placement before quarter-end helps the public portfolio which is down $8bn+ QTD.

Softbank Group - Initial Thoughts on the Didi Chuxing IPO Filing

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dingdong-maicia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33461:1" rel="noopener">Dingdong Maicia (DDL US)</a>(DM) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/missfresh-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33468:1" rel="noopener">Missfresh (MF US)</a> (MFL) are two groceries on-demand e-commerce companies in China, both aim to raise up to US$500m each via a US listing. </p><p>In our earlier notes, we have looked at the background and performance of both of the companies:</p><ul>
<li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dingdong-maicai-pre-ipo-increasing-market-share-fast-growth-but-no-signs-of-profit" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dingdong Maicai Pre-IPO - Increasing market share, fast growth but no signs of profit</a></p></li>
<li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/missfresh-limited-pre-ipo-worrying-and-unsustainable-trend" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Missfresh (每日优鲜) Pre-IPO - Worrying and unsustainable trend</a></p></li>
</ul><p>Since both of the companies are operating in similar markets, in this note we will compare the performance of the two companies.</p>

Dingdong Maicia (DDL US)(DM) and Missfresh (MF US) (MFL) are two groceries on-demand e-commerce companies in China, both aim to raise up to US$500m each via a US listing. In our earlier notes, we have looked at the background and performance of both of the companies:
Dingdong Maicai Pre-IPO - Increasing market share, fast growth but no signs of profit
Missfresh (每日优鲜) Pre-IPO - Worrying and unsustainable trend
Since both of the companies are operating in similar markets, in this note we will compare the performance of the two companies.

Dingdong Maicai Vs Miss Fresh Pre-IPO - One Clear Winner

South Korea

Coupang, Inc. operates as an e-commerce company. The Company offers dynamic end-to-end e-commerce and logistic solutions. Coupang serves customers worldwide.

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Coupang (CPNG US)

Full Truck Alliance IPO: Valuation Insights

While the recent first-day pops suggest an awakening of IPO animal spirits, we remain uncomfortable in recommending FTA based on our previously...

Arun George

Krafton IPO Preview

According to the bankers' valuation, the expected market cap of Krafton is expected to be from 23.7 trillion won to 28.8 trillion won.

Douglas Kim

AiHuiShou IPO - Priced to Go but Won't Do a Kanzhun

Aihuishou (RERE US), China’s largest pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform, aims to raise up to US$243m via a US...

Sumeet Singh

Softbank Group - Initial Thoughts on the Didi Chuxing IPO Filing

Softbank's reaction to Didi's IPO filing has been muted as expectations are set and only a wildly sucecssful debut would boost sentiment. Also,...

Kirk Boodry

Dingdong Maicai Vs Miss Fresh Pre-IPO - One Clear Winner

Dingdong Maicia (DDL US)(DM) and Missfresh (MF US) (MFL), are two groceries on-demand e-commerce companies in China, both aim to raise up to...

Sumeet Singh

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